Coronavirus dashboard for November 2: the winter wave has begun
Coronavirus dashboard for November 2: the winter wave has begun
The Delta decline is probably over. Nationwide US cases are up 4000/day from one week ago. The Northeast and South census regions still show a decline, but West and Midwest regions show increases:
One week ago only 3 States were in the “increasing” category. Now the increasing trend States include: NJ, AL, CA, NV, AZ, CO, NM, ND, SD, MI, MN, IA, and NE. There are also slight increases in NY, RI, IN, and WI.
Some States still show declines: AK, VT, NH, PA, CT, WV, KY, DE, NC, SC, AR, FL, GA, MT, OK, TX, and WY.
The declines are almost all in the warmest States + those with the most recent outbreaks. The increases are with few exceptions in the colder States.
On the plus side, deaths are down 35% from the Delta peak into the middle of the “normal” range for this pandemic:
The winter wave has almost certainly begun.
But as of yesterday, 80% of all US adults had at least one shot, and later this week we will probably cross the threshold of 70% of all US adults completely vaccinated. Including those age 12 and up the respective numbers are 78% and 68%. We can expect lots of younger school-age children to have at least one shot before Thanksgiving, and be fully vaccinated by Christmas.
Plus, on average (with plenty of variation) being infected recently almost certainly conveys some resistance to reinfection – and in the past 4 months, about 4% of all Americans had *confirmed* cases, most likely meaning that close to 10% were *actually* infected.
Put that together, and there are significantly fewer people susceptible to infection at present than there were 4 or 12 months ago, so I strongly suspect this winter’s wave will not be as bad as either last winter’s, or Delta.
Central banks around the world are dialing back their pandemic-era support
NYT: Central banks around the world are dialing back their pandemic-era support
Tangled supply chains, rising costs for raw goods and soaring consumer demand have combined to push prices rapidly higher in many wealthy countries, prodding central banks around the world to start dialing back some of the extraordinary economic support measures they put in place during the pandemic.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a plan to slow its large-scale asset purchases, a process its officials want to complete before lifting interest rates down the line.
The Bank of England is even further along: Investors expect it could raise its main interest rate as soon as Thursday. And in Canada, Australia, Norway and elsewhere, monetary authorities have also begun to dial back support or lay the groundwork for a step away from policy help.
The shift away from full-blast economic stimulus comes amid a burst in inflation that has no 21st century precedent. Price gains had been chronically weak for decades, but this year, they have rocketed above the 2 percent rate that most advanced economy central banks target, partly as government relief helped families to spend on everything from houses to furniture. …