USMCA, the International Trade Commission, and Kevin Hassett Tracey Samuelson of Market Place writes: USMCA would slightly boost U.S. economy, says ITC report – On Thursday, the International Trade Commission released its assessment of the projected economic impact of USMCA, President Trump’s proposed replacement for NAFTA. The report shows the new deal is projected to boost […]
by New Deal democrat Sales rebound from government shutdown-induced “mini-recession;” March housing lays an egg While March retail sales rose strongly, total business sales for February – also released yesterday – which includes manufacturers’ and wholesalers’ sales in addition to retail sales, continued to languish. This adds to the evidence that there was a “mini-recession” […]
March real retail sales very strong, but no “all clear” yet This morning’s retail sales report for March was very strong on both a nominal basis, up +1.6%, and also on a real, inflation-adjusted basis, up +1.2%. At the same time, it is still ever so slightly below its peak of five months ago, and […]
Childrens’ Day And The UN Convention On The Rights Of Children Associated with the UN Convention on the Rights of Children is a Universal Childrens’ Day. It is November 20, the date that in 1959 the UN adopted the first version of the Convention, which had 10 articles. It is celebrated in many nations, but […]
by Joseph Joyce Searching for Stimulus The global economy seems headed for a slowdown. The IMF now expects global growth this year of 3.3%, a drop of 0.2 of a percentage point from its previous forecast. Growth in the advanced economies is projected to be particularly feeble, with expected U.S. economic growth of 2.2%, growth of […]
YoY Industrial production and structural changes to the US economy since 1980 No big economic releases today, so let me follow up further with a few long-term comments on industrial production. This series goes back 100 years to the beginning of 1919. Since that time it has turned negative YoY 25 times: Of those 25 […]
Industrial production continues to decelerate Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. In dating the onset and end of recessions, in practice the NBER relies upon industrial production more than any other measure. March 2019 production continued a string of recent disappointments, with overall production declining -0.1%, and manufacturing production unchanged. For the first […]
In this post I will use revealed preference and assume people are rational. Sorry. I’m an economist and I can’t entirely resist. I will argue that our joy and suffering is bounded, that we can’t be infinitely happy or infinitely miserable. The first argument is standard, the second is something Peter Mollgaard thought of the […]
by New Deal democrat The three best arguments against an economic slowdown I still think I’m right that there will be a worsening economic slowdown that shows up by about summertime and continues towards the end of the year.But there is one long leading indicator and two important short leading indicators that are going the […]