Why Do Voters Trust Republicans on the Economy More Than Democrats?
This is another inciteful commentary by “annie asks you.”
Just like Josh in the movie “Big,” I am raising my hand, stating “I don’t get it.” I don’t get it as to why people would prefer trump over Biden especially after two years of a recovering economy. Maybe many of them were not around for 2007/8 when the nation did not return to normalcy for years after the crash. A politician finally read the tea leaves, the nature of the economy (which is about the same as the leaves) and got it right.
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“Why Do Voters Trust Republicans on the Economy More Than Democrats?” annieasksyou…
“For all of the ‘pain at the pump’ stories, the answer is that wages and salaries have kept pace with inflation since Biden took office—and by this measure, most Americans are much better off than before the pandemic hit in 2020, and before he took office in 2021.”
—Robert J. Shapiro, Economist
I just don’t get it. OK; I get the part about the administration in office bearing the brunt of responsibility. Inflation is tough—especially for people whose budgets are already stretched—though it’s a worldwide problem and the US is less affected than many Western European countries.
But are people’s memories so short? Do they not remember the huge tax cut that was the only economic initiative from the former guy’s dreadful four years?
Are they unaware that when President Biden took office, we were in the throes of the pandemic, with massive unemployment that’s been essentially erased?
Do they not realize that historically, Democratic administrations are far better for Americans economically than are the trickle-down Republicans?
And are they unaware that when the Biden administration proposed inflation-fighting legislation that the Democrats passed, no Republicans voted for it?
And when reporters interview the voters who tell them they trust Republicans more to handle the economy, do they ever ask the follow-up question: WHY?
The quotation at the beginning of this post appears in an article that provides some solid information refuting the long-held but false assumption. It appeared in Washington Monthly last month, written by Robert J. Shapiro, an economist who formerly led the International Monetary Fund and is an adviser to policy makers and businesses.
The piece is titled “Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden. “
Shapiro begins with Ronald Reagan’s closing argument in his final debate with Jimmy Carter. He asked Americans “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Shapiro suggests that Republicans aren’t asking that question today because they know better: “Based on jobs, incomes, wealth, poverty, and health insurance, Americans are better off today, including inflation.”
The jobs record is indisputable, he says: “…more than 9.5 million unemployed Americans found jobs over the past 18 months, and the unemployment rate fell from 6.4 to 3.5 percent.”
The income picture is more complex because of the pandemic, which brought massive unemployment, supply problems, and energy cost increases that fueled inflation. Generous government spending led to the economic recovery but also was inflationary.
Thus, it’s necessary to examine how much inflation has cut into the “record 14.9 percent surge in overall wage and salary income since Biden took office.”
For most people, the answer appears to be “it hasn’t.” Wages and salaries have been sufficiently high to offset inflation, and “most Americans are much better off than before the pandemic hit in 2020, and before he [Biden] took office in 2021.”
I’m not including the specific details and technical note Shapiro provides to back up his assertions, but those who’d like to dig deeper can do so using this link.
“The math may sound complex, but in fact it’s simple: In June 2022, the average working American earned $74,643 in wages and salaries, compared to $74,624 in January 2021 and $70,274 in February 2020. Even with 9.5 million more people working, the average working person earned as much in June, after inflation, as when Biden took office.”
Thus, he states:
“The answer to Reagan’s question is ‘Yes’ on wages and salaries as well as jobs, a remarkable achievement given the pandemic.”
He adds that the government assistance to help us through the pandemic and the job growth that followed have made Americans “significantly wealthier than before Biden took office” through savings and spending that bolstered employment.
“According to the Federal Reserve, after inflation the net assets of Americans increased by nearly $2 trillion from the first quarter of 2021—when Biden took office—to the first quarter of 2022. (We exclude the top 1 percent because their assets are notoriously hard to measure.) “
As a super-pleasant surprise, net assets grew the fastest among low- and moderate-income families.
