by Robert Waldmann (lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) The Empty Quarter, Greenwich and the Mason Dixon Line I recall being surprised to learn that I was born, bred and then living South of the Mason Dixon line. I considered the border between North and South to be the Patomac river (honestly felt I was entering enemy […]
A decelerating Staffing Index suggests that weakening temporary jobs in the monthly employment report is not just noise Every week I report the YoY 4 week rolling average of American Staffing Association’s Index. It’s been decelerating recently, and last week was up only +0.5% YoY. On a single week basis, though, it went negative. Because […]
(There’s a movie at the end!) For decades we have been hearing about the loss of industrial production through out what is called the “Rust Belt”. It’s presented, even as recent as the prior presidential election as a relative regional problem that only began post Reagan. What gets me though is that the reporting and […]
Ruminations On Virginia’s Difficult Situation A week ago, I posted here supporting VA Gov Ralph Northam, comparing him favorably to the late Robert C. Byrd of WV. A day later I joined the call for him to resign after his bizarre press conference that has still left unpleasant unresolved issues such as who put that […]
“I’m not sure I follow the arithmetic here.” “Unless productivity goes up by at least 25% to compensate, everyone will be worse off.” “Dropping hours from 5 days a week to 4 means that the work that would have been done in 5 days now needs to be done in 4, which means each day […]
Texas AG Claims Noncitizens Voted in 2018, Liam Stack, NYT Texas AG Ken Paxton: “Every single instance of illegal voting threatens democracy in our state and deprives individual Texans of their voice.” Texas has called into question 95,000 registered voters who in the past have identified themselves as noncitizen and legal residents of the United […]
The 1912 Bread and Roses Strike Elizabeth Warren made an impressive speech just now in the freezing cold of Lawrence, Massachusetts: Sen. Elizabeth Warren officially launched her 2020 presidential campaign Saturday at a rally in Lawrence, Massachusetts, using the backdrop of Everett Mills — the site of a historic 1912 labor strike led by women and […]
Will INSTEX Replace SWIFT Bank Exchange? Probably not, but reportedly a “White House insider” is afraid it might. Instex is the new exchange created by UK, France, and Germany, to be based i Paris and run by a German banker, to get around US sanctions against Iran. Apparently it will sell Iran humaanitarian goods such […]
February short leading data starts out decent We’ve had two pieces of forward looking data in the last week (in addition to the leading bits in the employment report). The first was the ISM manufacturing index: Contrary to my expectations, the most leading new orders component rebounded sharply, up to 58.2. This is closer to […]
“Just doesn’t add up’” “I’m not sure I follow the arithmetic here.” “It’s all down to the numbers – something the article avoids and so is just pie-in-the-sky.” “That clearly does not add up.” “If you produce X in 30 hours you will produce > X in 40 – unless you are just sitting on […]