Your Subsidy Expires? What You Will Pay for Healthcare Insurance

As is typical, Charles Gaba at ACA has the answers to the question. Charles does a lot more of this type of analysis such as the Healthcare’s Three – Legged Stool, ACA Enrollment, Risk Pools, etc. All three of these are at Angry Bear.

I am not sure why Michigan state and federal legislators are not knocking on his door for direction on healthcare. By that comment, I am not talking about commercial insurance exclusively.

Ok, the question is what will people be paying for healthcare if the subsidies go away. Some will continue to pay nothing as they can not afford it. Others may drop back to less coverage. It does not look like Democrats are making much of an effort to save this legislation. And Joe Manchin? From Business Insider:

Manchin had voiced support for the subsidies in February. But the conservative Democrat was noncommittal when Insider asked him twice earlier this month (May) about his current position. He has signaled some openness to cutting a deal on a smaller Democrat-only spending bill focusing on reducing the federal deficit and stepping up taxes on the richest Americans.

Maybe Joe can get on the upper deck of his houseboat “Almost Heaven” and talk down to the West Virginia citizens explaining why he will not be supporting healthcare subsidies? If nothing is worked out West Virginia will see the largest increase in premiums (Table 2 Page 4, FamiliesUSA).

STATE BY STATE: How much more will YOU pay if #AmRescuePlan subsidies AREN’T extended? | ACA Signups, Charles Gaba

Mid-March, Charles Gaba posted an analysis giving a general idea of how much more various households will have to pay in health insurance premiums. Increases due to financial subsidies provided by the American Rescue Plan (ARP) expiring at the end of this year.

Mid-April, here is what the subsidy tables look like under the ACA itself and also the American Rescue Plan. The premium caps are the maximum percent of household income which a household has to pay for the benchmark Silver plan at various income ranges:

Charles establishes four different scenarios: A single 26-year old adult; a single 50-year old adult; a “Nuclear Family” of four; and an older couple waiting for retirement.

A young adult would be paying as much as $1,500 more per year. The middle-aged adult would be paying up to $3,200 more. The family of four would be paying up to $7,300 more. And the 60-year old couple could potentially be looking at as much as a jaw-dropping $17,000/year premium increase. This is assuming the expanded ARP subsidies are not extended beyond December 31, 2022.

With the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) in support, Urban Institute’s in-depth analysis supplies estimates of how many currently insured Americans are likely to lose healthcare coverage. The study was by age, state, income bracket and other demographics. FamiliesUSA studying the same demographics also found similar results.

The chart* below is detailing the estimated change in Individual (nongroup) Market enrollment by state for 2023 if the ARP subsidies expire or continue.

*Chart Data from Urban Institute/RWJF and complied by Charles Gaba ACA Signups.

As detailed by *Families USA (below), West Virginia citizens would experience the greatest harm from the loss of subsidies.

*Detailed chart taken from (

Senator Machin has issues with subsidies to people for children and for healthcare.

How much more will YOU pay if #AmRescuePlan subsidies AREN’T extended? | ACA Signups, Charles Gaba

What if the American Rescue Plan Act Premium Tax Credits Expire – RWJF

COV-2022-75_Expiring-APTCs-1.pdf ( Stan Dorn

Joe Manchin leans over deck of his yacht to tell protesters why he’ll oppose funding healthcare expansion | The Independent