Climate chaos
(Dan here…lifted from David Zetland’s One-Handed Economist newsletter are some interesting links on climate change…and we need to consider the US heat dome as well as Great Britain and European heat waves)
Climate chaos (sorry for all the links, but shit’s getting out of control)
- Read: Researchers now estimate that humans cannot “tolerate” (=not die) wet-bulb temperatures above 31C (87F @100% humidity), which is much lower than the widely used cited figure of 35C. Some people now experience these temperatures (and feel terrible) but climate chaos will make them more common, in more places. Time for the matrix?
- Watch: John Oliver describes the clusterfuck of water in the Western US — something I’ve warned about for 15+ years.
- Read this paper on “climate insecurity,” which points out that loss of (potential) GDP — the conventional measure of “damage” — does not capture the damage (physical and psychological) from losing secure access to food, water, energy, etc. These insecurities will — as I have said many times — really harm what we consider “quality of life”
- Listen: “Today on Hot Take, Amy and Mary talk with David Wallace-Wells about the lessons we can learn from Covid-19, the parallels between pandemic response and climate response, and how Russia’s war in Ukraine sits at the intersection between the two.”
From the beginning of climate change as a recognizable risk, then that risk has been grossly underestimated. Most people do not even know that risk was first identified around the end of the 19th century despite that it took several more decades for the effects to become measurable (not for lack of effect, but rather for lack of measurements). If you have not already attentively viewed The World Set Free (episode 12 of Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey), then give it a spin paying close attention to the early scientists portion. Once the greenhouse effect was proven, then adding in human use of fossil fuels to produced climate change risk was not exactly rocket surgery.
For over half a century now our inner Pollyanna has obfuscated and denied the obvious while saner folk just watched in utter disbelief. I take little comfort in the growing terror that is now overwhelming our vacuous inner Pollyanna as her denial recedes.
BTW, thanks Dan. If we were to live long enough, then we would see climate chaos overshadow all of mankind’s other problems, past and present. Old age and mortality are indeed a blessing.
Thank you Ron. Here is a link to some of the latest calls for inaction
https://www.alternet.org/2022/07/joe-manchin-kills-climate-provisions/
Thanks for link and support of AlterNet Dan.
Most reporting on Manchin completely misses the point that West Virginia Democrat is an oxymoron, in and of itself. Furthermore, Joe Manchin is both a dumb ox and a moron (if what he says could be taken seriously as opinion rather than clandestinely as subterfuge and pandering). What more proof do we need? Manchin is either a deceitful crook or a huge fool. In this case, then we must depend upon the voters of West Virginia to end our pain, which is a dubious hope at best. If the Democratic Party divorces Manchin, then he will just run as an independent and if elected be vindictive.
Lincoln’s war had unintended consequences as if one might wish that only good would come from civil war. The list goes far beyond just Jim Crow and Joe Manchin, brothers-in-arms as it were.
I was told that as long as we tried to meet Manchin’s ever changing mysterious demands he would vote with his Democrat fellows.
Can it be that he is just an a$$hole.
Actually what we should do is take Manchin’s advise and elect more actual Democrats so some things can pass.
It makes more sense if you assume that Manchin is doing exactly what the Koch’s are telling him to do,
I just finished reading “The Uninhabitable Earth” by David Wallace-Wells. I highly recommend this book to anyone interested in where we are heading.
As Angry Bear is an economics blog to some extent, some of you will be interested in his various economic projections regarding different levels of temperature rise, from 1.5 degrees up to 5 or 6. The numbers are sobering.
<a href=”https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/us/politics/joe-manchin-senate-climate-tax.html?smid=tw-share”>As Joe Manchin Stymies Climate Plan, Democrats Say They’ve Had Enough</a>
NY Times – July 15
<b>A day after the West Virginia senator scuttled plans to pass a climate and tax package, many in his party blamed him for their stifled ambitions.</b>
Manchin Dangles Hopes of a Future Compromise. Democrats Revolt.
NY Times – July 15
IMO, Joe Manchin has (almost single handedly) derailed the Biden presidency.
Repeating myself:
Manchin’s ‘thinking about what to do’ is thinking about how to build some plausible excuse for doing what he is going to do. His ‘it’s inflationary because it’s not paid for because I won’t increase taxes on the rich’ sails right over the media’s head every time.
Last night saw it fly over David Brooks’ head.
Ken:
The repeat is well worth doing.
Did Joe Manchin really just cripple the Biden presidency?
Twitter – David Brooks – July 15
and make a second Trump term much more likely? Really???
It’s Joe Manchin’s America
The Atlantic – July 15
That’s certainly true. I find it a little ironic, however, that people making this complaint don’t find it appropriate to blame the Republicans as well. They simply will not participate in responsible governing.
That is because people understand the Republicans have no interest in governing much less doing anything that might help someone. Manchin likes to pretend he is willing to negotiate while pulling the football away when his demands are met.
One of the myriad of causes for climate complacency in the U.S. is the constant drum beat and continual reinforcement of the 2° metric. “We are struggling to keep the increase in temperature under 2°” Repeated endlessly it is ingrained in the debate. Most Americans know this yet many just shrug. “What’s the big deal. 2° isn’t much of anything” The scientific community enthusiastically repeats the mantra, secretly thrilled that the Ludites in the U.S. are using a rational system of units for a change. But the average American doesn’t have a clue what a degree Centigrade is! That it is 2 and a half times the size of an American degree. That 2° is now 5° on the thermometer that matters. Ask the average American if he can notice the difference between 75° and 80° or between 85° and 90° and they will tell you, of course they can. But whenever the topic is discussed by the media or any figures of authority we are all suddenly belatedly on the metric system. But only for this one topic. Weird. And weirdly beneficial for those opposed to climate action.
