Hamas and Israel: A timely reminder
Timothy Snyder is a Yale historian. I’ve reviewed his books “Bloodlands” and “Black Earth” about the holocaust here and elsewhere. Snyder isn’t Israeli and he isn’t Jewish. But I think the comments he posted today on his Substack blog “Thinking about” deserve reflection. Here are the money grafs:
“In evaluating what Hamas has done, it is important to remember that the atrocious crimes are not (or are not only) ends in themselves. They are utterly horrible and deserving of every condemnation, but they are not mindless. Unlike Israelis, who are shocked and feel they must urgently act, Hamas has been working out this scenario for years. The people carrying out the bestial crimes follow a plan that anticipates an Israeli reaction.
“Classically, a terrorist provokes a state in order to generate so much suffering among his own people that they will take the terrorist’s side indefinitely.
“I won’t claim to know what Hamas expects from Israel, nor what Israel should do. That would be a matter for people with the languages and expertise to read and analyze the documents and the data. My point is that it is always worth asking, in such situations, whether you are following the terrorist’s script. If what you want to do is what your enemy wants you to do, someone is mistaken. It might be your enemy. But it also might be you.”
The world continues to get seemingly smaller & smaller. Or at least much more densely populated. There were some population maps put up in the NY Times the other day, of Israel and surroundings over the past 75 years or so. It looks pretty crowded over there.
My wife told me that Israel is about the same size and population as Connecticut, and that Gaza is about twice the size and population of Washington DC.
The ME is certainly crowded based on the natural resources, particularly water and arable land.
Wikipedia: Israel’s Total population 9,792,800
Note: includes over 200,000 Israelis and 250,000 Arabs in East Jerusalem, about 421,400 Jewish settlers on the West Bank, and about 42,000 in the Golan Heights (July 2007 estimate). Does not include Arab populations in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Does not include 222,000 foreigners living in the country.
Jews: 7.181 million, 73%; Arabs: 2.065 million; Other: .549 million, 6%
Wikipedia has the population of Palestine as 5 million.
The population of Israel as increased by a factor of 5 since 1960.
Since CT actually has 3M, and MA about twice that, the head count over there is more like CT & MA combined, Israel has 3x the number in CT. More if you include Palestine. Pretty crowded over there in that portion of the Levant.
During the (Balfour) Mandate period (starting in 1917), the struggle for Palestine was essentially a demographic race between the Jewish minority and the Arab majority, with the Mandate authorities determining the rules of the game. While the proportion of Arabs to Jews at the end of WWI was 11:1, by the eve of WWII, it was approximately two-thirds Arabs to one-third Jews, and remained as such until the outbreak of the 1948 War, with 600,000 Jews in the country and twice as many Arabs. The primary source of growth in the Jewish population was immigration whereas the rate of growth among the Arabs was due almost exclusively to natural population increase. (This) article surveys and analyzes the role of demography in shaping the policy and practice of the three sides of the Palestine triangle from the formulation of the Balfour declaration in 1917 to the 1947 United Nations’ partition resolution. The main contention is, that demographic calculations and estimations were behind the positions on the three main issues around which the conflict in Mandatory Palestine revolved: immigration, the establishment of institutions of representative self-government and the acquisition of land by Jews. …
Demography and the Struggle for Palestine, 1917–1947
Wikipedia:
Population of Israel on the Eve of 2023
Palestine, officially the State of Palestine, is a state located in the Southern Levant region of West Asia. – Wikipedia
Palestine is a state located in the Southern Levant region of West Asia. Officially governed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), it claims the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip as its territory, though the entirety of that territory has been under Israeli occupation since the 1967 Six-Day War. …
The current population is about 5 million.
I wonder if anyone, at the time, anticipated the severity and depth of the hatred that the creation of Israel has produced.
@Jack,
I’ll bet there were a lot of Palestinian arabs who did.
Understandably enough since it was their land that was being taken.
