An Urgent Warning about Omicron’s Exponential Spread
A brief introduction, not to New Deal democrat, but to the subject matter. An extremely contagious new Covid virus is emerging globally and in the US. Those who have resisted inoculations and other preventative measures may find themselves particularly vulnerable. Reviewing the graphs presented, this virus will rapidly infect the US. This Covid Virus will test the ability of people’s resistance.
Coronavirus dashboard: An Urgent Warning about Omicron’s Exponential Spread, New Deal democrat
Two Days Ago. A graph comparing the growth in Omicron vs. Delta cases in London:
Shocking, isn’t it?
Just One Day Later. Now here is the same data, updated yesterday:
Do I have your attention? In one day, the number of Omicron cases literally went through the top of the previous graph.
Dr. Trevor Bedford, a geneticist who was the first to demonstrate that there was community spread of Covid-19 in the US back in late February 2020, is now tracking the daily exponential growth of Omicron, with a 10 day lag because that is how long it takes for reliable testing data to be accumulated. Here are his current graph of 5 countries including South Africa, the UK, and the US:
Tracking Across Five Countries Including the US :
Depending on the country, the number of Omicron cases is doubling every 2 to 3 days.
As of 10 days ago, he estimates about 1000 cases per day in the US were Omicron. If we use 3 days as the doubling time, that is close to 10,000 cases today.
Projecting that rate of growth forward, here is what we get:
– about 100,000 cases a day by December 27
– 1 million cases a day by January 6
-10 million cases a day by January 16.
This in a health system where many hospitals have already reached their limit.
Will it get that bad? Exponential growth keeps going until, well, it doesn’t (see, e.g., Delta during July and August, peaking quickly just before Labor Day).
In that regard, in South Africa, Omicron May have peaked a few days ago. A 1-figure Gauteng update, bringing in data through Wednesday 15/12 (PCR only; by date of collection).
If Delta burned through the dry tinder in about 2 to 3 months, in South Africa Omicron sped that up to about 30 to 45 days.
In South Africa, cases went from 400 to 24,000 in 4 weeks, an 60-fold increase.
Two other countries with major Omicron spread, Denmark and Norway, went from 400 cases each to 8000 and 4000, respectively, a 20-fold and 10-fold increase. Interestingly (although I won’t bother with the graph, in Norway cases seem to have peaked in the last few days after 12 weeks of increase). The good news is, if South Africa and Norway are the templates, then like Delta there is a certain subset of the population that is uniquely susceptible, and once Omicron infects those people, it runs out of fuel.
Consistent with, and maybe because of this, here is Dr. Andy Slavitt:
“We’re in store for a quick, fast-spreading, and hopefully soon-to-be-over wave that’s going to overwhelm hospitals. All of us who take advantage of the science will be in good shape. For the country as a whole, this is going to be a rough January.”
As cases rise, when could they peak? He says: “I talked to a dozen scientists or so in the last couple of days and the consensus seems to be forming around the third week in January.”In the US, the post-Delta trough was about 75,000 cases per day about 6 weeks ago. A 10-fold increase like Norway would be 750,000 cases per day. A 50-fold increase, like South Africa, would be 3,750,000 cases per day.
Since the consensus spoken of by Dr. Slavitt is late in January, that appears to be consistent with the worst-case scenario.
While cases in the South, West, and Midwest are generally still much better than they were one year ago at this point:
In the Northeast, where there is evidence Omicron is already a significant share of total infections, cases are already close to their all-time daily highs, and look to exceed those numbers by Monday or Tuesday:
I am afraid this is what the US as a whole is looking at within a week or two, if not within days.
If the above is true, at some point between now and New Year’s Day there is going to be a March 2020 style nearly instant crash in public and economic activity.
