Robert Waldmann Republican candidate for Senator from Kentucky Rand Paul said“In 1923, when they destroyed the currency, they elected Hitler. “ He’s off by a decade. Hitler was elected in 1933 not 1923. This is not just a slip or a typo. The German hyper-inflation ended in 1923. At the time Hitler was in jail […]

Robert Waldmann Something odd seems to be happening in US public opinion. Pollsters are shifting from polls of registered voters to polls of likely voters. Given demographics and the enthusiasm gap, I expected the Republican lead in the House generic ballot to increase. Until recently, that seemed to be happening right on schedule. Since then […]

Robert Waldmann In the New York Times Amy Harmon has a long and fascinating article on the ethics of medical experiments on humans. She considers the argument that it is unethical to have a control group which doesn’t get the wonderful new experimental treatment. I just note that the ethical rule imposed by the FDA […]

Robert Waldmann I am generally reluctant to make predictions. However, I am willing to predict that the cost of TARP will be less than forecast by the CBO. I should point out that forecasts of the cost have declined. The reason is that the CBO values TARP assets at “fair market value” which means the […]

Robert Waldmann Worthwhile Canadian point. Nick Rowe looks at Catherine Rampell’s graph, which everyone has been talking about, and notes the dog that didn’t bark. Very few small businessmen are complaining about the quality of labor. This basically proves that the argument that the incerase in unemployment is due to missmatch is wrong. If the […]

Robert Waldmann Matthew Yglesias has a post on poverty which is, shall we say, very different from my post on severe poverty below. In particular he wrote We then had a giant reduction in poverty among this group [female-headed households without husbands] in the 1990s which was a combination of strong economic performance, “welfare reform,” […]

Robert Waldmann The Census Bureau has released estimates of poverty in 2009. Coverage focused on the headline poverty rate which is horrible enough. Much worse, 6.3% of people in the USA suffered severe poverty, that is lived in households with income less than half the poverty line. This is the highest severe poverty rate on […]

Robert Waldmann Matty Yglesias has an amazing catch. He says that competitive devaluations achieved via unsterilized interventions would be a good thing, becuase they would cause inflation. He notes that someone disagrees. The Economist’s Buttonwood “The result is like a game of deflationary pass the parcel…” Of course, Mr or Ms Buttonwood should have written […]

Robert Waldmann This whole post is after the jump as my accounting is not ready for prime time. Scott Sumner thinks he is the first to note that the cost to the US government of bailing out the big banks is more likely to be a profit than a cost. Clearly he doesn’t read angry […]

Robert Waldmann It appears that far right candidate Christine O’Donnell just beat sure thing in the general election hopefulless Mike Castle in the Delaware Republican senatorial primary ! It is widely believed that this is worth almost a full expected seat for the Democrats. It means a possible narrative post election day might be that […]