Maybe this is a rare case where the desired reaction by Israel serves both sides. Becoming a martyr seems to be discussed frequently by Hamas fighters as an exalted status and taking Hamas fighters out of the fight permanently is a goal Israel clearly has. You don’t “fight” in the manner of Hamas over the past days and somehow believe your enemy will operate with much mercy – or any, really. If Hamas obliges Gazan civilians to act as human shields (a very good bet) this will be horrendous. Even if it is not an obligation, the tightly limited geography will do much the same anyway.
Wow, blind boars and acorns … eyeah, it’s a suicide mission. Jihad
When left with nothing left to lose, these things happen …
Well I do think it was a type of murder/suicide operation. I think Snyder thinks that, too. If a extremely violent and lethal response is what is happening and will continue for quite some time, what Israel might get from it seems clearer than what Hamas can get from it, except maybe Hamas’ “benefit” is not comparable to Israel’s as it is not of this world. If that’s the case – or even just part of the motivation – then the idea that one of the parties is making a mistake may not be the case.
I wrote this about 2008 or so: I think it is still relevant to what is happening today. I also believe we do not know how many Palestinians have died due to actions of Hamas. As long as Israel continues to take the land of Palestinians forcefully, there will always be issues.
The Gaza Ghetto
“When does the mandate of victimhood expire?” he asked. “At what point does the Nazi genocide of Europe’s Jews cease to excuse the state of Israel from the demands of international law and of common humanity?” Fintan Otoole Irish Times 3
In an area that measures an ~6 miles wide by 25 miles long resides an
~1.5 million Palestinians2-3 million Palestinians. This equates 14,000+ people for each square mile of the Gaza strip if none of the land is used for farming. Some of this land was used to develop an economy, for the growing of strawberries and other fruits or vegetables to trade with Israel. All of that trade has ended with the closing of both the Egyptian and Israeli borders.Because of the signed Egyptian/Israel treaty from 67(?), the Egyptians can not support the Palestinians with arms or economically with trade, any other country, or group that makes war on Israel. They are bound to a treaty with Israel while at the same time and with the laying of a natural gas pipeline to Israel, Egypt sells natural gas to Israel at $3/cubic metre or $9 under the going market rate. Egypt is under pressure from the US to deny help to the Palestinians. The US holds ransom ~$3 billion in foreign aid to Egypt annually.
In comparison, Gaza is on the same economic level as many of the south Sahara nations with a large percentage of the Palestinians surviving on one meal per day. On June 19th of 2008, both Hamas and Israel agreed to a six month cease fire, All humanitarian efforts, including the 700 daily trucks of food and other aid, would resume with the agreed treaty. The increase in aid only reached 20% of the previous levels and the truce was broken by Israel with a November 4th raid on a Hamas defensive tunnel.
An extension of the 6 month cease fire was proposed in December coupled with a proposal of opening the crossings and allowing the maximum number of trucks to come into the Gaza. Israel stated it may be possible to extend the truce; but, there would be only 15% of the total amount of trucks agreed to in June and only if Hamas stopped launching rockets into Israel. Hamas refused and Israel attacked a sovereign country under the premise of rockets launched into Israel killing 20 people in 10 years.
Over a period of 12 days of combat; 17 mosques were hit, 1,000 targets were shelled or bombed, UN run facilities damaged, many private homes hit, and the basic infrastructure of water, electricity, and sanitation impaired. The casualties??? “37 dead Israelis around the Gaza strip over a 10-year period as compared to ~900 Palestinians in a few weeks.” Most were civilians and what the US would call collateral damage in Iraq. The blame of killing civilians is laid at Hamas feet with claims they are hiding amongst civilians. To put this into a US perspective, take the city of Madison, Wisconsin and double the area of it from 67 square miles to 150 square miles. Cram six times its population of 223,000 into it or 10,000 people per each square mile (150 square miles) or 1 person for every ~2800 square feet or one person for every ~area 50 by 50 feet. Is it hard to believe that civilians will not die in such a congested area when lobbing 155mm howitzers shells into their midst or dropping 500# bombs? The bursting radius of the shells exceeds the area per person. There is no escape. Gaza is little more than a walled in ghetto being brought into submission by war and economic starvation.
