« Back

Open Thread February 13 2024 Inflation cooled again in January . . .

Angry Bear | February 13, 2024 1:29 pm

Hot Topics

Politics

US Economics

but came in above Wall Street’s expectations, another sign that the Federal Reserve’s path to interest-rate cuts is far from settled.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that consumer prices rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, versus a December gain of 3.4%. That marked the lowest reading since June. Inflation at 3.1% Reflects “Stubborn Pricing Pressure, Clouding Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts,” msn.com, WSJ article.

Open Thread February 6 2024 “hard to find jobs right now even with low unemployment” – Angry Bear

24 Comments

Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 13, 2024 at 5:34 pm

Stocks Sink as Stubborn Inflation Resets Fed Rate Forecasts

NY Times – an hour ago

A hotter-than-expected inflation report led investors to push out their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts until later in the year.

Stocks tumbled on Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected inflation report pushed investors to rethink bets on how soon the Federal Reserve will take the brakes off the economy and cut interest rates.

The benchmark S&P 500 stock index fell 1.4 percent. The index has suffered only one other loss greater than 1 percent this year, with bullishness about the resilience of the economy and corporate profits continually pushing stocks to new highs.

Investors still expect the Fed to pull inflation back to manageable levels without inflicting too much pain on the broader economy. But that forecast was put under pressure on Tuesday by a consumer inflation report that showed prices had been rising more quickly than what had been forecast. …

(As always, after days on Wall Street like this, buying opportunities abound. Maybe wait a few days for the dust to settle?)
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 15, 2024 at 7:59 am
  
  Not too surprisingly, they bounced back about half-way on Wednesday.
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 14, 2024 at 8:35 am

Why Biden Should Talk Up Economic Success

NY Times – Paul Krugman – Feb 13

The U.S. economy has just gone through an extraordinarily successful year. Many economists (although not all of us) predicted that getting inflation under control would require a recession and an extended period of high unemployment. Instead, inflation has plunged — over the past six months the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation has been running slightly below the target rate of 2 percent — even as the economy has boomed, with real G.D.P. rising 3.1 percent and employment rising by 2.9 million.

In case you’re wondering, Tuesday’s somewhat hot inflation report doesn’t change the story much. You never want to read too much into one month’s data, especially for January, which is often erratic. As Goldman Sachs noted in advance in a newsletter, the bank expects “a temporary boost to core C.P.I. from start-of-year price increases, which we expect to be most pronounced in the prescription drugs, car insurance, tobacco, and medical services categories.”

Fundamentally, the economic picture remains very good.

Yet I keep hearing political analysts and commentators saying that President Biden shouldn’t boast about the good economy, because Americans aren’t feeling it, and talking up the good news makes Democrats seem out of touch.

This is very strange advice.

For one thing, when has being humble about the economy ever worked as a political strategy? Donald Trump boasted about job creation in May 2020, when the unemployment rate was 13.3 percent, because it was down from 14.7 percent the previous month. Did this hurt him? Are pundits suggesting that Biden emulate Jimmy Carter by talking about national malaise? …
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 15, 2024 at 6:17 am

Putin says he prefers Biden to Trump in the White House

USA Today – just in

He says Biden is more experienced. He’s more predictable. He doesn’t think his age or mental acuity are a problem.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday in an interview on his country’s state TV that he’d rather have Joe Biden, 81, in the White House than Donald Trump, 77, because the former was an “old-school” politician.

They were Putin’s first public comments on this year’s U.S. presidential election. Russia’s leader often makes unreliable and contradictory statements that mask and distort his positions and intentions in order to sow chaos.

Still, Putin’s remarks come amid growing tensions between Democrats and Republicans over the Biden administrations’s efforts to send more military aid to Ukraine as Moscow’s invasion nears the two-year mark. …

In the state TV interview, Putin said he was ultimately prepared to “work with any U.S. leader who wins the trust of the American people.” But he said a Biden presidency would be better for Russia because the current U.S. leader “was a more experienced person, he is predictable, he is a politician of the old-school.”

