Oil and SPR at 13 & 19 Year Lows, Total Oil + Product Supply Down
…make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and the consumption of it balance out, essentially a balance sheet fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as…
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SPR and Supplies Low, Total Oil and Products the Same
…the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there must have been an error or omission…
Reply to Krasting’s reply to Coberly’s reply to Krasting
…pocket. BK: Now consider the 4th Q 2009 surplus of only $13.6 b. Compare that with the surplus in 2008 of $52.3 b. A YoY decline of 75%. I believe…
Trade and GDP accounting
…reported growth of real GDP in the 4th Q of last year. The real trade data for December was released this morning. This chart is of the data and the…
One reason earnings might look better… labor share dropped
…hit. (link to chart) Update: My calculations show that that capital income grew $444 billion from 4th quarter 2012 to 4th quarter 2013. While labor income fell by $12 billion….
Forecasting the Presidential election: simply knowing whether the economy is expanding or in recession gives you the correct answer more than 2/3 of the time (Part 1)
…be in expansion or recession in the 3rd or 4th quarter of the election year gives you the correct answer more than 2/3’s of the time. The NBER maintains the…
Another Look at Drug Pricing, Costs, and Why
…period (4th quarter 2016 – 4th quarter 2018). The remaining 23 drugs were excluded from further analysis even though they may have been greater than one times CPI. The ICER…
Sales Income for Drugs have Exceeded Risk Adjusted R & D Costs
…Acquisition Cost (WAC) greater than 7.32% over the two-year period (4th quarter 2016 – 4th quarter 2018). The ICER Table 2.3 depicts 9 of the 77 drugs (Median Total Cost)…
Forecasting the 2020 election: the economic baseline (or, don’t count on a recession)
…only 3 of the 11 cases where there has been a recession in the 3rd or 4th Quarter of the election year has the incumbent party been successful maintaining control…
“Personal income decreased $1,516.6 billion in February”
…PCE for the 3 months of the 4th quarter was represented by 12,999.1 billion in chained 2012 dollars…(note that’s the same figure shown in table 3 of the pdf for the…