It is quite possible we are already past the point of no return.
Many of us believe we need to go down fighting, regardless.
SW
Your point is well made. I believe you mean 2 degrees Centigrade is equal to ~3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. C to F
It still is bad.
Math a problem?
Compare the range between freezing and boiling water in each.
(212 – 32) / (100 – 0) = 9/5 = 1.8
Of course, then math really is a problem with regards to climate chaos, but not because of F to C temperature conversion. The problem is heat energy which is absorbed into our planetary climate system as increases in average temperature much less than the energy that it takes to melt ice and evaporate water. Heat is measured in calories or joules. Most people think of calories in terms of Big Macs though. A joule is 4.184 calories. Whether measured in calories or joules or simply ignored, then all that extra heat energy can pack some real power in our weather.
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth111/node/841
Latent Heat and Freezing and Boiling Points
Latent Heat and Freezing and Boiling Points
A calorie is the amount of heat it takes to raise the temperature of 1 gram (0.001 liters) of pure water 1 degree C at sea level. It takes 100 calories to heat 1 g. water from 0˚, the freezing point of water, to 100˚ C, the boiling point. However, 540 calories of energy are required to convert that 1 g of water at 100˚ C to 1 g of water vapor at 100˚ C. This is called the latent heat of vaporization. On the other hand, you would have to remove 80 calories from 1 g of pure water at the freezing point, 0˚ C, to convert it to 1 g of ice at 0˚ C. This is called the latent heat of fusion…
FWIW…
The “calorie” we refer to in food is actually a kilocalorie. One kilocalorie is the same as one (1) Calorie (uppercase C). A kilocalorie is the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one kilogram of water one degree Celsius.
1 joule equals 0.000239006 kilocalories.
BTW…
It follows that one calorie (or 4.2 joules) will raise the temp of one gram of H20 one degree Celsius (at standard ‘sea level’ air pressure)
Fred,
Did not know that, but I rarely worry about calories. Since forced into retirement back in June 2015, getting away from that high paying sedentary life has solved my former problem of obesity without dieting.
OTOH, these high energy weather systems have been kicking my butt more each year. We have had late, but longer, cooler winters and longer, cooler springs, that sometime in July each year flip a switch over to persistent heat and storminess. I know the difference between climate and weather, but persistent, consistent changes in weather patterns is climate.
A further problem increasing global warming is that while (polar) ice (which is shrinking) reflects sunlight out of the atmosphere (to the extent it is not absorbed by green-house gases on the way out), sea water (which covers 70% of the planet (now) absorbs much sunlight and is heated by it. But you all know this.
Fred,
Yes sir.
Furthermore the shrinking polar ice melts at an even faster rate as the polar regions continue to warm, but the shrinking polar ice eventually will produce less fresh water ice melt to fuel the thermohaline circulation since there will be far less ice remaining to melt. So, temperate climate regions will become less temperate without the latitudinal migration of cold and warm waters.
Also, the warming of the deep ocean heat sinks is already having a profound influence on the cycles of the ENSO and NAO.
As Heat Waves Sweep Europe, Britain Braces for Record Temperatures
NY Times – July 16
This is a map from the Guardian. It shows that many parts of the US have already hit the avg temp critical point. It is not good. Crooks and Liars has a weekly round up of climate disasters happening around the world.
Well, here is a link that has the map:
A third of Americans are already facing above-average warming | Climate crisis | The Guardian
The map is interactive showing the location of each square and the average rise.
So if Manchin or Sinema withdraws from the Democratic caucus, Mitch McConnel takes over for Schumer. I dearly hope the Dems can elect enough Senators in November that we can tell Manchin and Sinema to go to hell but the Dems sure can not do that now. As to climate change I think three things: first it is really not possible to underestimate the intellectual ability of the American public. Quite apart from education, most Americans lead their lives based on emotion and superstition. Second, as Keynes put it “in the long run we are all dead”. Given the decided lack of altruism— even toward our children and grandchildren— it is no surprise that a lot of people are more concerned about cheap gasoline than the idea that the planet may be uninhabitable shortly after they die. Third, and this is my illiberal thought, I think it is human hubris to think that we have much control at this point over the planet becoming uninhabitable— think Soylent Green. That being said, I do agree that when you are in a hole you should stop digging— a sentiment which does not appear to be shared by most Americans see one and two above.
Alas, Joe Manchin is here to remind us that we are all in the global-warming toaster together, so we may as well enjoy our houseboats and Maseratis while we can, and trust in god to do what’s right. Party on, dudes! Tempus fugit!
Manchin’s ride: Maserati Levante
As the planet cooks…
NY Times — July 17
Transitions normally occur from a current state to one people find superior. People have their expectations and a big transition is likely to misfire for various specific reasons if a key perception among those expected to transition is they should lower those expectations. If it takes even another decade to get more and better technology and a reasonable consensus on how to make the transition, the better. Manchin is “right” if you interpret that his message is that there just is no consensus at all over the current legislative approach. Way too many Americans view the real plan as to impoverish their families while the John Kerrys and Barack Obamas (feel free to add whatever rich Republicans you want) use as much energy as ever. Better to make continuous progress starting in 2030 than so enrage people that they don’t want to hear about until 2040.
It’s less chaotic at least with graphs, although just as bleak since the trend lines are all heading in the wrong directions.
https://www.climate.gov/climatedashboard