This is coming from MEDPAGE TODAY, “Track the U.S. COVID-19 Outbreak in Real Time,” Comments Section (3 comments), March 11, 2020 with regard to  COVID-19 The mechanism of seasonal effect for seasonal respiratory virus spread is believed to be humidity, not temperature. In New York state, which has 220 cases, fomites lose moisture where indoor […]

As of the market close on 11 March 2020 the S&P 500 PE had fallen to 18.2. This makes the market cheap in my valuation model as it has fallen below my fair value band. Moreover, with interest rates still falling to new record lows the fair value band is also rising.  In the chart […]

This is not a prediction. Only an observation. From 1952 to 1996, U.S. nominal net worth of households and non-profits tracked nominal GDP pretty closely. Net worth remained pretty close to 15 times GDP. That consistent relationship ended after 1997. In the third quarter of 2007, net worth was nearly 20 times GDP but by […]

Whatever will I write about on a no-data Monday? I won- WTF????? Yesterday I was wondering what I might write about today, as there is absolutely *no* data being released. And then I woke up and turned on the intertoobs . . . . OK. Deep breaths. For those of you who wonder what the […]

The BSing of the Red Death: and a K.I.S.S. model for the coronavirus pandemic A Reuters/Ipsos poll this past week found that only 2 in 10 Republicans, vs. 4 in 10 Democrats, say the coronavirus poses an imminent threat to the United States. In keeping with that lack of concern, fewer republicans are taking any steps to prepare, […]

My brother lives in Lucca, Italy ( near Florence) and sent the following report. We’re not quite at the “Bring Our Your Dead” stage. Schools & museums are closed, flights are being canceled, but all in all life in Lucca is quiet & normal.  Many shops are closed for their usual breaks this time of […]

February jobs report: a blowout HEADLINES: +273,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 3.5% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.1% to 7.0% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession   I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall have strongly suggested that an employment slowdown is here. The following more leading numbers […]

When I was commenting at Slate’s  Moneybox and Best of the Fray sites at least a decade or so ago, Dahlia Lithwick had taken over Jurisprudence. She always gave a sound and fair analysis of court decisions, the impacts of those decisions, and the resulting politics coming out of them. Fast forward   .  .  […]