(Dan here…originally published 12:11 a.m. Nov. 3. We now know Youngkin won the Virginia governer’s race)
I am posting before the election results of Nov. 2, 2021, are fully in, but it looks that the GOP candidates will win in Virginia, where Biden beat Trump by 10 points a year ago for the statewide races, with GOP making gains in the House of Delegates that may switch its control to them, although that remains more up in the air. Also in New Jersey, where it was presumed that the Dem incumbent would easily win, the race is too close to call and he might lose. In short, the GOP is doing very well.
Ironically, the stock market has hit new all-time highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial average crossing the 36,000 milestone to reach 36,052. This was the mark that in 1999 in a famous book by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett proclaimed would be reached within a year or so, that time being in the midst of the dot com boom that would crash the next year. So it took until now to reach it. The funny thing is that a year ago Trump forecast that if Biden won, the stock market would crash. Well, it has risen, but it has not helped the Dems. But then, we have long known that most voters really are not affected that much by it.
As it is, at least in Virginia the focus and noise have been all about rising gasoline prices, which have been rising sharply in the last two weeks. Unemployment may be down and the stock market is high, but along with all the weird shortages, all the noise is that Biden has somehow hurt the economy because of the inflation, even though looking at month to month rates, inflation is decelerating. Good chances by next year’s election inflation will be much more clearly under control, but now in Virginia, voters do not see it.
And there is also all the hysteria about critical race theory and a high school boy who also in the last two weeks was found guilty in Northern Virginia of sexually assaulting two different girls in girls’ bathrooms in two different high schools while wearing a skirt. Supposedly there has been something like a switch of 39% by white women from Dems to GOP in this race from 2020.
At this point I still hope that the VA House of Delegates might still hold for the Dems, although I am not optimistic, and that Dem Murphy in New Jersey wins, maybe more likely. At least in VA, the State Senate remains in Dem control as it was not up for reelection.