Growth in Population, Immigration, and Migration
Just some ramblings of mine after looking at numbers. I do know Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania voter politics are changing. They are slowly becoming Democratic. People migrating to other states appear to be more liberal than the ones living there already. AZ is a purple state. That is the longer term outlook.
It looks like Senator Kelly will win re-election. This comes after Republicans and SCOTUS have blown things up. We could use two more Dem Senators so we can tell Manchin where to politely go. Manchin is running West Virginia into the ground.
The numbers do not reflect massive immigration or over population. That whole concept being spun by Republicans is a lie and meant to aggravate people.
That is what my views are and maybe you have others.
On immigration “300 Million and Counting” | Smithsonian Magazine, Joel Garreau,
“This is crucial to everyone who plans to retire, because once you do, you’ll want a bunch of young, hardworking, tax-paying people supporting you, whether directly, through family contributions, or indirectly, through Social Security or pension programs. Unless you’re rich enough to live off your investments, there is no alternative. As it happens, retirement is on the minds of many, and not just in the United States.”
Today’s AZ population believes the state and the nation is being overrun by immigrants. Quite the opposite is taking place. Replacement rate has decreased. The US is on the verge of becoming much like European countries with decreasing population growth as the population ages.
There is some serious paranoia out there about immigration. Politicians, Republican politicians are making the most of it. I guess we could say the numbers do not reflect reality. Today’s reveal uses US Census, US Government numbers. They have their fingers in everything. There could be a conspiracy here? Doubtful . . .
What is interesting with all the noise about immigration is it having little impact on population growth. The other interesting part is the median age in 2006 was ~35. In 2020, the median age is 38.6. The US still has a younger population than much of the rest of the world even with a ~4 year shift.
“Population Grew 0.1% in 2021, Slowest Rate Since America’s Founding” (census.gov)
- Twenty twenty-one is the first year since 1937 the U.S. population grew by fewer than one million people. The lowest numeric growth since at least 1900 (Census Bureau began annual population estimates).
- Apart from the last few years, when population growth slowed to historically low levels, the slowest rate of growth in the 20th century was from 1918-1919 amid the influenza pandemic and WW I.
- The U.S. population grew at a slower rate in 2021 than in any other year since the founding of the nation. Data is based on historical decennial censuses and annual population estimates.
- The U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2021 Population Estimates released December 2021 reveals the population grew 0.1%. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the slower growth the country has experienced in recent years.
- For Social Security, the latest SSA projections indicate there will be 2.1 workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040, down from 3.7 in 1970.
- Statistical Replacement Rate in 2020 fell to 1,637.5 births per 1,000 women and down from 1.7 births per 1,000 women in 2019. Unless there is increased and younger population, the nation could have economic issues as a growing portion of the population ages out.
- In 2020, 1 in ~6 people were 65+ years of age and in 2040 1 in 5 will be 65+ years of age.
Kind of giving some direction here. Figure 1 pictorially reflects growth in population since 1900.
Population Change and Components of Change
- Quick Read. Births are down and deaths are up. International Migration is down. Percent change in population growth is way down.
- COVID-19, Declining Birth Rates and International Migration resulted in Historically Small Population Gains (US Census)
- Slower population growth has been a trend in the United States for several years. The trend comes from decreasing fertility and net international migration, combined with increasing mortality due to an aging population.
- Politically, larger populated states could lose representation. If immigrants were removed from the population count; Florida, Texas, and California would each lose one House Representative.
Immigration to the United States from other countries typically results in population growth. Intermarriage with other backgrounds typically does not happen for at least one generation. In 2006, Bush was the president and there was the problem of hopeful immigrants showing up at the Mexican border. Still an issue today and more so a political one. Figure 2 reflects population change and the components of the change. As you can see population growth is down as well as international immigration.
In Figure 2 displayed pictorially, immigration is way down and the US is not being overrun by immigrants. Saying it again to get the point across.
Largest Population Growth States
In the US, population is shifting from the North and East states to the South and West states. States gaining population are in Table 1. States losing population are in Table 2.
States in Population Decline
Joel Garreau, 300 Million and Counting
“However the debate is resolved, it’s probably worth noting a few historical assimilation practices in the United States.
– First, the US has a long and distinguished record of taking illiterate peasants from every desert, tundra and bog and turning them into overfed suburbanites in three generations or less.
– Second, new immigrants usually do not marry outside their ethnic group; their adult children do, with some controversy, and their adult grandchildren can’t remember what the fuss was all about.
– Finally, the traditional deal America has offered immigrants is: work, pay taxes, learn English, send your kids to school and stay out of trouble with the law, and we’ll pretty much leave you alone.
One fortuitous result of the enormous wave of immigrants coming to the United States is the median age is only a little over 35 (2006), one of the lowest among the world’s more developed countries. This country also has the most productive population per person of any country on the planet—no matter how you measure it, and especially compared with Japan and the members of the European Union.”
Joel Garreau wrote this in 2006. I do not see much change here other than decreased immigration, an aging population, a lower replacement rate, and a lot of political nonsense and scare tactics on the wrong issues.
The worst think that happened to Arizona politically recently was the appointment of then Democratic governor Janet Napolitano to the Obama cabinet, Secretary of Homeland Security in 2009. Arizona does not have a Lt. Governor system, so Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer became Governor. She was then succeeded by current governor Doug Ducey, a Koch brothers protege.
