Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Canadian economic growth is about two percentage points higher under Liberal governments

by Mike Kimel Canadian economic growth is about two percentage points higher under Liberal governmentsCross posted at the Presimetrics blog. Frances Woolley has a piece in Worthwhile Canadian Initiatives that begins like this: Canadian economic growth is about two percentage points higher under Liberal governments. At least, that’s what my colleagues Stephen Ferris and Marcel […]

Are Republicans or Democrats Better for the Economy?

Barry Ritholz’s The Big Picture carries a link to Presimetrics in the Reads to start your week section of his blog and Mike has been asked by Barry to post a chapter in the book section. Dan says: Mike’s book is one that people need to study and not skim to reinforce a dearly held […]

A Few Graphs Describing the Reagan Presidency

by Mike Kimel A Few Graphs Describing the Reagan PresidencyCross posted at the Presimetrics blog. On February 6, 2011, Ronald Reagan would have been turned 100 years had he been alive. In this post I’d like to share a few graphs from Presimetrics (the book I wrote with Michael Kanell, with graphs and illustrations by […]

Tax Rates v. Real GDP Growth Rates, a Scatter Plot

by Mike Kimel Tax Rates v. Real GDP Growth Rates, a Scatter PlotCross posted at the Presimetrics blog. This post was submitted by Kaleberg. In this post, I will look at the relationship between top marginal income tax rates and real GDP growth using a scatter plot. I am inordinately fond of scatter plots. The […]

How Tax Rates Affect Investment and Consumption – A Look at the Data

by Mike Kimel How Tax Rates Affect Investment and Consumption – A Look at the DataCross posted at the Presimetrics blog This post looks at how changes in the top marginal tax rates affect peoples’ decisions on how much to consume and invest. Ask a libertarian or conservative economist and the answer is obvious – […]

The Data Shows that State "Beggar Thy Neighbor" Policies Don’t Work.

by Mike Kimel The Data Shows that State “Beggar Thy Neighbor” Policies Don’t Work.Cross posted at the Presimetrics blog. Many states seem to believe a “beggar thy neighbor” approach to taxes works best. That is, the state with the lowest taxes will “steal” business from other states and produce the fastest economic growth. A lot […]

The Tax Rate that Maximizes Economic Growth, Part 3

by Mike Kimel The Tax Rate that Maximizes Economic Growth, Part 3… With Gov’t Spending, Money Supply and DemographicsCross posted at the Presimetrics blog. Today I will build a model that explains over three quarters of the annual movement in real GDP between 1929 and the present. The model depends on marginal tax rates, government […]

The Tax Rate that Maximizes Economic Growth, Part 2… With Tax Burdens Too

by Mike Kimel The Tax Rate that Maximizes Economic Growth, Part 2… With Tax Burdens Too!Cross posted at the Presimetrics blog. This post continues my look at the relationship between taxes and growth (what I modestly called the “Kimel curve”), which I will continue expanding on over a series of posts. Today I want to […]

Top Marginal Income Tax Rates & Real Economic Growth, a Bar Chart

by Mike Kimel Top Marginal Income Tax Rates & Real Economic Growth, a Bar ChartCross posted at the Presimetrics blog. The chart below shows tax rates on one axis and the growth rates in real GDP that accompanied those tax rates on the other: I broke the tax ranges into 5 percentage point increments centered […]