“From the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the inflation-adjusted wealth of households in the lowest income quintile jumped 15.2 percent and just 0.8 percent for those in the top income quintile (again, excluding the top 1 percent).”
In addition, the poverty rate fell an impressive two percent from December, 2020, to May, 2022—from 16.1 percent to 14.1 percent, according to the Center on Poverty & Social Policy at Columbia University. (Though as I’ve noted elsewhere, it’s now rising because the extension of the Child Tax Credit was defeated by the usual suspects in Congress; it must be reinstated.)
Similarly, the Biden administration’s efforts to enhance health care coverage led to a drop in the percentage of uninsured Americans to “record lows” from late in 2020 to the early months of 2022. Among adults aged 18 to 64, the drop was from 14.5 percent to 11.8 percent, and among children it decreased from 6.4 percent to 3.7 percent, reports The Department of Health and Human Services.
Shapiro concludes:
“Imagine how Donald Trump would brag if he could tout record job creation, record low poverty, and record health insurance coverage—not to mention wealth gains and wage and salary gains that kept up with inflation. That’s a message that Democrats should carry into the fall campaigns.”
So I’m scratching my head as I ponder all these improvements. Why on earth would anyone think we should elect trickle-down Republicans who always make sure the wealthiest Americans benefit from massive, largely unpaid-for tax cuts that don’t produce significant growth but do add greatly to the national debt—as well as to our nation’s unconscionable and destabilizing income inequality?
Please help me correct this gross misunderstanding among any voters who tell you they’re voting for the Republicans “because of the economy.”
Annie
Dear Annie,
Because more Americans believe in Gordon Gekko than believe in Jesus Christ.
Taken literally that was a joke, yet taken figuratively that was an honest answer. This AM Morning Joe was taking on the Right’s anti-woke lies which seem to work well enough to win far too many elections. When it comes to believing pretty lies, then beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. Which is to say that ordinary people are easily manipulated stumbling over the debris that litters their own trail of heartbreak.
How Environmentally Conscious Investing Became a Target of Conservatives
NY Times – Feb 28
The business world has been pulled into partisan politics, with Republicans bringing their battle against socially conscious investing to Congress.
It’s been a widely accepted trend in financial circles for nearly two decades. But suddenly, Republicans have launched an assault on a philosophy that says that companies should be concerned with not just profits but also how their businesses affect the environment and society.
More than $18 trillion is held in investment funds that follow the investing principle known as E.S.G. — shorthand for prioritizing environmental, social and governance factors — a strategy that has been adopted by major corporations around the globe.
Now, Republicans around the country say Wall Street has taken a sharp left turn, attacking what they term “woke capitalism” and dragging businesses, their onetime allies, into the culture wars.
The rancor escalated this week as Congress entered the fray. Republicans used their new majority in the House on Tuesday to vote, 216 to 204, to overturn a Department of Labor rule that allows retirement funds to consider climate change and other factors when choosing companies in which to invest. The Senate followed on Wednesday, as two Democrats, Senators Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana, joined Republicans in a 50-to-46 vote to send the resolution to President Biden’s desk. …
The White House has said Mr. Biden will block the resolution, in what could be the first veto of his presidency.
As if to underscore the issue’s sudden visibility, former Vice President Mike Pence let loose on Twitter on Tuesday. “Disappointing that President Biden is putting E.S.G. and woke policies above hard-working Americans’ retirement accounts!” wrote Mr. Pence, a potential 2024 candidate for the White House. “We will keep fighting until we put a stop to E.S.G. once and for all!”
E.S.G. investing has been routine on Wall Street for years. Most major companies issue extensive reports about their efforts to combat climate change and commitment to workplace diversity.
But in recent months, conservatives have increasingly attacked the practice, arguing that it promotes liberal priorities ranging from renewable energy to the Black Lives Matter movement.
And while E.S.G. applies to everything from diversity among corporate leaders to corruption controls, it’s the “E” in E.S.G. — the idea that the private sector needs to consider its impact on the environment — that has emerged as the top target of Republicans.
