Does fivethirtyeight process the numbers too much ?
…approach is correcting raw polls for house effects. The corrected number which goes into the smoother used to make forecasts is a prediction of what a random pollster would…
You searched for: label/spillover effects
Desirable incentive effects of income taxation V
Fifth and last. Not relevant to the USA. Back in the day when US unions weren’t totally feeble, MacDonald and Solow wrote a brilliant paper on collective bargaining and tax…
Robert Waldmann: Debt and Taxation Series
Desirable incentive effects of income taxation I Desirable Incentive Effects of Income Taxation II Desirable Incentive Effects of Income Taxation III Desirable Effects of Income Taxation IV Dissipative Signaling Desirable…
Why hurricane effects and funky seasonal adjustments will make tomorrow’s initial claims report particularly fun
– by New Deal democrat The drought in new economic data continues through today. We’ll make up for it all at once tomorrow with jobless claims, retail sales, and industrial…
CBO: Not extending IRA subsidies . . .
…to have the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) formally chime in: Re: The Effects of Not Extending the Expanded Premium Tax Credits for the Number of Uninsured People and the Growth in…
Producer Prices may show first inflationary effects of tariff wars
– by New Deal democrat I typically do not pay much attention to producer prices. Sometimes they do lead consumer prices, but since the turn of the Millennium more often they…
April job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs: possibly the last month before the effects of Tariff-palooza! are felt
– by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey, which decomposes the employment market into job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, was reported this morning for April. In 2024 the data were…
Trump Effects Showing Up in the Economy
Worthwhile read if you have five minutes. Trump Effect Starts to Show Up in Economy (The Wall Street Journal) Kareem Talking Trump . . . SUMMARY: A chaotic rollout of…
Producer prices for July (apparently) show the first significant negative effects of Tariff-palooza!
– by New Deal democrat Normally I don’t pay too much attention to producer prices, but occasionally they are very important – and today is one of those days. Here’s…
Medicaid and ACA Healthcare Cuts
…the numbers. The two maps below show different criteria. One shows the effects of the reconciliation law. The other shows those effects combined with expiration of the ACA enhanced premium…