…spending. Another is what happens to estimates of the natural rate of unemployment. In theory it shouldn’t depend on productivity growth. The original story by Friedman referred to labor market…

…think of it, it seems more likely that Trump tweeted about the ratio of long term unemployment to total unemployment and not the long term unemployment rate — an appalling…

…NAWRU and the difference between the unemployment rate and the NAWRU (ur_cyc_nawru). If the ewstimated nawru is the rate of unemployment corresponding to non accelerating wage inflation, its coefficient should…

…pause in the decline of the unemployment and underemployment rates. As shown below, in the year from September 2015 through September 2016, the unemployment rate only fell -0.1%, from 5.0%…

…Left’s alternative must consist of. It will not accept the growth of unemployment as something inevitable and will not accept that its goal must be to make this unemployment and…

…in the last few years. Some of it has panned out: based on past expansions,I expected YoY wage growth to bottom consistent with an unemployment rate of about 6%. A…

…claims forecast new lows in the unemployment rate. Here’s what I said: [I]nitial jobless claims tend to lead the unemployment rate by a few months. Here’s the 50 year+ graph:…

…“Medicare for All” unemployment coverage. 2.  The individual mandate penalty that the GOP killed in 2018 remains dead. But it is replaced, in all cases where an individual is not…

…its lowest level in 49 years: And the unemployment rate was the lowest in 50 years: This is great news. But before you break out into a cheer of “Happy…

…scale) vs. the unemployment rate (red, right scale): I don’t think it was a coincidence that the unemployment rate fell to a 50 year low during the four week period…