…of an expansion, and at cyclical peaks real income is very much a concurrent indicator of consumer spending. but at bottoms consumer spending is driven more by lower rates, better…

…Trust Funds were projected to peak at $4.3 trillion in 2027 and then descend fairly rapidly to zero in 2037. Under the more pessimistic High Cost Assumption the would peak…

…are cheaper and coal is cheaper. The plants working all the time are coal fired. The natural gas fired plants work only during hours of peak demand. A modest tax…

…all still looks like a model chasing a desired conclusion. Particularly when Low Cost itself sees immigration settling out an an absolute rate lower than the 2006 peak. This really…

…per capita income at its prior peak. After the most severe banking crises around the world in the postwar period, the economy has taken an average of four years to…

…severe, from peak to trough, as the Great Contraction from 1929 to 1933 that FDR would later inherit. The estimated gross national product plunged 24 percent from $91.5 billion in…

…Romer and Bernstein project a peak unemployment rate without the stimulus of about 9%. The 1981-82 recession had a peak unemployment rate of about 10.5%, but there was no apparent…

…peak industrial production has now fallen to 92.0, or roughly at the average trough level for the 10 post WW II recessions of 92.3%. Three recessions were more severe. In…

…42.1% decline. So is this good or bad? The peak post WW II unemployment rate was in 1982 when it peaked at 10.8% and averaged 9.7% for the year. Over…

…has never made any attempt to regain its 1989 peak. Yes, I know there were massive differences in valuations at the peaks, but the S&P 500 valuation at the 2000…