The military standoff, which had dragged Wall Street lower in recent days, showed signs of de-escalating, easing concerns over disruptions of global energy supplies.
Global stocks climbed on Tuesday after Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that the country would pull back from its military standoff in Ukraine, easing concerns over disruptions in global energy supplies.
The Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 1.2 percent, while Germany’s DAX index rose 1.6 percent and the CAC 40, the benchmark index in France, was up 1.2 percent.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 1 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.5 percent. …
Crude oil futures fell sharply on Tuesday after Russia’s announcement. Brent crude fell 3.2 percent to $93.38, and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was down nearly 4 percent to $91.90.
More than a third of the natural gas in Europe comes from Russia. Any disruption to the fuel supply could send shockwaves across the continent.
Europe relies on Russia’s natural gas to help heat millions of homes, generate electricity and power factories. With Russian troops massed along Ukraine’s border, the continent’s heavy dependence on Russia is limiting its diplomatic options and threatening to throw its energy supplies into turmoil. …
If the flow of gas is interrupted, either as collateral damage from warfare or as a negotiating tactic by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, experts worry that already high prices in a constantly shifting global market could skyrocket. Businesses may be forced to temporarily close, and if cutoffs persist, households already facing higher utility bills this winter could feel even more pain.
Analysts and industry executives are skeptical that Mr. Putin would cut off gas, in part because of how important gas exports are to his country’s economy. But the tensions come at a pivotal time for many European nations that have turned to natural gas to help them bridge their transitions from fossil fuels to wind, solar and other cleaner sources.
Diplomatic proposals to counter Russia’s buildup center on sanctions that could limit energy trade. That could throw billions in investments and oil and gas contracts into jeopardy, especially for countries, including Germany and Italy, that rely on Russian gas more than others. …
If the flow of gas is interrupted, either as collateral damage from warfare or as a negotiating tactic by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, experts worry that already high prices in a constantly shifting global market could skyrocket. Businesses may be forced to temporarily close, and if cutoffs persist, households already facing higher utility bills this winter could feel even more pain.
Analysts and industry executives are skeptical that Mr. Putin would cut off gas, in part because of how important gas exports are to his country’s economy. But the tensions come at a pivotal time for many European nations that have turned to natural gas to help them bridge their transitions from fossil fuels to wind, solar and other cleaner sources.
Diplomatic proposals to counter Russia’s buildup center on sanctions that could limit energy trade. That could throw billions in investments and oil and gas contracts into jeopardy, especially for countries, including Germany and Italy, that rely on Russian gas more than others. …
Putin — and a lot of Russians I presume — long for the days when Russia was a great power — some great Power. An all time crackpot economic system — an all time horrible police state (never forget J.S. Stalin at its worst) — and what little economic surplus they could eke out (compared to Western countries) spent on a military that looked like it was getting ready to fend off Mars attacks.
180 armored divisions — 1st category, 75% active, 25% reserve, ready in a week, 2nd category, 50%/50%, ready in a month, 3rd category, 25%/75%, ready in a month. Components of 90 divisions, active, ready to go (!) — could man 50,000 tanks in the field. 20,000 jet fighters, 300 plus submarines (mostly conventional).
I guess this latter is what creates the mirage of “great power” in his mind. Forgetting the tiny, imperfect base of that power, he only remembers the crazily over expanded (unneeded) product of that power — in his autocratic ignorance.
Instead of conceiving of Ukraine, Libya, or Syria as exotic, far-away conflict zones disconnected from Americans’ daily life, what if we looked at them as the result of America’s abrupt withdrawal from its empire and the ever-increasing virulence of domestic American partisanship? These interconnections are all part of what I term the era of global enduring disorder, in which America’s hegemonic global leadership has been replaced by collective action failure among the Western allies and a desire by key players like Russia and China to promote disorder rather than alternative forms of order.
American domestic dysfunction only emboldens our adversaries. It’s not hard to imagine that in 2024, things could get even worse. Imagine a virulently contested election, with various states’ secretaries of state disagreeing with the media’s reporting of the results or refusing to certify the victorious electors. Who knows what would happen then? Would various American allies take different sides? Independent of how a contentious 2024 scenario actually plays out, with Americans absorbed in internal strife, Russia’s Vladimir Putin could push the United States out of our traditional interests in Eastern Europe, while the Chinese might seize Taiwan. …
(Aren’t ‘traditional US interests’ much more in Western Europe?)
…
Today, now that we are barely performing our role as global “order provider” and hegemon, it is more apparent than ever how truly irreplaceable that role is. Coalitions without a clear leader struggle to agree upon collective actions, as a multiplicity of voices at the table causes hesitation and tugs-of-war. The ongoing Ukraine episode has made this clear, revealing that the new German leadership is gun-shy, Brexit has decreased the salience of an already disunited European Union, and many major American political figures no longer feel a strong attachment to either NATO or America’s role as a provider of global order.
For President Biden to most effectively deter Putin, he needs a coherent Western bloc and a united home front. In 2022, that alignment simply doesn’t exist, and Putin knows it. By late 2024, it is likely to be a whole lot worse.
Traditionally, from Truman to Reagan, foreign policy was far more likely than domestic issues to create cross-party alliances. No longer. From George W. Bush to the present, our infighting has subordinated foreign policy calculations to domestic optics. For example, we are currently on the verge of having contradictory Republican and Democratic foreign policies toward that previously most bipartisan of issues: Israel-Palestine.