What is interesting is the split amongst the Palestinians. The PLO have taken the role of negotiators and Hamas more so that of anti-treaty forces. It has “a lot in common with the division between the Irish Free State and anti-treaty forces that led to the 1922-3 Irish civil war; that Hamas’s refusal to recognise Israel – and the enemies of Michael Collins who refused to recognise the Anglo-Irish Treaty and the border with Northern Ireland – are tragedies that have a lot in common, Israel now playing the role of Britain, urging the pro-treaty men (Mahmoud Abbas) to destroy the anti-treaty men (Hamas).” 2 Israel acts no different towards either political group.
To reinforce its global position and justify its actions, Israel plays the game of “What if?” A specious game, the game of “What If”’ and Israel wants you and the rest of the world to imagine what it would be like to live under the “threat” of attack . . . the suggested landing of rockets within reach of your home or business, the psychological threat of constantly having to duck for cover, and having to deal with the Palestinians who wish Israel would disappear off of the face of the earth. 37 Israelis dead over 10 years and ~900 Palestinians in a few weeks.
So Israel defends itself, defends itself against a hollow threat of rockets randomly launched from the Gaza Strip in an effort to gain open borders. Basically, Israel and the US are economically starving a people into submission, the same as Clinton did to Iraq that reversed the longevity of life, decreased the survival rate of children, and increased the birth rate deaths of children. Instead, we will reap another generation of violence. 20 Israelis dead over 10 years and ~900 Palestinians in a few weeks . . . it makes sense to me. Or does it?
1. “An Unnecessary War”
2. “Where Ever I Go, I hear the Same Tired Middle East Comparisons”
3. Why Do They Hate the West So Much?”
More Recent:
4. History of Mid-East peace talks, withdrawal from territories. – 2013
5. The Price of Oslo Aljazeera.com
Thinking Native Americans in USA.
The South Africa of the 1980’s.
Some progressives split with Biden and the Democrats on unqualified support for Israel
Boston Globe – Oct 10
Interesting! I thought the “progressives” were now the war party.
Markey got booed at the rally for Israel in Boston
(Lots of links here, not posted below.)
Sen. Ed Markey is among several left-leaning lawmakers who have pushed for a de-escalation of violence in Israel amid its war with the militant group Hamas.
Crowd rallies on Boston Common in support of Israel after Hamas attack
WBUR – Boston Uni Radio (PBS) – Oct 10
I think it is safe to say that the majority of Americans with the benefit of distance and time believe that our treatment of the native population was a disgrace. However, at the time and still to a degree in places it was personal. The impact of the atrocities committed on the bleeding edge of it transcended any grand view of the morality of the sweep of what was happening. I remember the six day war and how everyone that I was aware of was pulling for the plucky underdog fighting for its existence. Not having the benefit of time and distance, in the intervening years the Israelis seem to have looked at our treatment of the native population here as something of a role model. Rather ironic in view of the Jewish experience.
I think the majority of Americans do not think of experiences in the remote past as being “our(s)”. These often set the circumstances for actions and decisions we make in our contemporary world, but these things were not ours to claim for good or bad now. We celebrate the victory over the Nazi’s, but apart from a few very elderly, this was not our victory.
SW:
There is another SW posting here. Is this “Join our crappy HMO and we will clean your teeth twice a year throw in an eye exam and let you keep that $20 copay” your comment?
I agree entirely with the post. I opened angrybear/author to write it (really honestly I was about to).
