-by New Deal democrat Forecasting the 2016 election economy: in which I respond to Nate Silver As you all know, I have been writing a series about “Forecasting the 2016 election economy.” In general, good economic conditions at election time usually mean the return of the incumbent party to the White House, while a recession […]
One who makes comments on Angry Bear, William Ryan, said… “Besides I thought we have been in a slump since 2008 haven’t we?( I guess it depends on what sector of the economy we are talking about)” What sector has been in a slump? Middle and low incomes. Wages have been barely rising. Under-employment is […]
From what I read, nobody has pointed out the drop in Nonfarm Business Sector: Hours of All Persons in the 3rd quarter. (seasonally adjusted) The index of hours decreased from 110.66 to 110.53. This is actually noteworthy… Nonfarm Business Sector: Hours of All Persons since 1967. (link to graph) You can see that hours increase […]
– by New Deal democrat Forecasting the 2016 election economy, first forecast: the long leading indicators Last week I showed that, going back 160 years, roughly 3/4 of all US Presidential election results correlated positively with whether or not at the time of the election campaign, the US was in a recession […]
by New Deal democrat Forecasting the Presidential election: simply knowing whether the economy is expanding or in recession gives you the correct answer more than 2/3 of the time If you want a quick and dirty guide to whether an incumbent political party will retain control of the White House in a Presidential election, simply […]
For Profit Goes on Probation The University of Phoenix has been placed on probation by the Department of Defense preventing the university from recruiting on military bases. The probation comes after the Federal Trade Commission and the California Attorney General’s investigation into the University of Phoenix recruiting methods, its high costs, and the resulting poor […]
The Fed rate… What is going on with the Fed rate? The Fed say they would like to raise it in December. Others say they should wait. Using an Effective Demand Version of the IS-LM curve In a normal IS-LM model, the interest rate is on the y-axis and output on the x-axis. The following […]
(Dan here….perhaps food for thought on a Sunday) Scott Baker is a professor at the Henry George School, the State Coordinator of the NY Chapter of The Public Banking Institute, and the author is America Is Not Broke! Are You a Liberal or a Conservative? Are You Sure? Quick, without looking at the answers – or at […]
I’ve pointed out multiple times that despite Europe’s big, supposedly growth-strangling governments, Europe and the U.S. have grown at the same rate over the last 45 years. Here’s the latest data from the OECD, through 2014 (click for larger): And here’s the spreadsheet. Have your way with it. More discussion and explanation in a previous […]