It should be manifestly clear that we can’t have separate Republican and Democratic approaches toward Ukraine. Yet Donald Trump tried to create his own approach with his infamous phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky threatening to withhold military aid if he didn’t get dirt on Joe Biden. …
The truckers’ protest in Ottawa is the latest barrage from the world’s disaffected in the revolt that found expression in the 2016 election of Donald Trump, the 2017 Unite the Right march on Charlottesville, the rise of QAnon, and the Jan. 6 insurrection in the halls of Congress.
One thing that stands out in the Canadian truckers’ protests against vaccination requirements specifically and the Trudeau government generally is the strong support they are getting from conservative political leaders and media figures in this country.
“We want those great Canadian truckers to know that we are with them all the way,” Trump told rally-goers in Conroe, Texas on Jan. 29.
“I see they have Trump signs all over the place and I’m proud that they do,” he added. …
In “Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party,” by Shanker Satyanath of N.Y.U., Nico Voigtländer of U.C.L.A. and Hans-Joachim Voth of the University of Zurich offer a counterintuitive perspective on the spread of right-wing organizing in Canada, Hungary, Brazil, India, Poland, Austria and in the United States. …
The truckers’ protest in Ottawa is the latest barrage from the world’s disaffected in the revolt that found expression in the 2016 election of Donald Trump, the 2017 Unite the Right march on Charlottesville, the rise of QAnon, and the Jan. 6 insurrection in the halls of Congress. One thing that stands out in the Canadian truckers’ protests against vaccination requirements specifically and the Trudeau government generally is the strong support they are getting from conservative political leaders and media figures in this country. “We want those great Canadian truckers to know that we are with them all the way,” Trump told rally-goers in Conroe, Texas on Jan. 29. “I see they have Trump signs all over the place and I’m proud that they do,” he added. …
In “Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party,” by Shanker Satyanath of N.Y.U., Nico Voigtländer of U.C.L.A. and Hans-Joachim Voth of the University of Zurich offer a counterintuitive perspective on the spread of right-wing organizing in Canada, Hungary, Brazil, India, Poland, Austria and in the United States. …
Stocks rebound after Russia says it will withdraw some troops from Ukraine’s border
NY Times – Feb 15
4,455.74
+54.07(+1.23%)
34,932.24
+366.07(+1.06%)
14,017.51
+226.59(+1.64%)
4,417.25
-57.76(-1.29%)
34,502.44
-431.83(-1.24%)
13,902.44
-221.66(-1.57%)
How a Ukraine Conflict Could Reshape Europe’s Reliance on Natural Gas from Russia
NY Times – Feb 15
Putin — and a lot of Russians I presume — long for the days when Russia was a great power — some great Power. An all time crackpot economic system — an all time horrible police state (never forget J.S. Stalin at its worst) — and what little economic surplus they could eke out (compared to Western countries) spent on a military that looked like it was getting ready to fend off Mars attacks.
180 armored divisions — 1st category, 75% active, 25% reserve, ready in a week, 2nd category, 50%/50%, ready in a month, 3rd category, 25%/75%, ready in a month. Components of 90 divisions, active, ready to go (!) — could man 50,000 tanks in the field. 20,000 jet fighters, 300 plus submarines (mostly conventional).
I guess this latter is what creates the mirage of “great power” in his mind. Forgetting the tiny, imperfect base of that power, he only remembers the crazily over expanded (unneeded) product of that power — in his autocratic ignorance.
Bring on the Slim Whitman sound trucks!
When the US shrinks from the stage, things fall apart
Boston Globe – Feb 16
(Aren’t ‘traditional US interests’ much more in Western Europe?)
There’s a Reason Trump Loves the Truckers
NY Times – Feb 16
There’s a Reason Trump Loves the Truckers
NY Times – Feb 16
The truckers’ protest in Ottawa is the latest barrage from the world’s disaffected in the revolt that found expression in the 2016 election of Donald Trump, the 2017 Unite the Right march on Charlottesville, the rise of QAnon, and the Jan. 6 insurrection in the halls of Congress. One thing that stands out in the Canadian truckers’ protests against vaccination requirements specifically and the Trudeau government generally is the strong support they are getting from conservative political leaders and media figures in this country. “We want those great Canadian truckers to know that we are with them all the way,” Trump told rally-goers in Conroe, Texas on Jan. 29. “I see they have Trump signs all over the place and I’m proud that they do,” he added. …
In “Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party,” by Shanker Satyanath of N.Y.U., Nico Voigtländer of U.C.L.A. and Hans-Joachim Voth of the University of Zurich offer a counterintuitive perspective on the spread of right-wing organizing in Canada, Hungary, Brazil, India, Poland, Austria and in the United States. …
‘Bowling for Fascism’ (PDF – 56 pages)
It turns out that paper has been around for <a href=”https://www.nber.org/papers/w19201″>awhile.</a>
ISSUE DATE July 2013
REVISION DATE June 2015
Bowling for Fascism
NBER – Issued July 2013, Revised June 2015
More recently, from 2017:
Bowling for Fascism: Exploring the Dark Side of Social Capital
UCLA Anderson Review