Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Liars Bond Ratings

Robert Waldmann is reading the article everyone is reading by Michael Lewis on what went wrong. My jaw just dropped. Long long ago, I wondered how bond rating agencies could be so powerful without being corrupted. For months I have wondered how they could get ratings so wrong (and assumed it wasn’t corruption). I’d guessed […]

I’m surprised that Paul Krugman is surprised

By Robert Waldmann Paul Krugman writes Max Baucus — Max Baucus! — is leading the charge on a health care plan that, at least at first read, is more like Hillary Clinton’s than Barack Obama’s; that is, it looks like an attempt at full universality. (The word I hear, by the way, is that Obama’s […]

Shopping for Regulators

by Robert WaldmannJeff Girth asks “Was AIG Watchdog Not Up To The Job?” Short answer — no.Slightly longer answer — that depends, do you think their job was to regulate or to make sure that no one else regulated ? They seemed to think it was the second and managed. In 1999, Congress passed legislation […]

Felix Salmon explains it all (or at least a few tens of trillions) to me

Robert Waldmann asked Felix Salmon a question in a comment at Market Movers. He just responded by AIM (hey does that mean I’m on Felix Salmon’s AIM friends list ? sure does and all I had to do was download and install AIM). felixsalmon (8:31:29 PM): But I’m interested in a comment you left on […]

Inflation and interest groups in the Carter Years

Robert Waldmann Matthew Yglesias is very smart, but he is not omniscient. In particular he doesn’t remember things that happened before he was born and it appears that he has fallen for some Republican propaganda. He writes In the late 1970s, it just so happened to be the case that the structure of Great Society […]

CDS zero net supply

Robert Waldmann notes that some have argued that Credit Default Swap demonization is silly because they are in zero net supply so they can’t bring down the financial system (no names or links I will be rude below). This argument is crazy. If half the financial firms end up bankrupt and the other half make […]

Kevin Drum makes me blow a gasket

Robert Waldmann can’t help but argue at very great length that one sentence by Kevin Drum is totally utterly completely wrong. “The public face of his economic policy, after all, was almost entirely based on tax cuts, a distinctly conservative notion.” Andrew Sable makes a much better counterargument than mine here. Mr Drum has fallen […]

Exit Pollster Hell

Robert Waldmann update: OK after getting burned in 200 and 2004 (to paraphrase our President:fool me once shame on you fool me uh fool … you can fool me twice) only a fool would believe in exit polls tonight (and note the obvious below). But I just can’t help myself. Looks like the exit pollers […]

WaPo on AIG

Robert Waldmann read Carol Leonnig’s article which quotes many people arguing that the feds should have let AIG file for chapter 11. The point of the complainers is simple, the takeover has been very (realtively) good for counterparties but not so good for the treasury or, it is alleged, AIG shareholders. I don’t see how […]

Behavioral Economics and Conservatism

David Brooks has noticed the increasing popularity of behavioral economics. He argues that it would be a mistake to allow the recognition that people aren’t perfectly rational to convince us that policy makers should intervene more in the economy, since they aren’t rational either. My reaction is that, of course, the level of sophistication required […]