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Open thread July 20, 2021

Dan Crawford | July 20, 2021 6:39 am

Tags: open thread Comments (19) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
19 Comments
  • Fred C. Dobbs says:
    July 20, 2021 at 7:21 am

    Top U.S. financial regulators met on Monday to discuss stablecoins, asset-backed digital currencies that are exploding in popularity so quickly that the government is struggling to keep up — and that economic officials increasingly see as a risk to financial stability.

    Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that derive their value from an underlying currency or basket of assets, and they have long been a point of unique concern. When news broke in 2018 and 2019 that Facebook was looking into creating a stablecoin, the Federal Reserve and other regulators took note, worried that the project could gain scale rapidly. Pressure to develop a framework for overseeing them has ramped up even more recently, as prominent stablecoins including Tether and Binance have exploded in popularity.

    The Treasury Department announced on Friday that Secretary Janet L. Yellen would convene a meeting of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets to discuss regulators’ work on stablecoins. That group includes Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, and the leaders of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Monday’s meeting was expanded to include the heads of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

    Meeting participants “discussed the rapid growth of stablecoins, potential uses of stablecoins as a means of payment, and potential risks to end-users, the financial system, and national security,” according to a Treasury statement released after the meeting on Monday. Ms. Yellen “underscored the need to act quickly to ensure there is an appropriate U.S. regulatory framework in place.”

    Mr. Powell has been particularly outspoken about the need for better oversight of stablecoins and said repeatedly during two congressional appearances last week that they are inadequately regulated.

    “If we’re going to have something that looks just like a money-market fund, or a bank deposit, a narrow bank, and it’s growing really fast, we really ought to have appropriate regulation — and today we don’t,” he said during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

    Eric Rosengren, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, has similarly warned about Tether, arguing that it relies on underlying financial assets that could experience investor runs in times of trouble. New York’s attorney general said earlier this year that Tether had misled investors by claiming to be fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times.

    The Treasury said that the working group expects to issue recommendations in the coming months for stablecoins. The group has previously warned stablecoin operators that they need to maintain adequate cash reserves to back their offerings.

    The Fed could also try to elbow aside digital offerings by offering its own alternative.

    The central bank is looking into a digital currency offering, which would probably function much like the digital cash you spend when you swipe your debit card. But where that debit card money ties back to the commercial banking system, the central bank digital currency would have direct backing from the Fed, just like physical cash does. …

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/19/business/stablecoins-regulation.html

    As stablecoins explode in popularity, regulators prepare a response 

  • Fred C. Dobbs says:
    July 20, 2021 at 8:07 am

    (CNN)The surge in Covid-19 cases fueled by the Delta variant and vaccine hesitancy has now led to increasing rates of hospitalizations and deaths.

    Data from Johns Hopkins University shows:– The average number of new Covid-19 cases each day the past week was 32,278. That’s a 66% jump from the average daily rate the previous week, and 145% higher than the rate from two weeks ago.– An average of 258 Americans died from Covid-19 each day this past week — up 13% from the rate of daily deaths the previous week.Louisiana hospital: Our Covid-19 patients are getting younger— And 24,923 people are hospitalized with Covid-19, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services. That’s a 26% increase from last week and a 50% increase from two weeks ago.There’s a common theme among those behind the worsening Covid-19 numbers, said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:”This is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” Walensky said at a Covid-19 briefing Friday.Covid-19 vaccine myths: These reasons for not getting a shot don’t hold up and will set the US backMore than 97% of people getting hospitalized with Covid-19 now are unvaccinated, Walensky said.And 99.5% of deaths are among the unvaccinated, US Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said Sunday.Getting people vaccinated as quickly as possible “is our fastest, most effective way out of this pandemic,” Murthy said. …

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/19/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html 

    Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths are increasing, and the vast majority were not vaccinated 

  • Fred C. Dobbs says:
    July 20, 2021 at 8:17 am

    Two months after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said vaccinated individuals didn’t need to wear masks in most settings, a growing number of experts are warning it’s time to put them back on.

