Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Federal worker cuts are mostly not gonna happen

I’ve read where Musk and Ramaswami are proposing a 75% cut in the federal workforce. That’s absurd. • National security-related agencies account for roughly 70% of the civilian workforce. The largest employers were the Department of Veterans Affairs, with 487,000 workers, followed by the armed services, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Justice Department. […]

The long leading indicator of corporate profit growth stalled in Q3

If you have been reading New Deal democrat all along, you will remember NDd’s commentary on October 23rd (the link is below) discussing the possible stall of corporate profits. Maybe it is an easy call and maybe not. There are negatives to corporate profits stalling. Read on . . .  – by New Deal democrat […]

Where is it actually cheaper to drive an electric car?

Economist reports on what countries are less costly when driving EVs. If you go to the Economist site, you can find more countries by hovering over each colored circle. And is it always greener? Our ranking shows how costs and emissions vary. OWNERS OF ELECTRIC vehicles (EVs) have a lot to brag about. Their cars are […]

Federal Student Loan Repayment Under the Second Trump Administration

While no plans have been announced by Donald Trump or Linda McMahon, a few existing programs are likely to undergo changes. What Will Federal Student Loan Repayment Look Like Under the Second Trump Administration? – By Steven Chung on November 27, 2024 at 12:16 PM Above the Law With President-Elect Trump returning to the White House in […]

Jobless claims continue to signal moderate expansion

 – by New Deal democrat Let me start to update this week’s data with jobless claims. Initial claims fell another -2,000 to 213,000, the lowest since last May. The four-week moving average declined -1,250 to 217,000, also a six-month low. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.907 million: As with one […]

A Complete Set of Subjective Probabilities, Bayes’ Formula, Overconfidence and Over-reaction to new information

There is an approach to cognitive psychology and modelling beliefs and forecasts which is natural for economists and very misleading. The assumptions are that we have a complete set of subjective probabilities updated with Bayes’ formula, that  for any possible combination of events we have a belief about the probability that they will occur and […]

Sarah Josepha Hale imagined a day of Christian Celebration.

– by Sarah Laskow Atlas Obscura November 23, 2016 By the time she started pitching Thanksgiving to America, Sarah Josepha Hale knew her power. She was edging towards 60, and for a decade she had been the editress (her preferred term) of Godey’s Lady’s Book, one of the most widely read publications in the United States. Women followed […]

Yellville – Tossing a Turkey Out of a Plane

– by Annie Lowrey The Atlantic, November 20, 2018 A Thanksgiving story about the limits of human empathy . . . YELLVILLE, Ark.—It is October in the Ozarks. The grass has dried out and the trees have bronzed and browned. Deer lie glaze-eyed in the back of camouflaged pickup trucks. High-school football helmets crack every […]

The Trump tariffs won’t actually happen

Mexico buys about $300 billion worth of goods from us every year, mostly machinery, oil, autos, food and office equipment. If Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, you can be sure that Mexico will retaliate, at the expense of American jobs. Meanwhile, Mexico will certainly be looking to source these goods from China […]