Putin said when he last met Biden in Geneva in 2021 he had not noticed anything peculiar about his sharpness and that those who say Biden is not fit for office because of his age reflect a “vicious” U.S. election campaign. …

“Even then people were saying that he was incompetent, but I did not see anything of this sort,” Putin said. “Yes, he was peeking at his notes from time to time, but, frankly speaking, I was peeking at mine as well. So he banged his head on his helicopter when he was getting out of it − who hasn’t banged their head on something?”
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 15, 2024 at 6:23 am
  
  (Also in that article…)
  
  Putin’s remarks also follow comments made by Trump that he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO members who don’t meet the U.S.-led military alliance’s financial contribution targets, set at 2% of a nation’s GDP.
  
  U.S. officials warned Wednesday of a “serious national security threat” involving Russia’s alleged attempts to deploy nuclear weapons into space. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday dismissed that suggestion as a political “trick” by the White House, though he did not elaborate what he meant by that. …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 15, 2024 at 6:29 am
    
    Related?
    
    Pentagon launches six satellites to boost missile tracking capability
    
    Defense News – yesterday
    
    The Space Development Agency and the Missile Defense Agency launched six satellites Wednesday designed to demonstrate the ability to track high-speed missile threats.
    
    A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carried the satellites, four of which support the Space Development Agency’s constellation of tracking spacecraft and two are part of the Missile Defense Agency’s Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor program, or HBTSS.
    
    The agencies, along with the Space Force, have been working together to develop a more robust network of satellites that can detect and track traditional ballistic missiles and maneuvering hypersonic weapons, which can travel at speeds above Mach 5. …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 15, 2024 at 8:58 am
  
  Putin Says He Prefers Biden Over Trump. Commentators Are Skeptical.
  
  NY Times – just in
  
  The Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, called President Biden experienced and predictable. But Moscow watchers said the comments most likely had an ulterior motive.
  
  … Some commentators quickly dismissed Mr. Putin’s comments as a provocation or perhaps as a roundabout attempt to weigh down Mr. Biden’s campaign by saddling him with the endorsement of one of America’s main adversaries.
  
  It was also the latest in a series of comments by Mr. Putin that seemed aimed at keeping tensions with the United States in check, coming at a time when other developments — such as jitters about Russia’s possible plans to deploy a space-based nuclear weapon — threaten to exacerbate the strains in the countries’ relations.
  
  Mr. Trump stunned policymakers this past week when he said that he would invite Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to NATO member countries that had not met their commitments on military spending.
  
  Referring to Mr. Trump’s comments, Mr. Putin said in the interview on Wednesday, “Let them figure it out themselves — that’s their problem.” …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 15, 2024 at 9:00 am
    
    Russia’s Advances on Space-Based Nuclear Weapon Draw US Concerns
    
    The United States has informed Congress and its allies in Europe about Russian advances on a new, space-based nuclear weapon designed to threaten America’s extensive satellite network, according to current and former officials briefed on the matter.
    
    Such a satellite-killing weapon, if deployed, could destroy civilian communications, surveillance from space and military command-and control operations by the United States and its allies. At the moment, the United States does not have the ability to counter such a weapon and defend its satellites, a former official said.
    
    Officials said that the new intelligence, which they did not describe in detail, raised serious questions about whether Russia was preparing to abandon the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which bans all orbital nuclear weapons. But since Russia does not appear close to deploying the weapon, they said, it is not considered an urgent threat. …
    - Fred C. Dobbs says:
      
      February 15, 2024 at 9:16 am
      
      The intelligence was made public, in part, in a cryptic announcement on Wednesday by Representative Michael R. Turner, Republican of Ohio and the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. He called on the Biden administration to declassify the information without saying specifically what it was. …
      
      Mr. Turner’s statement, and his decision to share the information with others in Congress, set Washington abuzz on Wednesday about what the intelligence was.
      
      But the statement infuriated White House officials, who feared the loss of important sources of information on Russia. While Mr. Turner has been an ally to the White House on Ukraine aid, his remarks on Wednesday became the latest flashpoint in strained relations between the Biden administration and congressional Republicans.
      
