…decelerated and made a peak or trough a month or two before the Case Shiller index (note, for example, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2010, and 2013).  With that in mind, here…

…hit, so I am showing it separately. It too is apparently peaking: New Jersey has still been rising, with a possible peak beginning to form in the past few days:…

…April’s 10.4% YoY growth. Since my rule of thumb as to non-seasonally adjusted data is that a decline of 1/2 of peak YoY change is necessary for a real-time peak,…

…when a metric that can’t be seasonally adjusted declines by more than 1/2 of its YoY peak in the past 12 months, it has probably peaked. One year ago, prices…

…came even close during the BA.2.12.1 or BA.4&5 waves to their peak from original Omicron last winter (or, in the case of deaths, to their peak during Delta). And with…

…almost like clockwork: In the past, within about 6 months after starts peak, units under construction do as well. We’re now 6 months out past the 3 month average peak…

…still about -4% below their pre-pandemic peak.  Professional and business employment increased by only 1,000, over 1,000,000 above its pre-pandemic peak. Full time jobs increased 92,,000 in the household report….

…this year and down -0.6 hours from its February 2022 peak of 40.7 hours. Manufacturing jobs rose by 16,000. Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -100.  Construction jobs…

…pre-pandemic peak. Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments rose 6100, and for the first time ever exceeded their pre-pandemic peak, by almost 30,000. Professional and business…

…year and down -0.8 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours. Manufacturing jobs declined by -35,000 (-2,000 ex-strike). Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -33,000 (including…