Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Blanchard & Posen: Inflation tied to Corporations Trying to Maintain Profit Margins

I have posted this model of core inflation before. Core inflation on y-axis. Corporate-after-tax profit rate minus nominal rates on x-axis. The model implies that inflation depends upon the difference between an aggregate corporate profit rate and nominal rates. The more nominal rates cut into corporate profit rates, the more corporations would choose to raise […]

Monthly Movements of Core Inflation

Here is a graph from FRED showing monthly percentage movements of core inflation. (link to data) There used to be ranges that core inflation moved within. The monthly change either hit the maximum of that range or the minimum with some breakout movements in between. Monthly movements made sense by looking at 12-month moving averages. […]

Labor Supply Limit holding

I have posted this graph before. Here is updated data. The graph plots labor share (left) against the unemployment rate (bottom) since 1948 to 2ndQ 2016. (data at FRED) The data points suggest a labor supply limit shown by the down-sloping red line.  As labor share drops, unemployment tends to bottom out at higher levels. […]

Why would anyone still talk about a Phillip’s Curve?

Which of these models would you trust to evaluate inflation? (quarterly data since 1957) Phillip’s curve… core inflation plotted against unemployment. (link) My model plotting core inflation against corporate profit rates minus a mix of short & long-term nominal rates… (link) Who in their right mind would still talk about the Phillip’s curve after seeing […]

Prediction about Future of Inflation

The Phillip’s curve is obsolete. Inflation does not reliably depend on employment. So what other model could we depend on? This one showing core inflation plotted against an aggregate corporate profit rate minus a mix of nominal rates. (FRED data link) Mixed nominal rate = 0.56*Fed rate + 0.44*10-year treasury Here we have quarterly data […]