Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Three reasons for the decline in Biden’s (and Democrats’) popularity

Three reasons for the decline in Biden’s (and Democrats’) popularity Dan Guild follows presidential approval closely and uses it to model election outcomes, including State level as well as Congressional and Senate races. He’s been very consistent, and very good. For the past several months, his hair has been on fire about a real decline […]

Well, Its About to Become Worse – Update

Economist and Farmer Michael Smith Introduction Well, Its About to Become Worse as Urea prices jumped to a record strong demand creating supply shortages. Food prices to increase . . . And the Details I was recently sitting on a conference call with a fertilizer analyst and a bunch of monocrop growers, generally feeling out […]

September Income and Outlays, Durable Goods and New Home Sales

Commenter and Blogger, RJS MarketWatch 666 3rd quarter GDP, September’s income and outlays, durable goods, & new home sales The key economic reports that were released this week were the 1st estimate of 3rd quarter GDP and the September report on Personal Income and Spending, both from the Bureau of Economic Analysis ….the week also saw the release […]

September Durable Goods: New Orders Down 0.4%, Shipments Up 0.4%, Inventories Up 0.9%

Commenter and Blogger RJS at Marketwatch 666; “September Durable Goods: New Orders Down 0.4%, Shipments Up 0.4%, Inventories Up 0.9%“ September Advanced Report Durable Goods Manufacturer Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, US Census The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for September (pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the […]

Consumers’ “cushion” of pandemic assistance savings is now exhausted

September personal income and spending: positive, but consumers’ “cushion” of pandemic assistance savings is now exhausted Real personal income and spending held up well throughout the pandemic, due to a vigorous government response. This morning these were reported for the first month after the expiration of the last such assistance. In nominal terms, personal income declined […]

Gasoline at 47 month low & Distillate at 18 month low

Commenter and Blogger RJS, Focus on Fracking, The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending October 22nd indicated that after a modest increase in our oil imports and a modest decrease in our oil exports, we had surplus oil to add to our stored commercial […]

(Hence the correctness of the theory of surplus population and surplus capital…)

(Hence the correctness of the theory of surplus population and surplus capital…) Marx mentioned, “the theory of surplus population and surplus capital,” parenthetically, in the Grundrisse and “surplus population and surplus capital” in his 1862-63 draft of Capital. Although it isn’t certain what theory exactly he was referring to, the phrase reappears, in reverse order, in chapter 15, […]

“Lump” and “labor” are two words…

“Lump” and “labor” are two words… From: Tom Walker Sent: October 27, 2021 3:49 PM To: scott.a.wolla@ Subject: Lump of labor fallacy Dear Scott, I just came across your article, “Examining the Lump of Labor Fallacy Using a Simple Economic Model,” from November of last year on the St. Louis Fed website. I have done quite […]

September 2021 Income and Outlays Report

September Personal Income Fell 1.0%, Spending Rose 0.6%, PCE Price Index Up 0.3%; Savings Rate Lowest Since December 2019, Commenter and Blogger RJS, MarketWatch 666 Friday’s release of the September Income and Outlays report was concurrent with the GDP release on Thursday, and all the PCE data in the 3rd quarter GDP report we just covered actually […]