Please use extra caution, even if you are fully vaccinated and boostered. Stay safe!
posted these on another thread earlier, but worth repeating here…
Cleveland Clinic estimates that half its positive COVID-19 tests are due to omicron (WOIO) – The Cleveland Clinic said late Friday morning that the hospital system is seeing the number of omicron COVID-19 cases “increase greatly.” According to figures provided by Cleveland Clinic’s corporate communications project manager Halle Bishop, the hospital system is conducting approximately 3,000 tests a day in a 24-hour period. Around 1,000 of those tests usually return positive samples. “… we estimate half of those positive samples are due to Omicron. The daily count of laboratory-confirmed cases is now double what it was one week ago.” The daily count of laboratory-confirmed omicron cases is double what it was a week ago, according to the Cleveland Clinic. “We are learning this variant is more transmissible, and we are seeing evidence of this by the increased spread in our community,” Bishop said in a statement on Friday. “Today, we expect to surpass the highest number positive samples detected in a single day since the start of the pandemic.” The Cleveland Clinic said approximately 80% of COVID-19 hospitalizations involve unvaccinated individuals.
Omicron infects 70 times faster than previous COVID strains: study –— A new study says that while the COVID-19 omicron variant infects the human body 70 times faster than previous coronavirus strains, the infections appear to be less severe. Researchers from the University of Hong Kong’s LKS Faculty of Medicine found that after 24 hours of infection, the omicron variant multiplied in the human bronchus 70 times faster than the delta variant and original coronavirus strain.
NB: Cleveland / Cuyahoga County has been an epicenter of Delta infection, with over 1000 new cases per day; & with nearby counties, including mine, accounts for over a third of new Ohio infections, which have been treading above 10K in recent days..
It’s time for nuclear bombs to rain on South Africa for what they have done to us.
That country has fostered the creation of two immune-evasive COVID variants so far. South Africa has become an existential threat to the species and we should not–cannot–tolerate sharing our planet with them any more.
Yep. They’ve been sapping our precious bodily fluids:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1KvgtEnABY
Hey Joel
Got a new-used 26 inch screen graphics Mac computer. New to it workings. Speaker is in it too and just about woke the house up. Not saying this person is good or not. But if we are all the same we are going to get pretty boring.Lets see where it goes. Got anything to say on the Omicron version of Covid? Maybe a flash in the pan from what I am reading. Looking like Michigan Republicans are blowing the state up. Down here in AZ, it is not much better either.
New posts?
Hi Run,
I’ve only ever used Apple products, going back to when I wrote my dissertation on an Apple II using a daisy wheel printer and Wordstar software.
Everything I’ve seen about Omicron is that it is far more contagious than Delta or the the original COVID-19, but apparently less severe. Cases are up nationally, but the hospitals are filling up mainly with the unvaccinated. So Omicron may be better than Delta or the original COVID-19 at infecting vaccinated people, but the current vaccines still seem to be protective, even more so than previous infection.
I’m looking for something new to say on COVID, but I need more data.
As Covid Surges, Experts Say US Booster Effort Is Far Behind
Scientists Are Racing to Gauge the Threat of Omicron
i wonder if it’s safe to ask a question.
is it possible that we are relying too much on the vaccines. don’t shout. i am not questioning the value of the vaccine, i am questioning abandoning ‘social distancing and masks.
i was wondering if we could correlate the high rates of infection in other countries with anti-vax propaganda?
do we know if vaccinated people, even with lower death rates, can, since we hear that they can still catch the disease, still transmit it to others?
Coberly,
“… i am questioning abandoning ‘social distancing and masks…”
Fred already did a fine job of answering your question. So, I just want to add that as Joel pointed out on the 12.20 “Cringeworthy” thread, that all this mutant ninja virus stuff was inevitable for so long as we cannot wrap Covid-19 up in box and put it away. Instead we are giving Covid-19 a laboratory full of petri dishes in which to replicate into nouveau novels.
I have never given up masks and social distancing since the beginning and got each pass of Pfizer early in the availability, but just a couple weeks ahead of my ten years younger wife. I have caved a little for the in-laws, but not before they were also vaccinated. My wife and her family just like social gatherings a lot more than I have since I moved on from bars and chasing skirts. We were raised on opposite ends of the “middle class,” hers actually middle class and mine just median income, a.k.a., lower middle class. Former jocks and cheerleaders also need a bit of the limelight just to know that they are alive or believe that they are relevant. The poor are needy in economic terms, but others are needy in entirely different terms.
