– by New Deal democrat Housing data for October, like that for September, has to be viewed with an asterisk, due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Since the effects of both were in the South Census Region, where relevant in the analysis below I will also discuss the numbers excluding that region. The most leading […]

 – by New Deal democrat The effects of Hurricane Beryl had just enough of an effect on home building in July to cause me not to hoist a yellow recession caution flag in this important leading sector. While the hurricane had no significant effect on permits, it likely did have an effect on starts and […]

Housing construction continues to support subdued expansion  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote of how manufacturing has faded somewhat as a leading indicator, at least in the sense that it takes a steeper downturn than it used to in order to forecast a wider downturn in the economy. Which makes the other big […]

In housing construction, the last domino still refuses to fall: Travelin’ Man edition  – by New Deal democrat [First, a blogging note: I will be traveling for the next week and a half. I’ll keep posting the data, but the posts are likely to be brief, and may be a day late. On days when there […]

Housing under construction increases back close to record; good economic news, but ammunition for a hawkish Fed  – by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that “the Fed’s sledgehammer attempt via one of the most aggressive rate hike campaigns in its history appears to be on the verge of failure. That’s because housing construction, […]

Housing construction: good news and bad news  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on housing construction contained both good news and bad news. First, the good news. Both permits (gold in the graph below) and starts (blue) increased, the former by 185,000 on an annualized rate, the latter by 129,000: It is very possible […]

Slight decline in housing construction: the negative actual economic impact has not yet begun  – by New Deal democrat Housing permits (gold) increased slightly in January from their December lows, while the more volatile housing starts (blue) declined again. The much less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) also declined again to a new […]

Housing construction continues to stabilize, but with record bottleneck in starts Last month I highlighted that housing constructions were stabilizing, following the stabilization in interest rates. This month continued that trend.  In October, housing starts (green in the graphs below) decreased -0.7% m/m, while the more leading total permits (blue) increased 4.0%. The less volatile […]

August housing construction shows stabilization, following interest rate moderation This morning’s report on August housing permits and starts shows that the stabilizing of mortgage rates in the past few months has now stabilized housing construction. Housing starts increased 3.9% m/m, and total permits increased 6.0%. The less volatile single-family permits increased 0.6%. As a result, […]

Manufacturing sector continues to be on fire; but real construction spending plunges August data started out mixed.  The ISM manufacturing index continued to show strong expansion. Both the overall and new orders components declined slightly m/m, but at 59.5 and 64.9 remained far about the breakeven point between expansion and contractions of 50.0: The simplest […]