January jobs report: annual revisions clear up some big discrepancies, but monthly numbers are close to pre-recessionary – by New Deal democrat My theme for the past several years as to employment has been “deceleration,” as in a gradual cooldown from white hot to red hot to hot to warm. But at some point past […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our typically weekly look at jobless claims. I do this because there are a very good and timely short leading indicator for the labor market. Initial claims rose 11,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average rose 4,000 to 216,750. With the typical one week delay, continued claims […]
When overwhelming becomes an understatement. When the diversion to conceal a coup could bring down the United States of America. Except for us, the world has come to understand that the United States of Yore no longer exists. That we are now simply Trump and who in the hell would be dumb enough to trust […]
– by New Deal democrat As per usual, my focus in reporting on GDP is not the headline number, but the aspects which serve as leading indicators for the economy in the next few quarters. But to get it out of the way, real GDP increased at a 2.3% rate in the last quarter of […]
Maybe you have seen Mr. Mom? There was a scene in there where Howard Humphries (President?) is doing a commercial for their product Schooner Tuna. The tuna with a heart. So, Humphries decreases the price during bad economic times. All of us here at Schooner Tuna sympathize with all of you hit so hard by […]
– by New Deal democrat Because that services are about 75% of the economy, even if goods production is contracting, since the turn of the MIllennium that has not necessarily meant a recession is in the offing. The economically weighted average to the ISM services and manufacturing indexes has been much more accurate since then. […]
I recently reread Hayek’s most famous paper, The Use of Knowledge in Society, written in 1945. I hadn’t read it in many years. Page for page, TUKS is perhaps the most insightful economics paper ever written. Every undergraduate economics major should read it. I am not sure how many other papers written before 1960 […]
In December, the theme for new homes was “steady as she goes” in sales, price, and inventory trends – by New Deal democrat To reiterate my theme from the past few months, I’ve been looking at new and existing home sales more in tandem, with a rebalancing of the market in mind. For that to […]
JOLTS report for December shows mild improvement in most metrics, anticipates stabilization in wage increases – by New Deal democrat The monthly JOLTS reports give us a more granular look at the employment sector, but are delayed by one month vs. the jobs report. Like the jobs reports, most JOLTS series have shown deceleration for […]
Until 2021, I didn’t pay much attention to the housing market. At that point, we’d lived in the same house for 34 years. There was no Zillow when we bought that house, and we bought directly from the owner, without an agent. We ended up using an agent to buy our house in Rhode Island. […]