The US Presidential election as forecast by State polling: tending towards a Biden blowout?
The US Presidential election as forecast by State polling: tending towards a Biden blowout?
Last week I posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the last 30 days. There has been extensive polling in the past week, so I have updated the map.
Here’s how it works:
– States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups.
– States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors.
– States where the range is between 5% and 10% are medium colors.
– States where the candidate is leading by 10% plus are dark colors.
Here is the updated map:
The most important change since last week is that we got extensive polling for Pennsylvania, which moves that State from toss-up into likely Biden. Florida and Minnesota both moved one category more firmly into Biden territory.
Even though I certainly expect some of the Confederate States, like Texas and Arkansas, to return to the Trump fold, as of now, if Biden were to simply win the States in which he leads by 5% or more in the polling, he would win the Electoral College, without even winning a single “toss-up” or “lean Biden” State as shown on the map.
Last week I noted that Trump always polls his worst when he appears both cruel and clueless. Let me illustrate that using Nate Silver’s graph of Trump approval and disapproval
Trump polled his best during the impeachment and immediately after when he briefly seemed to take the coronavirus seriously; the “rally round the flag” effect. Conversely, his worst approvals have come at four times:
Trump has totally backed himself into a corner where the pandemic is concerned. He can’t suddenly start taking it seriously again. After all, that would be admitting that he was wrong before. And the pandemic will not be controlled in the next several months, which means the economy is not going to meaningfully improve. Indeed, in the recklessly reopened States, where businesses will likely have to close again, it is probably going to get worse. And some of these are swing States.
Finally, Biden is a well-known politician. He isn’t a newcomer like Dukakis who can be defined by a few devastating ads. While Trump’s standing may revert towards his mean, I just don’t see a big improvement from here. If anything, I think it is more likely that more of his fans abandon him as they sense that he will lose, and the US election moves towards a Biden blowout.
I think the only thing that could move the needle at this point would be COVID-19 going away—dramatically reduced serious cases so it really is like ordinary flu—such that the US and world economy is roaring by November 3, 2020. Think the odds of that happening are slim and none. Even if Biden makes his expected gaffes I just do not think that will move voters away from the conclusion that the Trump presidency has been an abject failure for the country—as opposed to the very rich, very racist, gun nuts and evangelicals. Even that last group can hardly view Trump as a success. I suppose Biden could become seriously ill or die—he is 77 but as long as his vp seems competent and is not as polarizing as Hillary, Trump still loses.
Reposting,
In the week after the November election,
one of two things must happen if Trump
is not reelected:
Trump will declare the election null & void,
due to ‘fraud & irregularities’, and declare
himself reelected for another term.
– or –
Trump will resign, and immediately be
pardoned by now-President Pence.
—
These are not mutually exclusive, however.
There is hopeful speculation
that Trump would quit by November rather than lose to Biden.
Expect furious voter suppression from McConnell & the GOP,
if there’s no withdrawal from Trump. Or maybe if there is.
It seems a majority like Biden and dislike Trump .
They’ll accept Biden’s gaffes but not Trump’s venality & incoherence.
Don’t expect rationality to impact a U.S. election.
“and is not as polarizing as Hillary”
Remember too, that Fox was campaigning against Hilary for 12 years.
The prime reasons for the anybody but trump or Clinton vote. Lies, supposition, conjecture, innuendo . . . Repubs deserve the sound thrashing they will get this Fall
Trump’s rise in popularity during his impeachment is a large reason (among many others) that the House should not impeach him again.
Those other reasons:
Senate will do nothing
House does not have enough time to even come to a vote before the election
Takes Dem House members away from the campaign trail (as restricted as that may be).
A blowout is necessary because we need the Senate. Without the Senate, given the absolute mess the country is in and the pathology of the Republican party, they will just Obama Biden and we will be in for at least four years of nothing substantial happening. Even with the Senate they are going to have to chuck the filibuster.
SW,
Agreed about the Senate and the filibuster. But at this point something substantial can be done with throwing out trump’s executive orders and his appointees.
Getting rid of Barr would be wonderful news. Filling the EPA, CFPB, etc., leadership with competent, honest professionals would seem like heaven.
Not enough, but that is a great step forward.
Surprised at Montana being deep blue. What’s the reliability of the poll(s) serving as the basis for that? I had the impression it was quite the opposite.