…“V”-ish fashion: two years down and three years up. Even goods employment ex-manufacturing came back in more delayed fashion, and is at 97% of peak 2007 levels. But manufacturing employment…

…normal, and lower readings show more): During the 2000s expansion: Hires peaked first, from December 2004 through September 2005 Quits peaked next, in September 2005 Layoffs and Discharges peaked next,…

…for housing to be outright recessionary, I would want to see single family housing permits down -10% from peak at minimum. This morning’s data has them down only about -6.5%…

…for housing to be outright recessionary, I would want to see single family housing permits down -10% from peak at minimum. This morning’s data has them down only about -6.5%…

…long view, real wages are still -3.1% below their January 1973 peak, and -0.1% below where they were in February: Finally, here are aggregate real wages. This tells us how…

…unchanged at 79.7%. This remains a declined from the peak at the beginning of this year. Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $.04 from $23.39 to $23.43,…

…decline of real wages to 97.0% of their all time high in January 1973: On a YoY basis, real average wages were up +1.5%, a decline from their recent peak…

…it is much noisier, but helps us pick out the turning points: The recent peak in YoY employment gains followed the recent peak in real retail sales by roughly 6…

…their all time high in January 1973, a new high following revisions to prior months: On a YoY basis, real average wages were up +1.7%, still below their recent peak…

…the Fed shifted to worrying about inflation (as central bankers do) in late 2016. The US is currently believed to be near a business cycle peak and one reason for…