      The intelligence was developed in recent days, and while it is important, officials said it was not a break-the-glass kind of warning of any imminent threat. …
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 15, 2024 at 6:35 am

Putin complains about lack of piercing questions from Tucker Carlson

Reuters – yesterday

Russian President Vladimir Putin says he was surprised by a lack of sharp questions from U.S. television host Tucker Carlson in an interview that made headlines around the world last week.

Putin told a Russian TV interviewer, Pavel Zarubin, that he had wanted Carlson to behave more aggressively, which would have given him the right to reply just as pointedly.

“To be honest, I thought that he would behave aggressively and ask so-called sharp questions. I was not just prepared for this, I wanted it, because it would give me the opportunity to respond in the same way,” Putin said in comments broadcast on Wednesday. …
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 15, 2024 at 6:57 am

Japan’s Economy Slips Into Recession and to No. 4 in Global Ranking

NY Times – just in

… Japan’s economy, now slightly smaller than Germany’s, fell one notch to become the world’s fourth-largest economy.

On an annualized basis, gross domestic product fell 0.4 percent in October through December after a revised 3.3 percent decline in the previous three-month period. Economists had been forecasting fourth-quarter growth of around 1 percent. …

UK Economy Shrank as 2023 Ended, Tipping Into Recession

Britain’s economy sunk into a recession at the end of last year, capping off a year of economic strain in which interest rates were pushed to their highest level in a decade and a half to stamp out high inflation.

Gross domestic product contracted 0.3 percent in October to December from the previous quarter, when the economy shrank by 0.1 percent, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday. …

(UK has the sixth largest GDP. Germany is #3, India is #5. Japan, now #4 had been #3 in 2022, but has been shrinking annually in the past several years.)
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 15, 2024 at 11:35 am

Judge Sets Trial Date in Trump’s Manhattan Criminal Case

NY Times – just in

Ruling that the case against Donald J. Trump can proceed, Justice Juan M. Merchan said he planned to begin the trial on March 25.

A New York judge on Thursday rejected Donald J. Trump’s bid to throw out criminal charges against him stemming from a hush-money payment to a porn star, setting a trial date for next month and clearing the way for the first prosecution of a former American president. …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 15, 2024 at 11:44 am
  
  For the record…
  
  Trump charged with 34 felony counts in hush money scheme
  
  AP – April 4, 2023
  
  A stone-faced Donald Trump made a momentous courtroom appearance Tuesday when he was confronted with a 34-count felony indictment charging him in a scheme to bury allegations of extramarital affairs that arose during his first White House campaign. …
  
  The indictment centers on allegations that Trump falsified internal business records at his private company while trying to cover up an effort to illegally influence the 2016 election by arranging payments that silenced claims potentially harmful to his candidacy. It includes 34 counts of fudging records related to checks Trump sent to his personal lawyer and problem-solver to reimburse him for his role in paying off a porn actor who said she had an extramarital sexual encounter with Trump years earlier. …
J.P. McJefferson says:

February 16, 2024 at 5:58 am

This is interesting. The first sign of bipartisanship in the House that I have seen for a long time.

From Punchbowl News, 2/16/24 ( Sign up!):

“Ten House members (five from each party) have drafted a compromise Ukraine-Taiwan-Israel-border security bill. You can read the text here, and the summary here.

The 10 members — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Chavez-DeRemer, Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.), Jared Golden (D-Maine), Ed Case (D-Hawaii), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), Don Davis (D-N.C.) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.) — want to offer an alternative to the Senate’s $95 billion foreign-aid bill, which Johnson declared “dead on arrival” in the House. Their proposal would only cover a one-year period.

The proposal calls for nearly $48 billion in new aid for Ukraine, $10.4 billion for Israel, $5.4 billion for the Indo-Pacific including Taiwan and $2.4 billion to support U.S. operations in the Middle East, especially against the Houthis. Overall, this is $66 billion in “defense-only” support for the U.S. allies.

On border security, the Homeland Security secretary would be allowed to “suspend the entry of inadmissible aliens” in order to help achieve “operational control of the border.” Immigration officials could immediately detain and expel inadmissible migrants who cross over the U.S.-Mexico border or enter the country by other means. Asylum standards would be toughened, and the “Remain in Mexico” policy would be implemented for one year as well.

