…are still below February’s level, and are still about 0.7% below their 2010 post-recession peak: Of course, even that level was below virtually the entire 1970s peak for real wages:…

…added) In 2012 and 2013, gas prices made lower seasonal peaks, and lower seasonal troughs, than in 2011. They made a lower peak again this past spring. Periodically during that…

…above. The orange line is the effective demand limit function that marks the peaks of the TFUR business cycle (blue line). (TFUR = (capacity utilization * (1 – unemployment rate))….

…$1.7 billion. In 1995, it went to a deficit of $15.8 billion, and in 2014 the goods trade deficit was $53.8 billion, down from 2007’s peak of $74.8 billion. This…

…exceeds its pre-crisis peak by about 2.5% whereas Ireland is still, 8 years later, 8% below its peak. More specifically, Irish employment peaked in Q1 2008 at 2,160,681; in Q3…

…Now, facing an August 2016 deadline in the Missouri law for the truce to take effect,Brownback ordered the Kansas Department of Commerce to disapprove PEAK (Promoting Employment Across Kansas) subsidies…

…limit, but he does not seem to have the effective demand limit nailed down yet. So he presents in a general way the idea that profit rates peak at an…

…build it slowly. Effective demand limit & Peak profit rates When profit rates peak in the aggregate, we have reached the effective demand limit. Capital utilization has been optimized. Think…

…interest rate will probably rise enough before the next business cycle peak that cutting it will be enough. Jared Bernstein thinks very highly of the paper, but is not convinced…

…Auto sales have peaked. Year-over-year change in non-farm employment is trending down. There are more signals that the business cycle is decaying into a contraction. Fischer believes that the Fed…