(Second attempt at posting this.)
Scientists Are Racing to Gauge the Threat of Omicron
Dobbs
if this is a reply to me it does not address the questions i asked. It answers a question i did not ask. it repeats what was said in the article … which i do not dispute.
And it was not posted in response to your somewhat odd query.
funny, my somewhat odd query does not seem odd to me at all.
i will mention… i think it was Azimov who said the most thrilling words to come out of a science laboratory were not “eureka!” but “that’s odd.”
Omicron rewrites the COVID plan for 2022
Already, countries are reverting to measures used earlier in the pandemic: restricting travel, reimposing mask requirements, advising against large gatherings for the winter holidays. While it is not quite back to square one, much more of the world will need to be vaccinated or exposed to COVID to get past the worst of the pandemic, disease experts told Reuters. …
Dobbs
your second comment appeared after i posted my reply to first. it appears to answer at least some of my question(s) above, but not so directly that i can safely draw any conclusion.
the conclusion i am tempted to draw is that Omicron, though less lethal to vaccinated people, can spread from a vaccinated person to other people, vaccinated or not. this suggests to me that distancing may still be necessary to limit the spread. or we resign ourselves to unlimited spread and vaccinate “only” to prevent serious illness. prevening serious disease is still good policy, but i don’t at this time see how those who are not vaccinated isare more of a threat to those who are vaccinated.
it is VERY possible that I am just failing to understand the known reality. but if i am right so far, it suggests to me we still need distancing and masks, unless the infection rate is so high even distancing and masks will fail in the long run… the “peak” in the infection rates suggests to me…without knowing better…that this is not the case.
For some reason, posting on this thread is somewhat screwed up today.
More’ features’ being added perhaps?
It’s Asimov, BTW.
And it was Arthur C. Clarke who said
In 1962, in his book “Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry into the Limits of the Possible”, … “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”.
(which is always relevant these days, if not entirely hopeful.)
if i ever need to spell asimov again i’ll be sure to remember that.
re posting is screwed up
might be because i am posting from a computer that does not let me read what i am writing behind the ads.
also the “posting by conversation” does not work so well when there are many contributors to one “conversation” not posting one-at-a-time.
i like “post in order received” because it’s easier for me to look back far enough to find post i am responding to than it is to look back to find a post embedded in a part of the conversation that took place days or hours ago. and try to insert my comment among other comments already posted.
There may be idiots in the US who are suggesting again that we give up on masks & social distancing. At least one Senator says to drink mouthwash, because that should ‘do the trick’. The link I posted from Reuters says that in Europe there is supposed to be an immediate return to mask use & social distancing.
in europe.
not so much in USA, from what i have been hearing.
yes, the idiots and criminally irresponsible are still out there.
You recall Trump’s last covid advisor, the wacko radiologist with no infectious disease experience who insisted that the best way to deal with covid was to NOT do masking or social distancing, just get the disease as soon as possible, with any luck surviving. This was how to achieve ‘herd immunity’. People like this are still around, evidently.
Scientists Are Racing to Gauge the Threat of Omicron
well, let’s see what i can make of that”
vaccines are still necessary, which i do not question, apparently because the unvaccinated who get infected get sick enough to overwhelm hospitals…leading to higher death rates among those unvaccinated. and to more infections among the vaccinated (?) staff.
okay so far. but do the unvaccinated who get seriously ill represent an increased risk of serious illness to the vaccinated? and if failing to enforce social distancing and mask wearing contributiong to the high rates of infection?
sorry for the typos. is there a vaccine for that?
Something that often goes missing in any discussion of vaccination and COVID-19 is the role of viral infections in hosting the next variants. In addition to attenuating the seriousness of infection and the efficiency of transmission, vaccination reduces the total pool of viruses and thereby reduces the probability that a more infectious and/or virulent variant will emerge.