While GOP leaders will come under tremendous pressure from the growing anti-Ukraine faction in their conference to reject this proposal, there’s still a majority of House members who want to back Ukraine’s fight against Russia.

Progressive Democrats will strongly oppose the Israel funding due to the war in Gaza and lack of Palestinian aid, but again, Israel still has majority support on the Hill.

So this proposal is designed to up the ante for Johnson and the House GOP leadership.”
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 16, 2024 at 6:23 am

Trump May Face Harsh Punishment Thanks to a Mighty New York Law

NY Times – just in

In the civil fraud case brought by Attorney General Letitia James, the little-known measure could mean hundreds of millions in penalties.

When a New York judge delivers a final ruling in Donald J. Trump’s civil fraud trial as soon as Friday (today), the former president could face hundreds of millions in penalties and new restrictions on his family business. …

The law, often referred to by its shorthand, 63(12), which stems from its place in New York’s rule book, is a regulatory bazooka for the state’s attorney general, Letitia James. …

… a parade of witnesses echoed Ms. James’s claim that the former president’s annual financial statements were works of fiction, none offered evidence showing that Mr. Trump explicitly intended to fool the banks.

It might seem like a fatal flaw, but under 63(12), such evidence was not necessary to find fraud.

The law does not require the attorney general to show that Mr. Trump had intended to defraud anyone or that his actions resulted in financial loss. …

With that low bar, Justice Arthur F. Engoron, the judge presiding over the case, sided with Ms. James on her core claim before the trial began, finding that Mr. Trump had engaged in a pattern of fraud by exaggerating the value of his assets in statements filed to his lenders.

Ms. James’s burden of proof at the trial was higher: To persuade the judge that Mr. Trump had violated other state laws, she had to convince him that the former president acted with intent. …

But 63(12) requires Ms. James only to show that conduct was deceptive or created “an atmosphere conducive to fraud.” Past cases suggest that the word “fraud” itself is effectively a synonym for dishonest conduct, the attorney general argued in her lawsuit.

Once the attorney general has convinced a judge or jury that a defendant has acted deceptively, the punishment can be severe. The law allows Ms. James to seek the forfeit of money obtained through fraud.

The attorney general is seeking to recover about $370 million from Mr. Trump and his company, a potentially crushing amount. Of that total, $168 million represents the sum that Mr. Trump saved on loans by inflating his worth, she argues. …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 16, 2024 at 6:38 am
  
  (If funds need to be raised, there are ways to do so …)
  
  Trump Offers Scraps of His Mugshot Suit to NFT Buyers
  
  Rolling Stone – December 12
  
  FOR THE LOW low price of $4,653 (plus taxes and fees), you can own 47 digital Trump NFTs and exactly one physical Trump trading card. It’s the deal of the century, folks. …
  
  The new “mugshot edition” of the trading cards features a very special deal to entice Trump supporters to fork over even more cash. If one purchases 47 digital cards (in one transaction), they will receive a limited edition physical trading card featuring a scrap of fabric from the suit Trump wore when he had his mugshot taken during his August arrest in Fulton County, Georgia. With each card priced at $99, for a 47-card total of $4,653, it’s an absolute steal. …
  
  Alongside a sliver of fabric, fans who purchase 47 cards will also be invited to dine with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago Palm Beach resort, where you will be gifted another limited edition NFT, as well as a commemorative hoodie. …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 16, 2024 at 6:41 am
    
    In promotional materials for the series, Trump referred to his arrest-day suit as “The Most Historically Significant Artifact in United States History.” …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 16, 2024 at 7:02 am
    
    HOWEVER …
    
    Donald Trump Selling Pieces of Mugshot Suit but Read the Fine Print
    
    Business Insider – December 12
    
    … According to the site promoted by Trump on Truth Social, buying 47 digital cards also promises the buyer an “extraordinary” dinner with him at Mar-a-Lago.
    
    The fine print, however, notes that there’s a chance the cards’ purchaser never receives a physical card or piece of Trump’s suit at all.
    
