Industrial production cools a bit; retail sales continue strong Both industrial production and retail sales for July were reported this morning. Let’s take a look at both. First, industrial production increased m/m to another all time high (gray in the graph below), as did manufacturing (red): At the same time, if you zoom in on […]
My extended take on housing permits and starts at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My long-form take on housing sales, updated with yesterday morning’s housing permits and starts report, is up at Seeking Alpha. Like my Weekly Indicators posts, I make a penny or two when you decide to read. So decide to read! Also […]
Gimme Shelter: the rental affordability crisis has worsened Four years ago HUD warned of “the worst rental affordability crisis ever,” citing statistics that About half of renters spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent, up from 18 percent a decade ago, according to newly released research by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Twenty-seven percent […]
Four measures of wages all show renewed stagnation This is something I haven’t looked at in awhile. Since 2013, I have documented the stagnation vs. growth in average and median wages, for example here and here. I last did this in 2017. So let’s take an updated look. We have a variety of economic data series to track both […]
Real wages decline YoY, while real aggregate payrolls grow With the consumer price report this morning, let’s conclude this weeklong focus on jobs and wages by updating real average and aggregate wages. Through July 2018, consumer prices are up 2.9% YoY, while wages for non-managerial workers are up 2.7%. Thus real wages have actually declined […]
June 2018 JOLTS report evidence of both excellent jobs market and taboo against raising wages Yesterday’s JOLTS report remained excellent, suffering only in comparison to last month: Hires were just below their all-time high of one month ago Quits were just below their all-time high of one month ago Total separations made a new 17-year […]
How close are we to “full employment”? As I pointed out Friday, there was a lot of good news underneath the headline jobs gain — primarily in labor force participation and underemployment. So, how close are we to “full employment,” based on the last few expansions? Let’s start with the simple, straightforward unemployment rate of […]
July jobs report: booming jobs market, and a surge in participation continues to depress wage growth HEADLINES: +157,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% from 4.0% to 3.9% U6 underemployment rate down -0.3% from 7.8% to 7.5% (new expansion low) Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment: Wages and […]
Mortgage rates probably have to top 5% to tip housing into a recession-leading downturn I’ve pointed out many times that, generally speaking, mortgage rates lead home sales. It’s not the only thing — demographics certainly plays an important role — but over the long term interest rates have been very important. I have run the […]
The President of the United States is a Russian asset That the President of the United States is a Russian asset needs to be openly acknowledged. He may be a naive, negligent or unwitting asset, a coerced asset, or a willing and enthusiastic asset, or some combination thereof, but at this point there is no […]