– by New Deal democrat As we move further into the calendar year, we are getting more clarity on what has been happening with jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at these because historically they have been a good short leading indicator for the unemployment rate and more broadly for the economy as a whole. […]

I can not drop the f-bomb here as it would not be looked at kindly by most. It is no surprise to me, New Deal democrat doing additional work to present on his site and at Angry Bear. We are and I am very fortunate to have New Deal democrat presenting his data at Angy […]

– by New Deal democrat Now that we are well past the Holidays, seasonality has settled down and so have the comparisons for jobless claims. Initial claims declined -7,000 to 213,000 last week, and the four-week average declined -1,000 to 216,000. With the usual one week delay, continued claims declined -36,000 to 1.850 million: On […]

– by New Deal democrat As is so often the case this time of year, seasonality likely played havoc with this week’s new jobless claims. Last year Thanksgiving was November 23rd; this year it was the 28th, putting it in a different week for many statistics. So the jobless claims this morning were for the […]

 – by New Deal democrat Let me start to update this week’s data with jobless claims. Initial claims fell another -2,000 to 213,000, the lowest since last May. The four-week moving average declined -1,250 to 217,000, also a six-month low. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.907 million: As with one […]

 – by New Deal democrat It appears that, as I suspected earlier this month, the big YoY jump in initial jobless claims was largely due to the effects of the hurricanes, and is now abating. First, for the week initial claims declined another -12,000 to 216,000. The four week moving average declined -2,250 to 236,500. […]

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons  – by New Deal democrat For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the initial claims numbers. That certainly looked like the case this week, as a sharp decline mirrored a similar sharp decline 52 weeks […]

Initial claims: yellow caution flag turns more orange  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims, which were one of the most positive indicators of all last year, have turned darker in the last several months, and are edging closer to triggering their recession warning levels. Claims were unchanged at a revised 264,000 last week, the […]

Benchmark revisions, oh my! Four week average of jobless claims makes all-time 55 year series low The DoL made revisions to the last five years of jobless claims, in particular revising the seasonal adjustments, and the differences are eye-popping. Last week initial claims (blue) were reported at 202,000. With the revisions, they are now 171,000! […]

Jobless claims blow away the Delta wave (but beware Labor Day seasonality) This morning’s initial jobless claims report makes it shockingly evident that the Delta wave has had no appreciable effect on at least the “firing” side of the jobs market (vs. the “hiring” side, where it might have). Initial claims declined 35,000 to 310,000, […]