Trends in Electric Cars a Global EV Outlook 2024
A while back, I exchanged emails with the International Energy Agency. My goal was to find out what I could present, what I could not present, and also gain permission to utilize their charts and detail. They said yes. The detail here is on EVs in general and what countries are doing the most. As you may expect, China is ahead of the curve. I would say the US is still trying to get it right.
I need to look a bit deeper into these reports as there may be additional information to present here at Angry Bear.
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The new Global EV Outlook finds the world’s electric car fleet continues to grow strongly, with sales set to reach 17 million this year. This in spite of near-term challenges in some markets. Based on today’s policy settings, the report projects almost one in three cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric. Almost one in five cars in both the United States and European Union will be electric.
Here are some other important takeaways:
- In the first quarter of 2024, global electric car sales grew by about 25% compared with the same period last year – similar to the growth rate seen in the first quarter of 2023, but from a larger base. The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020.
- In 2024, electric car sales in China are projected to leap to about 10 million, accounting for about 45% of all car sales in the country. In the United States, roughly one in nine cars sold are set to be electric – while in Europe, despite the phasing out of subsidies in some countries, electric cars are still set to represent about one in four cars sold in the context of a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales. [See chart below for more]
- This growth builds on a record-breaking 2023. Last year, global electric car sales soared by 35% to almost 14 million. While demand remained largely concentrated in China, Europe and the United States, growth also picked up in some emerging markets such as Viet Nam and Thailand.
- Under current policy settings, the rapid uptake of electric vehicles – including not just cars, but also vans, trucks, buses, and two- and three-wheelers – is projected to avoid the need for more than 10 million barrels of oil per day in 2035. That’s equivalent to all the oil demand from road transport in the United States today.
Executive Director Fatih Birol: “The continued momentum behind electric cars is clear in IEG data, although it is stronger in some markets than others. Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth. The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is advancing to meet automakers’ ambitious plans for expansion. As a result, the share of EVs on the roads is expected to continue to climb rapidly. Based on today’s policy settings alone, almost one in three cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric, and almost one in five in both the United States and European Union. This shift will have major ramifications for both the auto industry and the energy sector.”
Electric cars continue to make progress towards becoming a mass-market product in a larger number of countries. Tight margins, volatile battery metal prices, high inflation, and the phasing out of purchase incentives in some countries have sparked concerns about the industry’s pace of growth, but global sales data remain strong.