In its report on “The long-term decline in prime-age male labor force participation,” President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers writes: Conventional economic theory posits that more ‘flexible’ labor markets—where it is easier to hire and fire workers—facilitate matches between employers and individuals who want to work. Yet despite having among the most flexible labor markets […]
Olivier Blanchard is criticizing the Aggregate Supply-Aggregate Demand model… “Turning to the supply side, the contraption known as the aggregate demand–aggregate supply model should be eliminated.” (link) Let me show you something good… I am the only one in the world using this model of Effective Demand with Aggregate Supply… What you are looking at […]
With the temperature reaching 120 degrees here today in Phoenix (almost a record), allow me to have a little fun with my theoretical model of Effective Demand. There are two equations in my effective demand research that will be integrated in this post. First the Effective Demand equation… Effective demand limit upon real GDP = […]
by Mike Kimel Who Will Be the Next President? We don’t know much about Panama before the Spanish arrived other than that it fit the usual pattern you see just about everywhere – there were periods of bloody violence (wars, genocides) alternating with periods of some sort of coexistence. After the Spanish arrived, there was […]
The soul-searching at the Fed is beginning. I have written many times for over a year that the Fed will have a period when they start soul-searching. They will realize that the business cycle got away from them and they will not be able to normalize rates. They just got too far behind the curve. […]
On January 6th, I made some predictions for 2016. (link to post). Let’s look at some of them. #1. I saw a higher probability than Tim Duy for a recession. He did not predict one. We do not have a recession yet. I wrote, “It is possible that the economy could stabilize by the end […]
Looks like the Fed is finally understanding that they are behind the curve and not able to catch up to the curve without triggering an economic contraction. Now we will see how long the business cycle can hold on. I still see an economic contraction starting by 2nd quarter 2017. Still a 70% chance by […]
by Dale Coberly SOCIAL SECURITY, OBAMA, and the CRFB Obama once offered to cut Social Security as part of a Grand Bargain with the Republicans. Now he says he thinks Social Security ought to be expanded. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) answers him with their usual list of reasons why Social Security […]
I think this post by Dylan Matthews is brilliant and a must read. He says we should focus less on equality of opportunity and more on average outcomes and equality of outcomes. When you say Dylan he thinks you’re talking about Dylan Thomas (whoever he was), man he ain’t got no respect for posts on […]
Companies that purchase debt cheaply then collect it aggressively are shockingly easy to start. We can prove it! (Via Barry Ritholtz) (Via HBO)