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“tariffs depress economic activity” – Guest Commentary by Erica York – Tax Foundation

…economy.  In February, economists Tamar den Besten and Diego R. Känzig published a new “NBER” working paper” on the macro effects of tariffs. They use a narrative approach to identify “exogenous” tariff shocks that were motivated by ideological or political reasons (as opposed…

Answers: Taking IOR to Zero

…have any incentive effects on borrowing and lending — hence real-economy purchases/velocity. Lenders and real-economy borrowers do their thing because they see valuable risk/return opportunities in the real economy. Changing…

Kevin Drum asks the Romers some questions

…you please explain your paper titled “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks”? Here’s my understanding of what the paper says. Basically,…

Division on Dynamic Analysis

…convened by Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation, which showed that the “reflow” effects would be generally in the neighborhood of 5-10%, with only one model showing possible effects of over…

Fiscal Policy: Forty Years of Free Lunches

…Keynesian stimulants to the economy … In proposing the tax cuts in late May of 1962, Kennedy cited the incentive effects, not the income effects that a Keynesian would argue….

…using the most concrete dollar figures available. First, we need to precisely estimate the budgetary effects of the tax cuts. To do so, we can turn to the CBO. They…