Ukraine update
The Yale historian Timothy Snyder first came to my attention in a footnote of an article in The New York Review of Books. The footnote gave a link to a series of 23 online lectures on the history of Ukraine, which I binge-watched over a period of about five days. I also read his books “Bloodlands” and “Black Earth.” Snyder also has a subscription-only Substack blog to which I subscribe.
Snyder travels frequently to Ukraine these days, and his latest Substack article is posted from Kyiv. As the war grinds on, Snyder argues that we in the US must be patient and continue to support Ukraine. He is convinced that Russia will lose and must lose in order to stabilize democracy in the world. Since the article is paywalled, I won’t post a link and I’ll just quote a couple of the money grafs as fair use:
“The Ukrainians are defending the legal order established after the Second World War. They have performed the entire NATO mission of absorbing and reversing an attack by Russia with a tiny percentage of NATO military budgets and zero losses from NATO members. Ukrainians are making a war in the Pacific much less likely by demonstrating to China that offensive operations are harder than they seem. They have made nuclear war less likely by demonstrating that nuclear blackmail need not work. Ukraine is also fighting to restore its grain exports to Africa and Asia, where millions of people have been put at risk by Russia’s attack on the Ukrainian economy. Last but not least, Ukrainians are demonstrating that a democracy can defend itself.
(snip)
“This war will not end because of one sudden event, but nor will it go on indefinitely. When and how it ends depends largely on us, on what we do, on how much we help. Even if we did not care at all about Ukrainians (and we should), getting this war to end with a Ukrainian victory would be by far the best thing Americans could do for themselves. Indeed, I do not think that, in the history of US foreign relations, there has ever been a chance to secure so much for Americans with so little effort by Americans. I do hope we take that chance.”
How will the war end?
The Modern War Institue at West Point – March 3, 2023
“HOW WILL THE WAR END? THOUGHTS ON UKRAINE, RUSSIA, AND A THEORY OF VICTORY”
‘Best’ way Ukraine War ends may be most dangerous
NY Post – February 9
(Tell me this could not all be more succinctly described as ‘The Revenge of the NeoCons.’)
the scent of victory…
“The smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole hill. Smelled like… victory.”
This is the gist of the NY Post op-ed…
“The first is a slow Russian victory. In terms of men, if almost nothing else, Russia has the ability to make this war grind on. The Kremlin is totally unbothered about loss of human life and will show — as Russian regimes have throughout history — that its own men, let alone their opponents, are just cannon fodder. They are dispensable and almost endlessly replaceable. If Ukraine does not have a weapons advantage then time and numbers will be on Russia’s side for Putin to achieve his hollow victory.
The second option is a fast Russian victory, most likely caused by Putin doing something so appalling — such as using a non-conventional weapon — that the war is terrorized to a stop. …
Option three is a fast Ukrainian victory. This is something that Zelensky and others obviously dream of. They dream of pushing Russia back to the borders of Ukraine that they invaded last year, perhaps also of taking back Crimea which the Russians seized in 2014. You sometimes hear people saying “Well why don’t we just give the Ukrainians everything they need now.” And there is an answer to that, which is the fourth option: a medium to slow Ukrainian victory. This is what NATO appears to be aiming for. …
The only other options were to allow Russia to win, swallow up a country and destabilize all of Europe, or to send American and other troops to the conflict. Thankfully, unlike other conflicts America has recently been involved in, the Ukrainians want to liberate themselves and just need the tools. This doesn’t require any American lives to be risked. … “
Unfortunately, the 5 options are above are mostly pretty obvious.
The trick is to find an option that doesn’t lead to thermonuclear destruction, and also stops further bloodshed & destruction.
The sooner the better. Should include a way for Russia, Ukraine and all of Europe to get along going forward. Seems unlikely, somehow.
I’m not sure who exactly the author here is speaking about when “the use of force” is referred to. The USA? NATO? Ukraine?
The Modern War Institute at West Point
The Modern War Institute (MWI) at West Point is a national resource at the United States Military Academy that studies recent and ongoing conflicts to prepare present and future leaders to win in a complex world.
J5 Strategic Plans and Policy
“Ukrainians are making a war in the Pacific much less likely by demonstrating to China that offensive operations are harder than they seem….”
A false and horrid passage.
China has been a peace loving and peace seeking nation for generations and needs no lessons in being peaceful from a wild-eyed neo-conservative academic.
Really, ltr, you should change your nom to lol
The definition of transparency though, I’ll give you that …
The comment (as are several other points) on ‘impressing’ China is a supposition.
War in West Pacific is a different realm, largely maritime, including vast distances, and sea lanes that need sustenance. Logistics and transport!
My observation, could be the view of both adversaries, is that war over Taiwan would be same as “burning the village to save it”.
While US/UK send a ‘tiny’ part of their military spending, the low inventory of munitions reflect the tiny investment made in preparing for industrial war with a near peer. The end of a long, burdensome supply line.
The $100 plus billion sent to Ukraine is about 25% of the acquisition spending for F-35 as estimated 5 years ago………
Not sure which is better spent?
@paddy,
“Logistics and transport” was a critical failure of the Russian military in Ukraine. That’s Snyder’s point when he says the Russian failure should give China pause. He’s right. Whether China sees that is another question, but I suspect its leaders are watching Ukraine closely because the similarities are greater than the differences.
@ltr,
“a wild-eyed neo-conservative academic.”
You know nothing about Dr. Snyder or his politics, so you resort to name-calling. Sad.
Apparently Elon Musk has denied Ukraine use of Starlink facilities to attack the Russian fleet and prepare for assault on Crimea. Since then he has leased the equipment to the U.S. government. His original denial was over concern Russia would go nuclear based on conversations with the Russian ambassador. Similarly, President Biden has dragged his feet on providing F16’s as the American military has criticized the Ukrainians for not using combined arms tactics correctly. Of course they ignored the fact that air support is necessary to that approach. The delay is apparently over the same concern about provoking nuclear use.
It would be good if the Biden administration adopted Dr. Snyder’s view and helped the Ukrainians succeed and not just survive. Republican resistance to that view has already arisen and is likely to increase.
@Jack,
Agreed on all counts. Of course, it’s not just the US, but other NATO countries that have stepped up and need to continue. As for the GOP, it seems that anything Biden supports they reflexively oppose.
The trouble, of course, is that they control the House and can choke off money.
Gee, Maybe Biden could divert some money from the Wall and spend it on national defense.
It would be great if Russia just didn’t pick on its neighbors.
The US, of course, would NEVER do that.
Unfortunately, the world has become a much smaller place over the past 123 years. And more dangerous also.
Do we want to take the risk of having it all blow up around us? So far, it looks like we’re just not really worried about that. Even that it’s stupid to do so. (This is pure neocon thinking.)
Although the tone of the latest G20 statement suggests that the consensus has begun to shift on that.