February jobs report: the first sign of the economic slowdown spreading to jobs? HEADLINES: +20,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate -0.2% from 4.0% to 3.8% U6 underemployment rate -0.8% from 8.1% to 7.3% (NEW 20 YEAR LOW) Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in […]
This Friday, watch out for an outright decline in temporary employment Almost a month ago I flagged the decelerating staffing index, and showed how it corresponded with the leading sector of temporary jobs in the monthly jobs report: the Staffing Index isn’t seasonally adjusted, [so] you really have to compare each on a YoY basis. And […]
Two more leading sectors to watch for in tomorrow’s jobs report Yesterday I updated my look at temporary jobs, a known leading indicator for jobs overall. Today I want to look at two more leading sectors: manufacturing and construction. Unlike temporary jobs, I’m not looking for a possible decline. Rather, I am looking for a […]
Residential construction declines in December, but looks to be bottoming Residential construction spending lags sales, permits, and starts. But it still leads the economy overall, and it is a much smoother data series, with little noise. It is almost all signal, and so it is an important confirmation of the more leading data. In December, […]
(Dan here…lifted from Bondadd blog) by New Deal democrat Climate change is the detonation of the Population Bomb You know the drill … it’s Sunday so I speak my mind on things non-economic….. Way back in the days of the dinosaurs when I was a young teen, I concluded that there were really only two […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for February 25 – March 1 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Last year the most significant developments were in the long leading indicators. Now that is translating into the short leading indicators. As always, clicking and reading not only should be educational for […]
Visa Restrictions And Intellectual Degradation I am in New York attending the Eastern Economic Association meetings. I was in an agent-based modeling session in which two partticipants participated by internet because they were both refused visaas to enter the US. One was from Turkey, which I think is under strict review by the current administration. […]
Don’t blame me. Blame Noah Smith who asked me to write more about MMT. I don’t know much about MMT, but I am going to write about it anyway. First, there seems to be an extremely important disagreement between MMTers. There are definitely some that argue that MMT implies the US Federal Government can (and […]
December housing permits and starts mixed, support slowdown scenario This morning we finally got December housing permits and starts. Remember that starts are more volatile than permits, and single family permits are the least volatile of all. Here’s what the overall data looks like: While starts and completions laid an egg, permits actually went up […]
Paul Krugman has some tweets harshly criticizing this article by Stephanie Kelton. His claim appears to be that, as a Modern Monetary Theorists, she asserts that there are two schools of macroeconomics MMT and “the mainstream” which includes Paul Krugman. I am kicking myself for deciding to read the article to find if it is […]