    “In the event the Bonus Physical Card cannot be fulfilled due to an issue in the manufacturing, production, or delivery on the Bonus Physical Cards, individuals who qualified for the Bonus Physical Card will be awarded a limited edition Trump NFT in lieu thereof, as determined by us in our sole discretion,” the terms and conditions say.
    
    It also says that winners of the Mar-a-Lago dinner will be responsible for all of their travel expenses, including transportation and lodging.
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 17, 2024 at 6:44 am
    
    Other than this perhaps.
    
    Trump supporters set up $355m GoFundMe campaign for ‘unjust judgement’
    
    Hindustan Times – just in
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 18, 2024 at 12:59 pm
    
    Reeling From $450 Million Penalty, Trump Hawks $400 Shoes
    
    NY Times – just in
    
    In just the past year, Mr. Trump has promoted trading cards, his mug shot, scraps of his clothes and firearms bearing his name and likeness.
    
    … The former president took to the stage at Sneaker Con — facing a less friendly audience than is typical for his political rallies — brandishing golden shoes called the “Never Surrender High-Top,” which follow in the footsteps of Trump-branded products like Trump Water, Trump Vodka and Trump Steaks.
    
    “Wow, a lot of emotion, there’s a lot of emotion in this room,” Mr. Trump said after boos and cheers drowned out his voice as he began speaking. He added, “We’re going to remember the young people, we’re going to remember Sneaker Con.”
    
    The appearance, just hours before a scheduled campaign rally in Michigan, is the latest effort by Mr. Trump to capitalize on his brand as he faces staggering penalties in civil court cases and 91 felony counts across four criminal indictments. In just the past year, Mr. Trump has promoted trading cards, his mug shot, scraps of his clothes and firearms bearing his name and likeness. …
    - Fred C. Dobbs says:
      
      February 18, 2024 at 1:25 pm
      
      Trump admires commemorative Glock in SC gun shop
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 18, 2024 at 1:02 pm
    
    Reeling From $450 Million Penalty, Trump Hawks $400 Shoes
    
    NY Times – just in
    
    In just the past year, Mr. Trump has promoted trading cards, his mug shot, scraps of his clothes and firearms bearing his name and likeness.
    
    … The former president took to the stage at Sneaker Con — facing a less friendly audience than is typical for his political rallies — brandishing golden shoes called the “Never Surrender High-Top,” which follow in the footsteps of Trump-branded products like Trump Water, Trump Vodka and Trump Steaks.
    
    “Wow, a lot of emotion, there’s a lot of emotion in this room,” Mr. Trump said after boos and cheers drowned out his voice as he began speaking. He added, “We’re going to remember the young people, we’re going to remember Sneaker Con.”
    
    The appearance, just hours before a scheduled campaign rally in Michigan, is the latest effort by Mr. Trump to capitalize on his brand as he faces staggering penalties in civil court cases and 91 felony counts across four criminal indictments. In just the past year, Mr. Trump has promoted trading cards, his mug shot, scraps of his clothes and firearms bearing his name and likeness. …
    - Fred C. Dobbs says:
      
      February 18, 2024 at 1:28 pm
      
      The commemorative ‘Trump 45th” 9mm Glock pistol was the one he was admiring in that SC gun shop awhile ago. Not promoting it, it would seem.
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 16, 2024 at 6:51 am

In other news…

Aleksei Navalny Dies

Outspoken Putin Critic Is Dead, Russian State Media Reports

NY Times – just in

Aleksei A. Navalny, the most outspoken domestic critic of President Vladimir V. Putin, has died in prison, Russian state media said on Friday.

Mr. Navalny’s death was reported by Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service, according to Russian state media. In a statement carried by Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency, the penitentiary service said that Mr. Navalny lost consciousness on Friday taking a walk in the Arctic prison where he was moved late last year.

“The facility’s medical staff immediately arrived and an ambulance brigade was called,” the penitentiary service’s statement said. “All necessary resuscitation measures were taken, which did not lead to positive results. The ambulance doctors confirmed the death of the convict.” …