    First, there was Los Angeles County, where the rising menace posed by the delta variant of the coronavirus prompted health officials to reimpose a mask mandate. Then, Bay Area health officers on Friday recommended that residents of seven counties and the city of Berkeley, Calif., resume wearing masks indoors. Mask mandates are being discussed, too, in coronavirus hot spots such as Arkansas and Missouri, where cases have sharply increased in recent weeks and many residents remain unvaccinated. …

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/19/nation/mask-mandates-make-return-along-with-controversy/?event=event25

     

    Mask mandates make a return — along with controversy 

    • run75441 says:
      July 20, 2021 at 10:37 am

      Fred:

      Still have a good supply

  • rjs says:
    July 20, 2021 at 9:47 pm

    reposting this earlier comment here: 

    Pam Martens documents some of the problems with the unequivocal statement from the big pharma apologists at FDA and CDC that ” Virtually all COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are among those who are unvaccinated.”

    On July 19, NBC News reported that “151 people in Illinois have died due to COVID-19 or complications after being fully vaccinated. That figure equates to 2.2% of COVID-19 deaths in the state since Jan. 1, officials said. At least 563 fully vaccinated people have been hospitalized in Illinois,” according to the Illinois Department of Public Health.

    According to a report from the Department of Health and Social Services in Alaska, from February 1 to June 30, 2021, they classified 656 COVID cases as VB cases. The report notes that “Seventeen persons with VB infections were hospitalized and two died (both had substantial comorbidities).” Seventeen hospitalizations out of 656 VB cases represents 2.5 percent.

    Another troubling report was released yesterday by Kentucky’s Lexington-Fayette County Health Department. According to an NBC News affiliate, that Health Department reported “a growing number of ‘breakthrough’ COVID-19 cases, which are positive cases found in people who are fully vaccinated. The health department said about 20-25% of new cases are considered breakthrough.”

    Those are deeply troubling statistics for vaccines that were originally promoted in the U.S. as being more than 90 percent effective.

    Last Friday, the Salt Lake Tribune in Utah reported these troubling statistics:

    “Breakthrough cases are up in a big way in Utah. Cases among vaccinated people are still much less common than those among unvaccinated people, but both are growing, due to the Delta variant and its increased level of contagiousness.

    “Basically, we’re seeing between 50 and 100 cases per day among the vaccinated, and 300 to 600 cases per day among the unvaccinated.”

    On July 13, a CBS news local affiliate station reported that in Provincetown, Massachusetts, “entire homes of visitors over the Fourth have tested positive, despite being fully vaccinated.”

    The effectiveness of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is also coming under scrutiny. Yankee players and staff were vaccinated with the J&J vaccine in early April. On May 13, the MLB announced that a Yankee player, three coaches and four members of the travelling staff (all fully vaccinated) had tested positive for COVID-19.

    that something like this was going on was evident in the data…we are now getting the accompanying anecdotes…

  • rjs says:
    July 20, 2021 at 9:49 pm

    also: 

    The largest challenge to the unequivocal statement from the FDA and CDC came on July 5 from the Israel Ministry of Health. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was used in Israel. It was also one of the vaccines used widely in the U.S. The Israel Ministry of Health said this about that vaccine:

    “From the epidemiological analysis by public health services in the Ministry of Health, it is evident that since June 6th there was marked decline in the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing infection (64%) and symptomatic illness (64%). This decline has been observed simultaneously with the spread of the Delta variant in Israel.

    The Israel study suggests that persons who were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine still have a 36 percent chance of getting COVID and a 7 percent chance of serious illness or hospitalization.

    • Fred C. Dobbs says:
      July 21, 2021 at 6:47 am

      Researchers in the United States have conducted a study showing that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines developed by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna generate a coordinated adaptive immune response that is capable of eliciting recall responses to future infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

      The team from the University of California found that immunization with either Pfizer-BioNTech’s BNT162b2 or Moderna’s mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced enrichment of spike-specific B cells.

      The viral spike protein mediates the initial stage of the SARS-CoV-2 infection process and is the primary target of antibodies following natural infection or vaccination. …

      https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210718/Pfizer-BioNTech-and-Moderna-COVID-19-vaccines-establish-recall-responses-to-reinfection.aspx

      Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines establish recall responses to reinfection 

      • Fred C. Dobbs says:
        July 21, 2021 at 6:56 am

        … There is growing evidence that people who have received COVID-19 vaccines are less likely to become infected with the virus that causes this disease and that if they do, they are less likely to have symptoms of severe illness.