Officials in Republican-led states argue that it would lead to disinvestment in fossil fuel companies that provide tax revenue and jobs in their states, making it a top target of right-wing commentators and politicians. …
Is simple.
G☭Pers tell bigger lies and lie more often.
Democrats need to emulate.
I think voting Republican for the economy goes back to the era of “what’s good for GM is good for the nation”. Back when productivity gains were shared with the workforce, employees would get wage increases as big businesses prospered. Unions were a part of that, of course. Republican policies were “business friendly”, and back in the Eisenhower years infrastructure was intended to help American businesses prosper.
Once it got fixed in the public consciousness, the reality being the opposite did not matter.
There are obvious reasons the voting public trusts Republican economic management more that that of Democrats, I suspect. For starters, Republicans have traditionally highlighted two sets of domestic issues, social issues (racism and misogyny) and business promotion (socialism for the rich). Democrats have had a wider set of domestic policy concerns, many of which have been characterized as anti-business (by the rich and by Republicans). Large segments of the public naively equate “business-friendly” with good economic management.
In addition, the natural propaganda accompanying Republican policies is to claim that those policies are good for the economy – however disingenuous that claim may be. Democrats, on the other hand, claim their policies are good for minorities, the poor, the environment, fairness and, oh, by the way, the economy. The empirical evidence on economic management is easy to miss if one is not fairly well versed in data analysis. The less concentrated focus of Democratic policies is easy to notice, and again, easy to accuse of being anti-business.
This seems pretty simple to me. Assuming this is an accurate explanation, then what should Democrats do about it?
Macro:
Tell the truth and keep telling it even when what they do fails.
Terry:
True . . .
Trump Is Right About One Thing: ‘The Economy Does Better Under The Democrats’
Forbes – Nov 7, 2016
(The) Donald was absolutely right when he told Wolf Blitzer in 2004: “I’ve been around for a long time and it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans.”
That’s right. Trump said out loud the same thing that Hillary Clinton has asserted—and top academics and journalists have confirmed. The same thing I’ve been compiling cold, hard government data on since 1980: By crucial metrics like GDP, job creation, business investment and avoiding recessions, the economy does a lot better with Democrats in the White House than with Republicans. Just one eye-opening example: Nine of the last 10 recessions have been under Republicans.
Most Americans are profoundly ignorant. A combination of under-education and Christianity has produced a violent, willfully ignorant society that is deeply racist and hateful. Trumpism or MTG-ism is not new, but it seems more radical in the light of modern values and massive multi-media exposure. Republicans tell voters that Democrats are coming for their hard-earned wages so they can give free crack and televisions to “those people.” Republicans believe big government is bad unless it means more police and more military or any program they like. But when it comes to programs that help “those people,” they would rather die than save a sick Black child dying in a ghetto.
Americans are bizarre. Most believe that socialized medicine would destroy America because it would be three times as expensive and deliver much worse results. “Look at Europe,” they say, “People there have to wait thirty -seven years just to see a dentist!”
Americans believe that the USA is free and that they will be millionaires one day…or at least their kids will. So they vote against taxing the rich. They don’t know that America has one of the worst socio-economic mobilities in the developed world.
Democrats stupidly tell people like it is. They tell Americans that helping the poor, providing good education and affordable healthcare is a good idea (I gotta chuckle because I am pretty sure that Jesus, had he been real, would have said the same thing, which makes Republicans massively evil). The problem with democrats is that they fail to explain the benefits; they simply demand higher taxes to fund all this. Neither side is willing to cut military spending, end the War on Everything or the War on Drugs, rein in Wall Street or save the environment.
Americans get exactly what they deserve.
not really convinced that the so called ‘Christians’ are that, more like CINO, Christian in name only. they push what they they like from Christianity, and ignore the rest
“No true Scotsman, ” eh? Please define what Christianity is before calling people CINO’s. Is the old testament part of Christianity? Are all the parts of the new testament valid? What about the teachings of the Catholic Church or Martin Luther? How about Southern Baptist christianity in the Ante-Bellum South?
