Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Two important employment indicators from November: one says continued expansion, the second recession

  – by New Deal democrat This is going to be a sparse week for data, with the exception of tomorrow’s long-delayed Q3 GDP report, and jobless claims on Wednesday. Sadly, so much of the data is still missing or stale that the best source for up-to-date information is in the regional Fed reports, most […]

International Trade and the U.S.

Explaining the impact of International Trade. Does International Trade Hurt the United States? Econofact In my opinion, International Trade does not hurt the United States. It does expand our economic impact. As the article points out when U.S. exports to the rest of the world are declining, U.S. imports of foreign goods tend to decline […]

Why vote?

Ever since I started voting, I’ve voted in either red states or blue states. I’ve never missed an election. But why bother voting, since I’m outnumbered? Well, for one thing, millions of people have fought and died for the right to vote. I honor their memory by exercising my franchise. Beyond that sentimental reason, though, […]

What Can Democrats Do Now?

What Can Democrats Do Now? J.P. McJefferson Thoughts Democrats need to move on and move on fast. What really scares me is whether Democrats, Independents, and any others who care about democracy can, over the next couple of years, preserve the concept of “Free & Fair Elections,” and pack the 2026 campaigns with credible, charismatic […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for December 15-19, 2025

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Update: All of the trends that we have been seeing for the past several months appear to be becoming more entrenched. That includes the re-normalization of the yield curve on the positive side, and weak withholding tax payments and transportation metrics on […]

Review of “Two paths to prosperity”

I just finished reading “Two Paths to Prosperity: Culture and Institutions in Europe and China,” 1000-2000 by Avner Greif, Guido Tabellini, and Joel Mokyr. The book, as suggested by the title, is a study of comparative economic history. My reading of economic history is limited to reading biographies of Marx and Keynes. My reading of […]

The “gold standard” QCEW through Q2 suggests little if any employment growth this year

– by New Deal democrat The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is “the gold standard of US employment measures. It is an actual census of 95%+ of all employers, who must report new employees for purposes like unemployment and disability benefits. Because of this, it is used for the final revisions, a/k/a benchmarks, for monthly […]