I will write my post as a comment. Israel will massively retaliate for the terrorist attack (they have announced this and begun. I think this is a strategic mistake with *for Israel* only costs and no benefits. I think that by bombing they will play into Hamas’s hands (and if they re-occupy it would be a total utter disaster — I am guessing they won’t but should discuss that possibility too).
There are two pragmatic rationales for retaliation (both envoked). One is to reduce Hamas’s military/terrorist capacity, the other is to deter future attacks. Neither will work. The Hamas attack killing over 1000 Israelis was mostly the work of men with assault rifles. Hamas did not use military facilities which can be destroyed by bombs. The supply of men willing to (almost certainly) die in order to kill is roughly unlimited. The supply of assault rifles also is. By conventional standards, Israel has already eliminated all normal military capacity of Hamas (well there never was much). With Iron Dome they have already won the semi conventional war.
Israel can make it clear that the attack has lead to huge costs for Gazan Palistinians while doing nothing to advance their objective (elimination of Israel – the stated goal of Hamas which is supported by most residents of the Gaza strip as shown by p0lls). As if this were not clear already. Indeed how could it be any clearer ? It can’t be made any clearer. Israel will gain no deterrence benefit from retaliation — no one will learn anything new.
Now Israel has massive sympathy around the world. That is valuable. The inevitable massive civilian deaths from any attack on anything in the Gaza strip will reduce that sympathy. I think that that is a cost (to Israel) which outweighs any benefits to Israel of retaliation.
Now I oppose it, because I care about Palestinians, but my argument is that even those who don’t should see the logic of Joel’s argument (which is not only posted sooner, but also much more concise than my version).
Robert:
Having worked with various Marine units as a trained (USMC) Crypto Tech (don’t ask why this unit), Israel does not even have to fly into the Gaza with their jets or US supplied helicopters. It can sit a couple of miles back from the Gaza borders and lob 155mm howitzer rounds into it. The burst area exceeds the area or radius any one or more people can hide. They know this, the US knows this, and Hamas knows this.
The news is not telling us how many of the Gaza has been killed. As is typical of past interventions by Israel, it will be multiple times more. I suspect there is something political going on here, some thing or issue to resurrect Netanyahu’s image. All will be forgotten.
Fifty years and one day later . . . This will continue.
Is Hamas not holding hostages in Gaza?
Hamas is not Gaza.
There’s a photo currently in the NYT of a hostage bundled in a sheet being hauled into Gaza on a golf cart.
Palestinians with a captured Israeli civilian headed into Gaza
NYT – How Hamas took 150 Israelis Hostage in Gaza
Pentagon offering hostage rescue support to Israel
Task & Purpose – Oct 11
Pentagon Offers Help on Hostage-Rescue Planning
WSJ – behind a paywall
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin offered planning and intelligence services to help the Israeli Defense Forces plan hostage-rescue operations, according to a U.S. official.
Austin offered the services of Joint Special Operations Command, Fort Liberty, N.C., on Sunday to the the Israeli defense minister, Yoav Gallant. The discussions are ongoing, the officials said. “The IDF has been clear that they aren’t thinking about hostage rescue at the moment,” the official said. “It’s not clear what their plan is.” …
‘sit a couple of miles back from the Gaza borders and lob 155mm howitzer rounds into it’
Gaza is a densely populated civilian area.
That sounds a lot like war crimes to this ex-Army GI, infantry trained but not combat hardened. (No CIB, did get an ARCOM however, for ‘distinguished service in teaching’.)
Fred:
What do you think is happening now?
Chaos, most likely. Of a most violent variety. Too soon to tell.
“But centuries of hatred
have ears that can not hear
An eye for an eye, was all that filled their minds
And another eye for another eye
till everyone is blind”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNid0HAHWew
Another generation of despair and hatred is growing before our very eyes. This will go on long after we depart this life.
You can not keeping holding a people captive on a piece of small land called The GAZA.
Neither can you dispossess Palestinians of what little land they have left on the West Bank or The Gaza. The prejudices occur on both sides of this battle.