House Generic Ballot
Something odd seems to be happening in US public opinion. Pollsters are shifting from polls of registered voters to polls of likely voters. Given demographics and the enthusiasm gap, I expected the Republican lead in the House generic ballot to increase. Until recently, that seemed to be happening right on schedule.
Since then there have been several polls showing a surprising close race. If I toss Rasmussen polls out (because I don’t like their results but at least I admit it) and set sensitivity to high so new polls count more I get a pollster smoothed average showing a the Democrats ahead ! * This is mostly determined by ten polls in September six of which are polls of likely voters and five of which are polls of registered voters.
I’m pretty sure I’m over interpreting data and seeing what I want to see. I guess it’s conceivable that recent Tea Party success in primaries have scared voters.
*this is a link to a graph which will be updated. For some reason, when I try to dowload the graph I get the smoothed average including Rasmussen.
Robert, at this point I have thrown out most polling results and am tallying the actual votes. Millions more republicans turning out at the primaries is a seriously telling story.
IIRC the 2008 elections were correctly predicted by Rasmussen. He was number 2 or 3 in the overall poll rankings.
Primary votes have to do with how close the primaries are. Yes Rasmussen had an excellent record in 2008 (not so outstanding in 2006 (this is all from Nate Silver)). But back then there wasn’t such a large Rasmussen anomaly. I admit I drop Rasmussen, because I don’t like the numbers.
CoRev–The Democrats’ primaries had few serious internal opponents. But the Republicans found the TP contingent successful in several significant races, which simulated participation. However, once the D candidates are picked, the situation changes. I don’t think the results so far tell us much about what will happen later. The D’s will lose seats because of the midterm effect. But, it might not be quite as successful a run as they think. We have to wait and see. NancyO
“But, it might not be quite as successful a run as they think. We have to wait and see.” NancyO
This is funny!
Robert, Nate silver? I discount most of the NYT’s writers. Gallup and the others using registered voters instead of those likely to vote in an election based upon voter enthusiam is either biased or corrupt.
Rassmussen, land line phone poll? Think about it.
Rasmussen’s polls are land lines and completely automated. There are some pollsters who think that the automation hurts.