Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Long leading components of GDP suggest continuing if sluggish expansion through 2025

 – by New Deal democrat As per usual, my focus in reporting on GDP is not the headline number, but the aspects which serve as leading indicators for the economy in the next few quarters. But to get it out of the way, real GDP increased at a 2.3% rate in the last quarter of […]

Resisting Rent Taking for the Better Good

Maybe you have seen Mr. Mom? There was a scene in there where Howard Humphries (President?) is doing a commercial for their product Schooner Tuna. The tuna with a heart. So, Humphries decreases the price during bad economic times. All of us here at Schooner Tuna sympathize with all of you hit so hard by […]

Economically weighted ISM services + manufacturing indexes forecast continued growth

– by New Deal democrat Because that services are about 75% of the economy, even if goods production is contracting, since the turn of the MIllennium that has not necessarily meant a recession is in the offing. The economically weighted average to the ISM services and manufacturing indexes has been much more accurate since then. […]

Hayek on The Use of Knowledge in Society

I recently reread Hayek’s most famous paper, The Use of Knowledge in Society, written in 1945.  I hadn’t read it in many years.   Page for page, TUKS is perhaps the most insightful economics paper ever written.  Every undergraduate economics major should read it.  I am not sure how many other papers written before 1960 […]

Sen. Cassidy accepts RFK Jr’s vapor-clad promises

Sen. Bill Cassidy, MD (R-La.) is a physician. I’m sure he’s pretty smart, but as I’m frequently caused to observe, the traits of high intelligence are unlinked. Dr. Cassidy is exercising poor medical judgement by supporting RFK Jr.’s nomination for Secretary of HHS, although he may be showing good political judgement. “Sen. Bill Cassidy, MD […]

In December, the theme for new homes was “steady as she goes”

In December, the theme for new homes was “steady as she goes” in sales, price, and inventory trends  – by New Deal democrat To reiterate my theme from the past few months, I’ve been looking at new and existing home sales more in tandem, with a rebalancing of the market in mind. For that to […]

“We’ll Own It”

It was mid-January 2025 Angry Bear had mentioned in a commentary about Jared Kushner thoughts on The Gaza. The brief comment was in “Undercounting The Gaza Death Toll,” Angry Bear. Enough is enough. They have extracted their pound of flesh. Maybe it is the beach front property Jared Kushner was reported to have talked about […]

Trump is blowing up American science

The National Science Foundation is one of the nation’s premier agencies to advance non-biomedical research (the NIH has the biomedical research portfolio). Full disclosure: I was principle investigator on three NSF grants in my career and served on six NSF review panels that made grant funding recommendations. Now, the Trump administration wants to tear that […]