New factory orders remain an economic bright spot

New factory orders remain an economic bright spot

 – by New Deal democrat

New factory orders for October were reported this morning. I normally don’t write about them, because they are very noisy, but since at the moment they are one of the few bright spots among the short leading indicators, let’s take a look.

Total new factory orders rose 1.0%. “Core” orders excluding defense and aircraft rose 0.6%:

“Core” orders have been flat for 2 months, which may or may not portend a turning, but as you can see from the below longer term view, typically factory orders turn down or at least flatten in the months before a recession – although it’s frequently only apparent in retrospect:

Consumer durable goods orders are also a short leading indicator. They were unchanged for the month:

With other measures of manufacturing from the regional Feds and ISM showing pronounced weakness, it’s a little surprising that it hasn’t shown up here.

Anyway, in the interest of balance, there are still some bright spots.

“Downturn in manufacturing new orders adds to evidence of slowdown,” Angry Bear angry bear blog