Comments were made early on about Omicron appearing in South Africa, where vaccination rates have been low, and incidence of HIV remains high, and those factors supposedly contributed to the Omicron mutation. It figures anyway that a large presence of covid for whatever reason will probably lead to mutations appearing more frequently.
@Fred,
The speculation I read is that Omicron may have emerged from an immunocompromised population. HIV/AIDS prevalence rate there is ca. 20%. Thus, more cycles of replication/patient. Since replication itself is a potent mutagen, this creates a large pool of variants on which selection can operate.
joel
your reply to fred partly answers my question about your first sentence in earlier comment. keep up the good work.
joel
but there is this:
we already have a variant that can infect vaccinated people as well as unvaccinated, and those people, vaccinated and unvaccinated, can further infect more people.
that this variant does not cause as serious illness or death in vaccinated people just means that it will stay around to infect more and more people, creating an infinite pool of virus carriers, out of which new variants, perhaps more deadly, may appear.
Dobbs
yes, i thini my have mentioned that possibility early when the serious people were telling us to let gramma die and go out and get infected to produce herd immunity.
https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/blog_vaccination_mortality-2.jpg
Joel
I think i understand the last sentence. Haven’t heard any actual numbers yet.
I don’t think I understood the first sentence. Sounds interesting though.
Most of the World’s Vaccines Likely Won’t Prevent Infection From Omicron
why don’t we just force them?
[to all get vaccinated.]
force America first?
but wait, what about those who want to force America NOT to get vaccinated or socially distance or wear masks?
after all, force works. and it’s traditional.
Coberly,
Exactly! We can always regret our choice later like we did for slavery, the Trail of Tears, and the Japanese internment, which will make everything just fine.
Coberly,
To be clear mandates are not slavery, etc.; rather regret solves nothing. We have a trust shortfall which needs clarity to recover, something that we have lost to mediocre education, poor federal policy choices, the politics of anger, and polarizing politicized private media.
Ron
glad it’s you. some people don’t get irony, or sarcasm.
a rather worrying sentence in today’s on line new york times article about human cost of droe war. “of course there are always civilian casualties in war…” so that makes it okay?
as for mediocre education: education is always somewhat mediocre subjct to human limitations and tastes. what we have here is deliberate politically driven miseducation…or, apparently, non-education in favor of “computer education.” gotta train the new worker” being the latest dominant paradigm, and “train them using computers” being the clevermost solution. thus bypassing any possibility of human interaction and the unanticipated consequences of that.
How Bad is Omicron
Nature journal – Dec 2 – PDF
oh? it’s complicated? who knew?
About this data
Moderna says its booster significantly raises the level of antibodies to thwart Omicron.
Ron
I was not asking a question about distancing. I was questioning America’s abandonment of distancing.
I don’t think Dobbs answered that..he merely cited a reference that other countries were re-establishing distancing (and masks). So far America is passing laws against distancing and masks, while mandating (not forcing) vaccinations that do not prevent infection or transmission (though they do reduce death rate) thus assuring an infinite supply of carriers and walking petri dishes for new variants (not that there is anything we can do about that now)
Please note that this is not an argument against vaccination
My mother thought we were “lower middle class.” I am not so sure. Certainly we had limited money, but as far as I could tell…and i neither thought about it then, nor suffer from much pride now…we were all considerably above middle class in terms of independent thinking and freedom from the idols of the mob. [mobs: lower, middle, and upper class.] I was a little surprised when I finally got into college and found the quality of thinking no different from what it was in my working class grade school.
As noted in here somewhere, Trump lately admitted to receiving a booster shot (as did interviewer Bill O’Reilly). The audience booed & booed. Trump took some pride that vaccines were developed during his term, that tens of millions were saved because of them, but no one should feel pressured into them, or the boosters. He seems to feel some pride that so many are with him on this matter (aside from the fact that he’s been fully vaccinnated, and had other anti-Covid drugs as well.)