Although Republicans only control both legislative houses by one vote, they have managed to pass some of the most reactionary laws in the country. Just this year they voted in a massive school voucher program.
Arizona may or may not re-elect Mark Kelly to the US Senate, but unless they elect Democrat Katie Hobbs as Governor or manage to pick up one legislative seat in one of the two chambers, Arizona will remain a red state internally.
Nothing about internal climate migrations. I used to joke about cheering global sea levels rise and how in a few years Florida won’t be a problem, but to take the example at hand, Arizona … it’s doubtful anyone will live there in twenty years. Some of the maps I’m looking at pretty much everything south of Nebraska …
And, of course, nothing about external climate migrations …
I am always happy to see you and Infidel come by AB. I like the diversity of opinion. I am just looking at numbers of the larger picture. We hear about the tens of thousands trekking across Mexico to get to the border and be stymied there. The US is not birthing enough children to maintain today’s population (not that we should). The population is aging. Replacement Rate is dropping. And White Amerika is worried about being a minority in a land they believe is theirs.
I have not seen this year’s summer drop-off of migrants at the border. Usually, it decreases due to the desert heat as shown in past years. I suspect it will again and well before November. And then the fanatics will be whining about all the ones hiding here. Except, the numbers do not support their claims. Repubs and the sh*t-stirrers are rousing the rabble and the ignorant. Any day you can pick a discussion, just mention migrants or driving in the left lane.
People get angry over left-laners. Pinal County Sheriff Lamb has a YouTube up on the topic (kind of goes with this topic above) of driving in the left lane. He is all decked out in his white hat, flak jacket with clips of ammo for his pea-shooter, and his AR-style assault weapon.
On one stop the driver says he was doing 75mph in the left lane of the two lane north-bound. People were behind him, tailgating, and wanting to get by. The sheriff is explaining it is illegal to drive constantly in the left lane. The road speed limit is 65mph and the people catching up with the pulled-over driver were going faster than 75mph.
Lamb reminds everyone about driving in the Left Lane, everyone does high-fives and not a word is said about going well over the speed limit. You should see the sour faces when I mention that issue and the silence is stunning.
The US is losing population and what is left is aging. I would think we might want to consider more migrants coming to America. Who is going to do the work around here? White Americans don’t like getting their hands dirty and we are aging out.
Twenty years Ten Bears? I do not believe the heat will be bothering me then.
LOL ~ Left-Lane. They do that in Montana too; and Maine.
Great rant, write on; but I would like to address your closing sentence: my eighty-seven-year mother, in a trailer park in Waco, is wondering what all the hoopla is about. She’s got an old swamp-cooler hooked up to a couple car batteries she keeps charged with a trickle-charger. Learned that on the Southern California High Desert. Her mother lived to ninety-five, grandfather, my great grandfather, one-oh-five. Other side of the tree my father’s sister is at ninety-two holded up in the shade in Scottsdale (AZ), her mother lived just about that long and grandfather just short of ninety-nine plus. I’m in as good a shape as a guy almost seventy can be and I just find it prudent to not be so sure of not seeing what’s coming. I could easily see thirty or more more years. And things are playing out faster than we’ve been anticipating.
Thanks for the welcome, appreciate it …
“Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania voter politics are changing. They are slowly becoming Democratic. (Again?) People migrating to other states appear to be more liberal than the ones living there already. AZ is a purple state. “
Alrighty then! Sounds most hopeful.
How many times do I have to show the numbers from 1988? The vote Dem in Pres elections except for anyone but trump or Clinton.
Yeah, right, except for Trump and against Clinton. I feel so relieved. I will try to remember this in 2024. Hopefully it will be De Santis and not Trump on the ballot. But maybe Mitt Romney. And Jill Stein will stay out of it. Alrighty then!
You only get to say it once. You could have deleted the second post of the same commentary.
I am a pretty patient person and I like the people here. I take the time to read all of the comments. You have no data and you have a flawed opinion. The numbers support what I am saying no matter how hard you try to twist my words.
I can’t help it if this board does not handle replies well.
Swing states are especially easy to manipulate come presidential election time. Presumably that is going to continue. If you don’t think it’s going to happen again, soon, and you expect the Dems (of which I am one) to pull it off yet again, I sincerely hope you are right. I will continue to fund them (in my own modest way) to – maybe – make this happen.
At least with my now-adult children, who are MA-raised and totally progressive politically, they left MA to move to just as liberal Brooklyn and Berkeley. And then one went to even more liberal Portland OR.
I’m guessing that (young) people who are liberal are not moving to red states where they would not be politically comfortable (or even safe), even though their votes might be ‘helpful’.
I think most will go where they can work and make a good living. It is hard to reject a job in another state when you lost a job in the present state. Yea safety plays into it and good schools. I used to drive 100 miles one way in order to work and keep my family where they were. For five years, I also worked out of state. You (Fred) do what you have to do for family.
I am sure you have instilled similar traits in your children.
Perhaps, most of the people are angry enough to vote and vote Dem after all the events the nation has experienced. Sorry, you do not get to control the narrative here either.
It seems, doesn’t it, that with ‘swing states’, they keep swinging.
One party (may) figure out how to out smart (out maneuver?) the other party whenever they are ‘fully motivated’ or ‘outside influences’ come in to play. Take advantage of very close electoral counts and vast political differences between large segments of voters.
Portland. Liberal. If I start laughing I’ll hurt myself …
I did not notice the full meaning of the comment. You are right.