Since the presidential election there have been claims made that the Democratic Party is not interested in change.  People have noted how the pre-election rhetoric of both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did not match their post election actions.  (I’ve pointed out specific examples in the past). I just heard the following article on Democracy […]

(Dan here….lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) A New Pareto Liberal Paradox (reposted from 2004) One of the core principles of Liberalism is that there must be equality before the law. The law must not discriminate. In practice, this principle is often restricted to citizens and people are citizens only if they are born in the […]

Demographics, housing, and the economy Way back during the Great Recession, I first noted that demographics were about to become a tailwind for the housing market. The argument, in its simplest terms, is that the median age of first time home buyers is about 30, and the nadir of the “baby bust” was 1973-76. That […]

The consumer edges closer to the precipice In addition to my “long leading/short leading” model adapted from the work of Profs. Geoffrey Moore and Edward Leamer, and the “high frequency” weekly variation on the same, I also have several “alternate” recession forecasting models. The most noteworthy model is really a consumer nowcast. It turns on consumers […]

Whither Social Capital? This past Friday there was yet another retirement conference, this time honoring “Mr. Social Capital,” Robert S. Putnam, who is retiring from Harvard’s Kennedy School at age 77.  I was not invited, but I know some people who attended, including my sister and brother-in-law, the latter speaking at the dinner as family, […]

Higher wage growth for job switchers: more evidence of a taboo against raising wages? Yesterday the Atlanta Fed published a note touting the wage growth for those who quit their jobs and transfer to a different line of work, writing that: Although wages haven’t been rising faster for the median individual, they have been for those […]

(Dan here…better late than not!) by New Deal democrat A better name for The Kids Today: iGeneration You know the drill. It’s Sunday so I get to ruminate about all stuff that isn’t dry economics. The oldest member of the Millennial generation is 38. Not only do I not think that The Kids Today would […]

Paul Krugman demonstrates just how simple models can and should be. He presented a trade model on the New York Times opinion pages. He also apologised for extreme wonkishness, but I don’t think he had to. His aim is to find an example in which Trump’s tariffs on steel cause lower wages (also for steel […]