…(red) tends to peak after housing units under construction (dark blue, right scale) does, sometimes by many, many months. It also has only peaked after housing units actually completed (light…

…-0.9 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours, but on the other hand is only -0.2 hours below its 18 month high. Manufacturing jobs declined -46,000. This is…

…of Leading Indicators, rose 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours. This remains down -0.8 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours, but on the other hand is only -0.1…

…are normed to their peak at 100: And as mortgage rates increased from 3% to 7%, sales and permits declined about 20%, +/-5%. This is a serious decline, which has…

…one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, rose 0.2 hours to 40.8 hours, This remains down -0.7 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours,…

…basis from peak, they have declined -3.5% and -6.5%, respectively: Adjusting by the cost of construction materials, which again rose last month, the declines from peak are -8.9% and -10.4%,…

…as of their post-pandemic peaks. I did the same for starts, but used their peak three month average. Starts are down 23.9% from their peak, permits 27.2%, and single family…

…(ages 25 to 54) fell to 80.4 percent, 0.5 pp below last year’s peaks. The July drop for men was 0.5 pp, putting their EPOP 0.7 pp below the peak…

…four week seasonally adjusted average since spring 2022 (blue), together with non-seasonally adjusted initial claims, averaged biweekly (red): On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims always peak in January after…

…peak, are clearly recessionary (note: since FRED for some reason implements a one month delay in updating its graphs, I have subtracted the December values for car and truck sales…