Coronavirus dashboard: the Delta wave starts to recede in the South, and migrates North
Coronavirus dashboard: the Delta wave starts to recede in the South, and migrates North
Ultimately, that I have to continue to post this material is depressing. At least 80% of all US adults and most teenagers should have been fully vaccinated by now, with the threat of mass outbreaks, even from Delta, retreating into the past.
So let me begin with the best graphic representation I have seen so far of where the resistance to vaccination is coming from (via Morning Consult):
Note that for all the attention the opposition of the Trumpist GOP has received, an even *greater* share (39%) of the Young Invincibles, age 18-34, are either uncertain or unwilling, and 62% have been or have plans to get vaccinated. Additionally, right behind the GOPers, 33% of Blacks are uncertain or unwilling, and only 67% have been or have plans to get vaccinated.
Further, when we look at the data longitudinally over time, we see that while a large percentage of “uncertain” Blacks have been persuaded to get the shot, only modest progress has been made both with regard to GOPers and the Young Invincibles:
Turning to the present situation, the “good” or at least less bad news is that the week over week increase in new cases continues to slow, now at “only” 6%. The increase in deaths, which lags by 3 to 4 weeks, may be showing its first signs of deceleration as well:
Even if so, during that time cases have risen by over 35%. A similar increase in deaths will give us over 1800 deaths per day by September 21, and possibly as high as 2500 or so by the end of September.
California’s case rate may have peaked in the last week, and indeed 17 States + DC show either a plateau in cases or an outright decline:
Note that all of the original hotspots in the South – MO, AR, LA, TX, MS, AL, and FL – fit into this group.
Meanwhile, 16 other States, almost all in the interior West or Midwest, plus the Carolinas and Georgia, are showing a solid uptrend in cases:
Among these, the most unvaccinated States including ND, WY, WV, and IN, and the next lowest tier, including SD, GA, SC, and OH, are included in this group.
In other words, the epicenter of the Delta outbreak, having gone through most of the dry tinder in the Deep South, is now migrating northward, especially to the least vaccinated States in that climate zone. While I continue to think that on a nationwide basis, the peak of the Delta wave is close at hand, the fact that SD in the wake of the acid test of the Sturgis rally appears *not* to have anything close to herd immunity, causes me to think that the decline in cases after Labor Day or so is likely to be short-lived, with another wave hitting as schooling resumes throughout the north, and colder weather gives rise to more indoor gatherings.
My wife’s family is from Enfield, CT, educated, white and UMC. Their dad sold industrial equipment and their mom was a public school teacher. Her four surviving siblings each voted for Trump, but all have been vaccinated for Covid-19. OTOH, until yesterday the youngest sister (just a kid in her 50’s) was coming down for labor day weekend bringing her four year old granddaughter with her and we were all going out to dinner at Mekong, a hopping busy crowded Vietnamese restaurant noted for its selection of craft beers. Then the husband of the other sister that lives here in central VA found that he had been exposed recently to someone that had Covid-19. It took a lot of convincing still, but finally our Labor Day weekend plans were cancelled to protect the four year old. The youngest sister also suffers from rheumatoid arthritis, which I am told is an immune system dysfunction. So, it is not just southerners that are either stupid or crazy.
Brother-in-law Mark tested negative for Covid-19. So, our Labor Day weekend plans are back on. Just goes to show that stupid will win out in the long run because it vastly outnumbers smart. I am not allowed to say anything to the grandparents because I am not blood.
Covid Medical Bills Are About to Get Bigger
(Basically, this is because vaccines are available, it is said.
Therefore, you could be getting shots to avoid expensive hospital care.
If you don’t it’ll be on you.)
Americans will most likely pay significantly more for Covid medical care during this new wave of cases — whether that’s a routine coronavirus test or a lengthy hospitalization.
Earlier in the pandemic, most major health insurers voluntarily waived costs associated with a Covid treatment. Patients didn’t have to pay their normal co-payments or deductibles for emergency room visits or hospital stays.
Most Covid tests were free, too.
The landscape has since changed, as the pandemic persists into its second year. Federal law still requires insurers to cover testing at no cost to the patient when there is a medical reason for seeking care, such as exposure to the disease or a display of symptoms. But more of the tests sought now don’t meet the definition of “medical reason” and are instead for monitoring. …
It’s obvious from the first set of graphs that the best way to get people vaccinated is to raise their pay from <50k to at least 100k.
interesting to me that the invincibles who resist vaccination also resist Social Security because they are never going to get old and they will be rich when they do and love their jobs too much to want to retire anyway.
:<)
Invincibility fades with old age, but even faster with early death.
ron
too true. but invincible stupidity is forever.
Cob,
Apparently and I fear bipartisan as well.
Ron
you’ll get no argument from me.