        However, evidence is also emerging that existing vaccines may offer less protection against new variants of SARS-CoV-2, such as the delta variant.

        One studyTrusted Source, for example, showed that 95% of people who received both doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine had a weaker immune response to the delta variant than to previous strains. …

        https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/are-covid-19-vaccine-boosters-the-way-forward

         

  • Fred C. Dobbs says:
    July 21, 2021 at 6:38 am

    Here’s a riddle: What is both too hot and too cold? The answer: the United States economy in the summer of 2021.

    That is the common thread that comes through in economic data; shifts in financial markets; anecdotes from businesses; and experiences of ordinary people who are simultaneously enjoying higher incomes and facing higher prices and shortages.

    In the mid-2021 economy, employers are offering higher pay to attract scarce workers; airports and car lots are bustling; and a G.D.P. report due out next week will probably show blockbuster growth. It is also an economy in which inflation is outstripping pay gains for many workers; the share of the population working remains far below prepandemic levels; and bond markets are priced at levels that suggest a high risk of returning to sluggish growth in the years ahead.

    Essentially, the economy is having a harder time rebooting itself than had seemed likely in the heady days of spring, when many Americans were getting vaccinated and stimulus payments hit checking accounts. 

    The Biden administration and the Federal Reserve are betting that they can achieve a smooth transition to an economy that enjoys prosperity without frustratingly high inflation. But for that to happen, a huge mismatch — between economywide demand for goods and services, and the supply of them — will need to be resolved. It’s not clear how long that will take.

    “I think we should have expected there to be frictions in getting the economy reopened after this unprecedented shock,” said Karen Dynan, a Harvard economist and a former official at the Federal Reserve and Treasury. “We’ve seen serious frictions, and it’s totally reasonable to expect those frictions to continue.”

    Consumer demand for goods, and increasingly services, is exceptionally high, as Americans spend their pent-up savings, government stimulus payments and higher wages. Retail sales were 20 percent higher last month than in June 2019. 

    But businesses have had a harder time increasing production to fulfill that demand than forecasters were expecting in the spring. This has been particularly glaring in the case of cars, where a shortage of microchips has constrained production. 

    But supply shortages are evident across all sorts of industries. The latest surveyof manufacturers from the Institute for Supply Management cites complaints from makers of furniture, chemical products, machinery and electrical products about the difficulties of fulfilling demand. … 

     

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/21/upshot/economy-analysis-shortages-inflation.html?smid=tw-share

     

    Is the U.S. Economy Too Hot or Too Cold? Yes. 

    The economy is a riddle, but clearly it’s having a harder time rebooting itself than had seemed possible in the spring. 

    Neil Irwin 

    July 21, 2021 

  • Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
    July 21, 2021 at 7:03 am

    The one thing that long complex global supply chains can produce far more than any domestic supply chain is points of failure in response to a global economic shock.  Keynes warned us of many more things than just this, but we ignored the rest of them too.

    • run75441 says:
      July 21, 2021 at 10:26 am

      So does run75441 warn of supply chain issues in general. Lived it longer than Keynes did.

      • Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
        July 23, 2021 at 1:15 pm

        https://www.wired.com/story/decades-offshoring-led-mask-shortage-pandemic/

         

        Tom Simonite

        Business
        03.29.2020 07:00 AM

        How Decades of Offshoring Led to a Mask Shortage in a Pandemic

        US companies have shifted production overseas, especially to China. We got cheaper products. But now we can’t make vital health care supplies….

        [While we are playing greatest hits.  This one gave me big laugh back in the opening season for the pandemic.]

        • Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
          July 23, 2021 at 1:18 pm

          Realizing this fifty years ago might have done some good; kind of like climate change.  It’s all over now Baby Blue.

  • Eric377 says:
    July 21, 2021 at 10:51 am

    Not sure of the sales pitch really.  LOOK OUT!  DELTA, DELTA, DELTA!  Also it works a lot less well against DELTA.

  • coberly says:
    July 21, 2021 at 1:41 pm

    A lot here to unpack. I have no reason to believe my attempt to unpack will be better than anyone else’s, but here are a few thoughts to throw into the mix.