I think that calling people CINO’s or having some Imam call out Islamic terrorists by saying that is not true Islam misses the entire point of religion. Religion is a belief subject to interpretation and distortion. It is a fiction which can be adapted to any line of reasoning or action you choose. Christianity has demonstrated over its life that it is not a religion of tolerance and peace. no religion is.
Maybe the average voter isn’t as motivated by economics as is the average political analyst. Maybe money isn’t the measure of people’s interests, even their self-interest.
Or maybe there’s something happening that runs along the lines of the rich get really rich even with inflation while the not so rich and the actual poor just kind of keep pace.
And keeping pace means they are still behind in a world where health care, education, travel, and housing keeps costing more and more, never mind pensions and benefits for your retirement.
It would be of great value to actually find out why so many voters trust the Republicans more on the economy, as opposed to merely expressing incredulity (or brushing off the question with a snarky pseudo-answer). The second paragraph in Macroduck’s comment is a good start — Republicans tend to invoke the good of the whole country, at least rhetorically, while Democrats have an exasperating tendency to view the population as consisting of distinct groups which need to be appealed to and verbally checked off separately. I think there’s a lot more to the answer than just that one point, though.
well i suspect that the GOP does the same thing that you mentioned Democratic party members do. they appeal to only those groups who will support what they say, and they do seem to think that every thing they say is good for the country, in spite of being usually bad for the country. hence the fixation on there being no racism, and anything than could even sort of help those they dont like, they will support the other party
Infidel:
Even so, when policy intends to build in the areas of greatest need such as small-town America, the population steadily votes against their self-interests to favor the politics which will cause them harm. The scaling or skewing of resources towards those who need it more tends to be misinterpreted through Republican political assaults on the effort. It is there, the Dems need to answer. The population does have different needs and some need more than others. I tend to believe Dems fail in explaining.
I do not get it as to why people who are lied to repeatedly by their political interests or party. How many times do Repubs verbally “invoke the good of the whole country” philosophy where little, nothing good, productive, or positive comes out of it. It is just plain
liesDeSantos (my new word for lies).Should we again invest in the one tenth of 1 percenters making an average $14 million (pre-tax income) annually so we can have a better life. It did not work now and it did not work under Reagan forward to trump. Reagan destroyed the American Dream.
If the question is why so many voters think Republicans are better for the economy than Democrats are, the only way to get a valid answer to that question is to get a representative sample of voters who believe that and ask them why they believe that. (For all I know some polling company may already have done this, though I haven’t heard of such a thing.) Speculation along the lines of “why are people so dumb” or simple expression of incredulity will not produce any results of value. Given that objectively the economy does better under Democrats, but so many voters believe otherwise, it’s clear that the party’s messaging on the issue is failing to do its job. So, yes, it would be a good idea to find out the real reasons why so many voters have that misapprehension.
People believe things based on the way they are presented and ignore the reality of what actually happens. The narrative is the important thing. You get this in fiction all the time. There’s some character that everyone loves and is presented as a great guy even as he cuts a swath of destruction among his friends and family. The shows Fleabag and Breaking Bad were premised on this, getting the viewer to empathize with a horrible person.
Republicans are forever the party of tax cuts and deregulation. These lower costs and improve efficiency in our All American system of free enterprise. This logic is simple, straight forward, and, at least in an economic vacuum, always correct.
Plenty of republicans are plenty smart, but intelligence only gets you so far. If you never question your own assumptions, then the atttractions of self serving confirmation bias will prove irresistible to many of our 33 million small business owners, along with a fair proportion of their work force.
Democrats can and should continue to argue on economics. But if you start talking about “rent seeking” and “externalities” then you run into “all I know is if my taxes go up, then I have to raise my prices or cut costs elsewhere and that’s not good for my business”. And no it doesn’t matter that this is macro vs micro. On the whole, economics isn’t the best issue for democrats. Too much pain for too little gain.