On the downside of the Delta wave, vaccinations make all the difference
Coronavirus dashboard for September 13: on the downside of the Delta wave, vaccinations make all the difference
With each passing day, it becomes increasingly likely that the peak of the Delta wave was just before Labor Day. We’ll probably get a pop in the weekly average number tomorrow, as today’s numbers replace the Labor Day holiday numbers, but unless there is a big surprise, it appears we are into the downside of the wave.
But we are still on the upside when it comes to deaths, which probably won’t peak for another week or two.
Below are cases (solid line) and deaths (dotted line) for the past year:
The winter wave peaked at an average of 250,000 cases and 3,500 deaths/day. If that ratio exists for this wave, deaths will peak at roughly 2400/day. But at the June trough, there were 11,300 cases and 218 deaths. Cases increased over 14x to their peak. If deaths do the same, their peak will be just over 3,000/day – at some point by the end of this month.
So the next couple of weeks are going to look pretty grim as to deaths, and it’s already baked in the cake.
More evidence that we are on the downside of the wave for cases comes when we examine what is happening with the first hard-hit States, shown in bold in the graph below:
It is very clear that in all cases except for Wyoming, the wave has peaked, and in some cases, the decline is already precipitous. Wyoming is something of an exception because it never really got below 10 cases per 100,000/day, even in June.
Meanwhile, the benefit of vaccinations is extremely clear in the State-by-State evidence. Here are the 10 least vaccinated States:
These States make up the vast majority of the worst-performing States for infections during the Delta wave.
At the other end of the scale, here are the 10 most vaccinated jurisdictions:
With the exception of Hawaii (not sure what happened there), these States and Puerto Rico are the best-performing of all the US jurisdictions. Vaccinations work!
I anticipate paying particular attention to all of the northern US States in the coming several months, to see if the cooler weather increases Delta’s footprint there, and if so to contrast the extremely well vaccinated New England States with the extremely poorly vaccinated States of the northern Plains and Mountain West.
Why do I get the feeling those resisting vaccination are going to drag us down with them. Vaccines do not prevent Covid and we will still be likely get a milder version of Covid due to their obstinance.
If the vaccines do not prevent COVID, then what sense is there thinking that vaccination status “drags us down”? The benefit is clear in reduction of potential severity, but that is going to be the case whether you get it from unvaxxed person A or vaxxed person B. NDd is expecting that cases will be lower in highly vaxxed places, but I think that possibly at least some of that will be an artifact of the resulting mildness of the cases. Mildness is a good thing, no question. I expect that many contagious vaxxed people will not bother testing, since they will feel pretty well and are vaxxed. I have already seen that firsthand in July, when the hostess of an event I attended felt unwell a couple days later and her doctor, on learning she was fully vaxxed, said do not test unless symptoms got more severe. Hers did not and 8 others probably exposed never tested and 2 did: one positive. Did I pass it on that next week? No idea, but certainly possible given what I know now. There is going to be enough of all 4 possible infection combinations not to get hung up one one in particular. Isolate when ill and try to keep a distance when possible and mask when impossible. I am flying tomorrow and not worried about vax status but would like to conscientious masking from the passengers
If you wish to carry on a conversation, please employ paragraphs to state your ideas and/or points.
Run, the purebloods believe that they’re going to be hunted for their blood when the vaccinated discover that they’ve been fucked..
The unvaccinated are declaring themselves ‘Purebloods’ – Some anti-vaxxers have proclaimed themselves “Purebloods” in a campaign of biological supremacy against those who received the COVID-19 vaccine.“From now on, I refuse to be referred to as ‘unvaccinated,’” said conservative influencer Lyndsey Marie in a post last week. “I want everyone to now call me Pureblood.” Marie is most likely referring to a term more recently popularized by the “Harry Potter” series, which saw wizards and warlocks with the most magical progeny assigned as “purebloods” or “half-bloods” — as opposed to “muggles,” mere humans who practice magic.
.“In like five, 10 years, maybe less, all the people who are unvaccinated — we’re gonna be hunted,” warned TikTokker @Leeannstar23, according to a Vice News story published Wednesday. .. . We’re gonna be the antidote, because everyone else is fucked, and we’re gonna be the only ones with pure blood,” they suggested.The term is gaining steam elsewhere on social media. “Pureblood Patriots. Listen to me. The Great State of Mississippi will fight this discrimination. We welcome you all,” announced one self-appointed state spokesperson.