    I don’t understand bit-coin, but I don’t see how a country can tolerate a rival currency to the one it controls…contolling curency being one of the ways it prevents both inflation and recession.  Since bitcoin is not backed by taxes, taxes are not backed by bitcoin.  This could lead to serious problems.

    The information about vaccines is becoming confusing.  It may well be the case that vaccination is much, much better than no vaccination.  But it might be harder to sell that idea to people who already have no faith in “the government,”  whether that makes them stupid or not.

    As for hot and cold and supply chains:  First, I wonder if our economists ever take hard looks at exactly how our economy works, I did not expect the supply chain problem. I did expect the “stimulus” to the rich problem.

    and that leads to Second:  is their evidence that our economy..the masters of the universe… no longer respond to anything like the real economy because they are insulated from it, and spend their money (that is make investments) according to pure gambling principles and not “rational expectations”?  It may not be only the supply chain that is too long,  but the money chain is too long to respond to local needs and conditions.

  • Fred C. Dobbs says:
    July 22, 2021 at 6:32 am

    On the matter of Tom Brady, Joe Biden and former president Trump…

    Mrs Fred found this explanation in the NY Mag Intelligencer:

    Tom Brady visited the White House Tuesday to celebrate the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning the Super Bowl, where he joked around with President Biden at Donald Trump’s expense. It was a scene straight out of a Donald Trump nightmare, and quite possibly the worst day of Donald Trump’s life.

    To grasp why such an anodyne scene would produce such a wounding effect on a man who has endured misfortunes such as bankruptcy, losing a presidential election, two impeachments, and innumerable legal setbacks, one needs to understand his peculiar psychology. Here, in rough order, is Trump’s hierarchy of needs:

    1. To be treated as a winner

    2. To pal around with celebrities

    3. To not be laughed at

    4. To gain the specific approval of Tom Brady …

    … In Trump’s mind, Biden is a pathetic loser, and he is the winner. Like Tom Brady.

    Yet here was Brady, inverting the whole hierarchy. Biden is the winner, like Brady, and Winners now are guys who get called sleepy by the Losers for making a small mistake on the way to their triumph. …

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2021/07/tom-brady-joins-president-biden-at-white-house-to-mock-trump.html

     

  • Fred C. Dobbs says:
    July 22, 2021 at 6:50 am

    Three questions rippling through the US Senate on Wednesday were an encapsulation of the dysfunction plaguing the chamber. The conversations went as follows:

    — Will the body delay, once again, a vote on infrastructure that the majority of Senators support, a month after a bipartisan deal was announced at the White House?

    — How is it possible that one senator could single-handedly hold up 60 diplomatic nominations, as Senator Ted Cruz did this month? This at a moment when the United States is trying to counter China, stand up to Russian aggression, leave Afghanistan, contain Iran, strengthen alliances in Asia and Europe, and stem increased migration from Central America. 

    Three questions rippling through the US Senate on Wednesday were an encapsulation of the dysfunction plaguing the chamber. The conversations went as follows:

    — Will the body delay, once again, a vote on infrastructure that the majority of Senators support, a month after a bipartisan deal was announced at the White House?

    — How is it possible that one senator could single-handedly hold up 60 diplomatic nominations, as Senator Ted Cruz did this month? This at a moment when the United States is trying to counter China, stand up to Russian aggression, leave Afghanistan, contain Iran, strengthen alliances in Asia and Europe, and stem increased migration from Central America. 

    Progressive critics are quick to point out all three signs of dysfunction are being driven by Republicans. But on a deeper level, it’s about why the Senate operates in a way that allows for moves like these to happen in the first place. After all, during the Trump administration Democrats were able to stifle a lot of the Republican agenda using the same tactics, like the filibuster and holds on nominations. In fact, Democrats set recordsfor the amount of gridlock in the Senate while Trump was president.  … 

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/21/nation/us-senate-is-structurally-broken-its-not-just-filibuster/?event=event25

    The US Senate is structurally broken. And it’s not just the filibuster 

    • run75441 says:
      July 22, 2021 at 10:01 am

      Fred

      Did you mean to ask the same questions twice?

  • coberly says:
    July 23, 2021 at 2:32 pm

    Ron

     

    “realizing this fifty years ago…”

     

    Yep.  goddam ads won’t let me see what i am writing.  there were people fifty years ago who warned us.

     

    I think there

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