Russia is truly f*cked
I’m not talking about the current military situation or the ongoing destruction of the Russian armed forces; to be clear I hope Russia suffers a crushing defeat at the hands of the Ukrainians. I’m referring to the damage that the Ukraine war is doing to Russian society. This damage is immeasurable: extreme levels of political repression, the mass emigration of talented young people, loss of trade and direct foreign investment, the list goes on and on.
And then there’s the damage done to their soldiers – tens of thousands of men killed, disabled, traumatized – and the damage these soldiers will do when they return from this brutal war:
This study examines the impact of post–September 11 (post-9/11) combat deployments on crime among veterans. We exploit the administrative procedures by which US armed forces senior commanders conditionally randomly assign active-duty servicemen to overseas deployments to estimate the causal impact of modern warfare on crime. Using data from two national surveys and a unified framework, we find that post-9/11 combat deployments substantially increase the probability of crime commission among veterans. Combat exposure increases the likelihood of gang membership, trouble with the police, punishment under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, property crime, and violent crime.
This war is a catastrophe for the Russians, and the catastrophe will not end when hostilities cease. (And no, for the record, I’m not happy about that. We should do what we can – unfortunately, probably not much – to bring Russia into the community of democratic nations.)
The article linked above is on veterans post 9/11.
POST-9/11 WAR DEPLOYMENTS INCREASED CRIME AMONG VETERANS
US veterans that is.
Approximately 181,500 veterans are incarcerated in the United States, representing 8 percent of the prison and jail populations (Bronson et al. 2015). Many are veterans of wars waged in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), launched in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. Thirteen percent of currently incarcerated veterans served in the Afghanistan or Iraq conflicts and approximately 45,000 incarcerated veterans were exposed to combat during their war deployments. While the incarceration rate for veterans is nearly 10 percent lower than for civilians (855 per 100,000 veterans compared to 986 per 100,000 U.S. civilians), a far greater share of incarcerated veterans has been sentenced for violent offenses (64 percent versus 48 percent) (Bronson et al. 2015). Surveys of post-9/11 veterans suggest that approximately one-third have exhibited non-job-related physical aggression and a further 11 percent engaged in “severe or lethal violence” (Elbogen et al. 2012). High-profile incidents of violence committed by post-9/11 veterans, including aggravated assaults (Simkins 2018) and mass shootings (Keneally 2018), have permeated the national news media. The link between modern warfare and violence has been tied to historically high rates of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI), and substance abuse among combat veterans deployed during GWOT (Tanielian and Jaycox 2008; Cesur et al. 2019). …
There’s no reason to believe Russian (or Ukrainian) veterans will fare any better, however.
It seems likely that Russian casualty rates in Ukraine are far higher than US ones were over the 22 years since the events of 9/11. War is hell, not just for civilians.
Russian casualty rates in Ukraine are far higher than US ones were over the 22 years since the events of 9/11.
“
Lascia la spina, ma cogli la rosa!
yes, Fred, casualties are much easier to prevent than to treat. we should remember that 9/11 was a warning, a reiteration of the wisdom from years of military planning that teaches us to not build High skyscrapers but to build one story only structures, spread our buildings out over large amount of area. but if we do this how can all the people in the insurance company’s office be close enough to each other for more communication?
with a better system of roads that will link people together well enough so that we do not have to build skyscrapers. A proper gridwork of roads should include only one-way streets with free-flow interchanges, no traffic signals that turn off after disasters. With only one-way roads a free-flow interchange requires only 2 ramps.
Simplicity is the meaning life.
~~Occam’s first postulate~
Russia vs. Ukraine: How does this end?
Brookings Inst – March 10
Russia announces troop pullback after Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv area
Boston Globe – Sep 10
Do not see Putin backing down— has TFG shown any signs of backing down? The real question is why those close to Putin and TFG never challenge them.
Russia Confirms Flight of Troops From Ukraine’s Kharkiv Area
Bloomberg – Sep 10
Thousands of Russian troops retreated in the face of a lightning Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv region that threatens to derail the Kremlin’s bid to cement control of Ukraine’s east.
A local Moscow-backed official and pro-Russian military bloggers said Saturday that Kremlin forces had pulled out of Izyum, a staging post for the campaign in Donbas, to avoid being encircled. …
Elsewhere: “Russia has deployed helicopters and weapons in the occupied Ukrainian Kherson region in an effort to round up soldiers who had deserted…”
Barrier Troops
As early as WW1, Russia used ‘barrier troops’ to stop their own soldiers from fleeing battle. Used more extensively under Stalin in WW2. Used sporadically by other armies in other conflicts, presumably.
See also: Paths of Glory
Paths of Glory is a 1957 American anti-war film co-written and directed by Stanley Kubrick, based on the novel of the same name by Humphrey Cobb. Set during World War I, the film stars Kirk Douglas as Colonel Dax, the commanding officer of French soldiers who refuse to continue a suicidal attack, after which Dax attempts to defend them against charges of cowardice in a court-martial. …
Paths of Glory is based loosely on the true story of the Souain corporals affair, when four French soldiers were executed in 1915, during World War I under General Géraud Réveilhac, for failure to follow orders. …
Supposedly some open debate going on in Russian media about Ukraine.
Perhaps not so much about how to get out of there, maybe more about how to finish them off.
Not so hard to believe, things can get still worse over there. The hatred seems palpable.
Russian Retreat Prompts Rare Public Debate
NY Times – Sep 12