…of the risk of unintended consequences. Good 21st century ideas 1) Hawaii hope. The idea is swift sure punishment works better than rare severe punishment. This is not a new…

…especially severe one in the late 1950s that killed millions in the early part of the regime). I would like to put this anniversary into a broader historical perspective, in…

…consistent with a severe slowdown. Even more broadly, although the household report has been very good for the past two months, the aggregate hours worked by all non-managerial personnel has…

…in low income countries, Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer. I think the award has merit, but it is important to keep in mind the severe limitations of the…

…44,000 jobs have been added in the entire goods-producing sector (again, this may in part reflect the GM strike in October): This is consistent with at very least a severe…

…low prices and a severe drought in 2018 has pushed many Australian dairy operations to the brink of collapse. The farmer-owned Fonterra dairy cooperative, serving both Australia and New Zealand…

…2 false positives (1966 and 1985). This is consistent with at very least a severe slowdown. Where there has not been a slowdown is in the (non-leading) services sector, which…

…consistent with at very least a severe slowdown. Now let’s turn to wages. December’s nominal growth of +$.02 per hour, or less than +0.1%, was one of the weakest readings…

…consistent with at very least a severe slowdown. Now let’s turn to wages. December’s nominal growth of +$.02 per hour, or less than +0.1%, was one of the weakest readings…

…not nearly so severe as the nearly -5% decline of 2015-16. Together, industrial production and real retail sales tell us that the production sector remains in recession, while the consumer…