Yesterday a paper came out by John Williams and Thomas Laubach called, Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux. They presented their model to determine the natural real rate of interest. In short, their model gives a steadily low natural real rate that would justify keeping nominal interest rates low. Paul Krugman jumped on board […]
Russ Choma wrote an excellent article on Carly Fiorina’s habit of making precise claims which turn out to be false. I had one comment Excellent article, but you missed one. “Ronald Reagan got rid of the the 55 mph national speed limit, he deregulated trucking and the airlines, that’s the last time it happened.” is […]
I regularly see people comment about the decline in the importance of industrial production but I never see any data on how much it has declined. Finally, I saw a libertarian blogger talk about as a point in his argument but he also revealed that he had not idea what had happened to industrial […]
by New Deal democrat (Bonddad blog) The decline in prime age labor participation: the smoking gun (Part 1of 2) I recently wrote about the compelling evidence that the biggest reason for the decline in the prime working age labor participation rate was the increase in the number of second-earner spouses who decided to stay […]
“Her campaign has been about how to make a difference in American families’ lives – a cause she’s fought for her entire life,” said [Clinton campaign] spokeswoman, Christina Reynolds. “It’s a shame Senator Sanders’s campaign has decided to make the campaign about political attacks. Voters want to hear about how their candidate will fight for […]
This is a rare event. Both Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman argue that a recent argument by Kevin Warsh and Michael Spence makes no theoretical sense. I disagree. I am sure Warsh and Spence are wrong, but I can make a simple theoretical argument for their conclusion. The argument is that QE causes low non […]
The Fisher Effect would say that steady and low nominal interests would bring down inflation as the real interest rises to its natural level at full employment. OK… nominal interest rates are steady and low and inflation is low. So is it really the Fisher Effect that is bringing down inflation? Just yesterday I posted […]
BY MARK JAMISON (A North Carolina Retired Postmaster). First posted at Save The Post Office The United Parcel Service is very concerned that you might be paying too much for a postage stamp. If you’re wondering why UPS would be worried about something like that, it has to do with the way postal rates are […]
Link to graph The graph shows that inflation expectations are still trending lower. This trend is consistent with the Neo-fisherian view that over time, as the Fed rate stays stuck at a low rate, the expected inflation will trend lower as the real rate seeks to rise to its natural level. We have seen in […]