At least today, things are looking up for the Democrats
Haley
Nikki Haley is staying in the race for the Republican nomination, at least for now.
Why? If she only cares about becoming president, this year could be her best shot even with Trump way ahead of her in the polls. Trump may be convicted or become incapacitated, and she could win the nomination as the last woman standing. It is far from clear her political brand will be in better shape with Republican primary voters 4 years from now. She may also genuinely believe Trump is dangerous and want to derail his candidacy, or she may just want to poke Trump in the eye. In any event, she could do serious damage to Trump’s general election prospects by emphasizing his cognitive decline and goading him into overreacting to her perceived insolence.
Trump
Meanwhile Trump is damaging himself. He is petulant, self absorbed, divisive, scary, and very possibly suffering from some form of dementia. And let’s not even talk about his personal hygiene. (Are the rumors true? I have no idea. But we can still talk about it, and so can Democratic surrogates. I doubt Trump will react well.)
Trump’s effort to scuttle the bipartisan Senate deal to reduce immigration flows and fund Ukraine is politically insane. Biden has already announced he will close down the border if Congress gives him the authority to do so. So now they are going to refuse to let Biden control immigration, for openly obstructionist, partisan reasons?
Immigration was an issue that appeared to get away from Biden. He needed to push for compromise much sooner, not in the expectation that anything would get done, which was always unlikely, but to position himself as a moderate willing to compromise and to blame the Republicans for problems on the border. Biden missed that opportunity, now Trump is giving it back to him.
Ukraine
What does this mean for Ukraine? Maybe the border/Ukraine deal will go through. Majorities in both houses of Congress want aid to Ukraine (I think), and Republicans may realize that they have boxed themselves into a corner. However, it is still unclear what will happen, especially in the House, where the new Speaker will be under pressure from his extremists not to bring the bill to the floor.
If Speaker Johnson will not bring a Senate deal to the floor of the House, what leverage do the Democrats have, beyond bashing Republicans for playing politics? I haven’t studied this and am not on top of the procedural rules, but I’ll throw out one possibility: If Johnson kills aid to Ukraine, Biden could veto the budget bills until Johnson allows an up or down vote on Ukraine (with the border package and aid to Israel, presumably). This would be a risky move; shutting down the government is never popular. But asking for an up or down vote on a package that many Americans support doesn’t seem like political suicide. The alternative is disastrous for Ukraine and for the United States’ role in the world.
‘If Johnson kills aid to Ukraine, Biden could veto the budget bills until Johnson allows an up or down vote on Ukraine (with the border package and aid to Israel, presumably).”
Any budget under Johnson would have to make it through the Democratically-controlled Senate first, before it even hit Biden’s desk. Somehow, I don’t see that happening.
Twenty (20) years ago I expressed concern at the prospect of a President declaring Martial Law, disbanding Congress as ‘obstructionist’ and sending them home for a vote of confidence
That’ll never happen …
Haley can stay in all the way if she wants to, but it won’t give her much of an edge on the nomination if Trump blows up. Ron DeSantis would be a lot more likely. No one projects Dean Philips if President Biden can’t go the distance, right? She’s in it to beat Trump, not just be around and available. Doubt she can do it, but she’s entitled to try.
There is a procedure to bring a vote to the House Floor without the Speaker’s approval, however, it is complicated, time-consuming, and rarely used. In recent months it has been proposed more and more with the extreme Trump-controlled MAGAs blocking critically important legislation that has majority, narrow bipartisan support. A relatively simple change in the House rules to make the “discharge petition process” less cumbersome could eliminate much of the Congressional gridlock that currently exists. Unfortunately, discussing rational Congressional Rules Reform to improve governmental decision-making in today’s chaotic political environment seems far removed from reality.
What is a Discharge Petition?
To Discharge a Bill from a Standing Committee:
(details explained at link)
After a bill has been introduced and referred to a standing committee for 30 days, a member of the House can file a motion to have the bill discharged, or released, from consideration by the committee. In order to do this, a majority of the House (218 voting members, not delegates) must sign the petition. Once a discharge petition reaches 218 members, after several legislative days, the House considers the motion to discharge the legislation and takes a vote after 20 minutes of debate. If the vote passes (by all those who signed the petition in the first place), then the House will take up the measure.
Dems are maybe doing ok of recent. Maybe. Can it last?
Taylor Swift may not be poised to endorse Joe Biden, although she is said to be a solid Dem supporter. And is certainly outspoken, though perhaps reluctantly political.
Nikki Haley, the longer she stays in, will at least draw votes away from the former president (presumably.) Dems are also looking for moderate GOP votes though. But possibly she could pull some conservative Dem votes also. Maybe only a smattering.
Continuing Resolutions Are Stopgap Measures — But Now We Average Five a Year
(from the Pete Peterson Foundation – who else?)
Ok, so passing Continuing Resolutions is far from easy, but easier than enacting a budget, evidently.
Vaguely related?
Trump’s Attacks on Taylor Swift
NY Times – very, very early this morning
As the ex-president takes on the pop megastar, Jimmy Kimmel predicts this might be the offense that finally brings down Donald Trump.
(I wish I could find a better, fresher place to post this, but that might prove unwise.)
Our Economy Isn’t ‘Goldilocks.’ It’s Better.
NY Times – Paul Krugman – yesterday
(One of the reasons I pay for an NY Times subscription is to have access to the writings of Paul Krugman. This piece is justification enough for that. Perhaps I will post more of it.)
Fred:
One of the ways you could use Krugman’s article is to write a post and break his article into parts using statements and your words why Krugman is right. I will put it up there. You have to write it.
I’ll content myself with just urging folks to just go somewhere (a local library?) and read the article. Libraries (around here at least) often have on-line access to the NY Times, if not print copies.
(I wish I could find a better, fresher place to post this, but that might prove unwise.)
Our Economy Isn’t ‘Goldilocks.’ It’s Better.
NY Times – Paul Krugman – yesterday
“Let’s be honest, this is a good economy.”
So declared Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, in his news conference on Wednesday after the Fed’s latest policy meeting. He’s right, even if the public isn’t fully convinced (although the gap between economic perceptions and reality seems to be narrowing). In fact, Powell is clearly wrestling with a dilemma many countries wish they had: What’s the right monetary policy when the news is good on just about all fronts?
Contrary to what you may have heard, this is not a “Goldilocks economy” — get your children’s stories right, folks! Goldilocks found a bowl of porridge that was neither too hot nor too cold. We have an economy that is both piping hot (in terms of growth and job creation) and refreshingly cool (in terms of inflation). …
(One of the reasons I pay for an NY Times subscription is to have access to the writings of Paul Krugman. This piece is justification enough for that. Perhaps I will post more of it.)
(That’s all I am going to post. Perhaps you should go down to your local library and read a copy, or head down to your local newsstand & buy one. As with most/all Krugman op-eds, there are many links you won’t have access to, alas.)
It seems not really worth noting that the last ‘Open Thread’ went up on this board a week ago today.
Fred:
Do you have money?
And then, a little while later, a new Open Thread appeared.